Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees (-135, 8)
The Braves (70-45) just swept the Marlins, winning yesterday’s series finale 11-3 as -165 home favorites. On the other hand, the Yankees (64-51) just dropped two of three against the Cardinals, losing the series finale 3-1 as -160 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Braves hand the ball to newly acquired righty Tyler Mahle (4-3, 3.12 ERA) and the Yankees go with lefty Max Fried (4-3, 3.12 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -115 road favorite and New York a -105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Yankees, steaming New York up from -105 home dog to a -135 home favorite, with some shops touching as high as -140.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 57% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is only taking in 41% of moneyline bets but a whopping 92% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Bronx Bombers, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
Friday night home favorites off a loss, like the Yankees here, are 66-39 (63%) with an 8% ROI this season.
New York also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Yankees were off yesterday while the Braves played the Marlins in Atlanta and now travel to New York.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off facing a team who played the previous day are 33-17 (66%) with a 12% ROI this season.
New York offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Fried has posted a 1.98 ERA in night games compared to 6.20 in day games.
7:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-140, 7.5) at Chicago White Sox
The Guardians (57-59) just got swept by the Mets, losing yesterday’s series finale 13-6 as -125 home favorites. Similarly, the White Sox (59-55) just got swept by the Red Sox, dropping yesterday’s series finale 12-11 in 13 innings as +170 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Guardians tap lefty Parker Messick (8-6, 2.57 ERA) and the White Sox counter with lefty Noah Schultz (3-8, 5.82 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -125 road favorite and Chicago a +105 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Guardians laying short road chalk, pushing Cleveland up from -125 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 56% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 73% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Friday night road favorites, like the Guardians here, are 40-23 (64%) with an 11% ROI this season.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the Friday night favorite has gone 37-16 (70%) with a 20% ROI this season.
Cleveland offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Messick has posted a 1.60 ERA in his last five starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 28.2 innings pitched. He has a 2.20 ERA on the road compared to 2.90 at home.
On the other hand, Schultz has posted a 6.88 ERA in his last six starts, giving up 23 earned runs in 30.1 innings pitched.
Cleveland enjoys a sneak “rest vs tired” advantage, having played an early 1:10 p.m. ET game yesterday while the White Sox played a 13-inning marathon against the Red Sox that lasted nearly 4.5 hours and didn’t end until nearly midnight.
8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-145, 7.5)
The Orioles (56-59) just took two of three against the Angels but failed to complete the sweep, dropping yesterday’s series finale 4-1 as -180 home favorites. Similarly, the Rangers (57-58) just took two of three against the Giants, winning the series finale 6-0 as -155 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Orioles start righty Shane Baz (4-10, 3.86 ERA) and the Rangers go with fellow righty Nathan Eovaldi (10-9, 4.31 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -135 home favorite and Baltimore a +115 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Rangers at home, pushing Texas up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Rangers are taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
When both teams are below .500 and both missed the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the home favorite off a win has gone 41-22 (65%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Texas also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Rangers were off yesterday while the Orioles played in Baltimore and now travel to Texas.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off facing a team who played the previous day are 33-17 (66%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Texas offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Rangers are 30-26 at home. The Orioles are 24-29 on the road.
