Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s MLB action…
7:45 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-130, 8) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Giants (33-32) just dropped two of three at home against the Cubs but avoided the sweep with a 13-3 win on Sunday, cashing as -150 home favorites. Similarly, the Cardinals (27-39) just lost two of three at home against the Reds, losing 4-3 yesterday as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Giants turn to righty Logan Webb (4-6, 3.09 ERA) and the Cardinals counter with lefty Matthew Liberatore (1-2, 6.00 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -120 road favorite and St. Louis a +110 home dog. Pros have pounced on the Giants at a cheap chalk price, steaming San Francisco up from -120 to -130. The Giants are receiving 60% of bets but 70% of money, signaling slight public support but also heavy smart money. Non-division road favorites are 95-61 (61%) this season, producing a 10% ROI. Both teams are hitting .250. The difference comes on the mound, with the Giants sporting a 3.95 team ERA compared to 4.28 for the Cardinals. San Francisco is 10-6 against lefties. St. Louis is 20-29 against righties. Sharps have also leaned under, as the total has fallen from 8.5 to 8 at some shops. Currently 43% of bets but 91% of money is taking the under, a massive sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. The Cardinals are 11-4 to the under in their last 15 games. The Giants are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games.
8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-155, 9.5)
The Angels (36-31) just took two of three at home against the Mariners, winning 9-4 yesterday as +100 home dogs. On the other hand, the Rangers (41-23) just dropped two of three at the Rays, losing 7-3 yesterday as +170 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, Los Angeles starts lefty Tyler Anderson (3-1, 5.62 ERA) and Texas goes with righty Dane Dunning (5-1, 2.52 ERA). This line opened with the Rangers listed as a -150 home favorite and the Angels a +135 road dog. Pros are banking on Texas to get back on track at home, quietly driving the Rangers up from -150 to -155. Currently 77% of bets and 93% of money is laying the chalk with Texas, indicating a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. The Rangers are 25-11 as a favorite, 12-7 against lefties and 21-9 at home. Texas has the edge at the plate (hitting .274 vs .257) and on the mound (team ERA 3.71 vs 4.21). Sharps are also leaning over, as the total is 9.5 with the over juiced to -115. The over is 19-10 (66%) at Globe Life Park this season. Texas is 4-1 to the over their last five games. Los Angeles is 6-2 to the over in their last eight road games.
