Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 15 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games tonight.
Top MLB Resources:
7:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at New York Mets (-135, 8.5)
The Royals (9-4) have won seven straight games and just swept the Astros, winning Thursday’s series finale 13-3 as +110 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Mets (5-7) just took two of three against the Braves, crushing Atlanta 16-4 in yesterday’s series finale as +140 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague Series opener, Kansas City starts righty Michael Wacha (1-0, 2.25 ERA) and New York counters with fellow righty Luis Severino (0-1, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -125 home favorite and the Royals a +105 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the red-hot Royals at a plus-money price. However, despite 66% of bets taking Kansas City, we’ve seen the line move further toward New York (-125 to -135). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Mets, with pros fading the trendy dog Royals and instead backing New York at home. Interleague favorites off a win, like the Mets here, are 232-143 (62%) since the start of last season. Pros are also leaning over, as we’ve seen the total rise from 8 to 8.5. The over is receiving 72% of bets and 84% of money. The forecast calls for high 50s, partly cloudy skies and 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right center at Citi Field.
9:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks (-125, 9)
The Cardinals (6-7) just dropped two of three against the Phillies, losing the series finale 4-3 as +120 home dogs. On the flip side, the Diamondbacks (6-7) just took two of three against the Rockies, winning the finale 5-3 as -115 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, St. Louis hands the ball to lefty Steven Matz (1-0, 1.74 ERA) and Arizona goes with righty Brandon Pfaadt (1-0, 5.06 ERA). This line opened with the Diamondbacks listed as a -115 home favorite and the Cardinals a +105 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on the Snakes laying short chalk at home, steaming Arizona up from -115 to -125. The Diamondbacks are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support. Arizona has a big edge on offense, hitting .266 vs .219 for St. Louis. Arizona has scored 74 runs while St. Louis has scored only 50 runs. The Diamondbacks also have the slightly better pitching staff (team ERA 3.88 vs 3.99). When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 449-271 (62%) since 2020. Arizona also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team expected to win.
9:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Oakland Athletics (-130, 8)
The Nationals (5-7) just took two of three against the Giants but lost the series finale 7-1 as +175 road dogs. Similarly, the Athletics (5-8) just took two of three against the Rangers, winning yesterday’s series finale 1-0 as as +170 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague Series opener, Washington taps righty Jake Irvin (0-1, 5.73 ERA) and Oakland counters with fellow righty Paul Blackburn (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -120 home favorite and the Nationals a +110 road dog. The public sees two bad teams and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite a 50/50 ticket split we’ve seen the line creep up in favor of Oakland -120 to -130. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So we know, based on the move, that the bigger, sharper wagers are laying the chalk with the Athletics at home. Oakland has value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Oakland also has the better pitching staff (team ERA 4.00 vs 5.03). Interleague favorites off a win are 232-143 (62%) since 2023. The Athletics are 2-0 in Blackburn’s first two starts. The Nationals are 0-2 in Irvin’s first two starts. Oakland has won four of their last five games.
