Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday May 10

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday’s MLB slate…

 

1:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 8) at Milwaukee Brewers

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Brewers (20-16) won the opener 9-3, cashing as -115 home favorites. Then the Dodgers (22-15) bounced back with a 6-2 win on Tuesday, taking care of business as -120 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, Los Angeles starts lefty Clayton Kershaw (5-2, 2.53 ERA) and Milwaukee counters with fellow lefty Wade Miley (3-1, 2.31 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -150 road favorite and the Brewers a +125 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Los Angeles, steaming the Dodgers up from -150 to -165. The Dodgers are receiving roughly 75% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division road favorites are 86-55 (61%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 129-72 (64%). Los Angeles also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. 

 

4:07 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-125, 9.5) at Los Angeles Angels

The Angels (20-17) took the series opener 6-4, cashing as +110 home dogs. Then the Astros (18-18) bounced back with a 3-1 victory yesterday, winning as +120 road dogs. In this late afternoon rubber match, Houston taps righty Cristian Javier (2-1, 3.54 ERA) while Los Angeles trots out fellow righty Griffin Canning (2-0, 5.31 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed at -110 odds. Respected money has pounced on the Astros at the short price, steaming Houston up from -110 to -125. The Astros are receiving 66% of bets but 88% of money, a notable smart money discrepancy in their favor. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who did not are 63-38 (62%) this season. Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 9 to 9.5. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to dead center. The over is 5-2 in the last seven Angels game.