Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s MLB slate…
7:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-115, 9.5)
The Yankees (39-30) just split a two-game series at the Mets, losing 4-3 on Wednesday as a -110 road favorite. On the flip side, the Red Sox (34-35) just dropped two of three at home against the Rockies but won 6-3 on Wednesday, cashing as -230 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, New York goes with righty Domingo German (4-3, 3.49 ERA) and Boston sends out fellow righty Tanner Houck (3-6, 5.23 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a -110 home favorite and the Yankees a +100 road dog. The public is all over New York at the short dog price. However, despite 64% of bets taking the Yankees the line has actually moved further to the Red Sox -110 to -115. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Boston, with pros fading the trendy dog Yankees and instead backing the Red Sox at home. When both teams had the previous day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 62-33 (65%) this season, producing a 7% ROI. The Red Sox have the edge at the plate, hitting .259 versus .232 for the Yankees. Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 9 to 9.5. The over is receiving 35% of bets but 70% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to center. The over is 22-13 (63%) at Fenway Park. When two AL East teams face off the over is 33-23 (59%).
9:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 7.5) at San Diego Padres
The Rays (50-22) just split a four-game series at the Athletics, winning 4-3 on Thursday as -210 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Padres (33-35) just took two of three at home against the Guardians but lost 8-6 yesterday as -118 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, Tampa Bay hands the ball to lefty ace Shane McClanahan (10-1, 2.18 ERA) and San Diego counters with righty Yu Darvish (5-4, 4.30 ERA). This line opened at a pick’em with both sides listed at roughly -110 odds. Sharps have pounced on the Rays at the short chalk price, steaming Tampa Bay up from -110 to -120. The Rays are receiving 77% of bets and 86% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Interleague road favorites are 65-34 (66%) this season, producing a 12% ROI. AL East teams facing non-AL East teams are 147-87 (63%), producing a 9% ROI. The Rays are 46-18 as a favorite, 39-19 against righties and 19-15 on the road. Tampa Bay has the edge at the plate, hitting .264 versus .229 for San Diego. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -115. The Padres are 42-22 (66%) to the under, the best under team in baseball.
