Brewers vs. Rays
My good friend and former colleague Ben Wilson, a Wisconsin native, texted me last night after the eight-run fifth inning from the Brewers and said, “This is an out-of-body experience.” His childhood team sits on the precipice of the first World Series win in franchise history. Years of innovation, scouting, player development, and a little bit of good fortune have all come together to give the Brewers a 3-0 lead over the Rays in the World Series and it just might be all over tonight.
Tropicana Field sounded like American Family Field South for Game 3 and you know any Brewers fans in the area or those with the means are looking to get Game 4 tickets on the secondary market. They were loud in that fifth inning, as the Brewers did what the Brewers do – put balls in play and run the bases hard. Meanwhile, the lone highlight for the Rays was Yandy Diaz bat-flipping an RBI double down by 10 runs.
Brewers (-125, 7) vs. Rays World Series Game 4 Prediction
Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Milwaukee hadn’t announced a starter as of 6:30 a.m. PT when I started writing up this preview. I’m not saying that they want to give the Rays any life in this series, but they do have some wiggle room, especially with Jacob Misiorowski set for Game 5 and then Logan Henderson for Game 6. Hell, even Robert Gasser for Game 7 seems safe with his six shutout innings in Game 3.
Dustin May will factor in some capacity. Monday night was special for the Brewers, not just because of the 10-1 win and the 3-0 series lead, but because the only relievers needed after Gasser were Antonio Senzatela and Brandon Woodruff. That means Pat Murphy has his entire bullpen at his disposal. May threw 12 pitches in Saturday’s game, so I expect him to go multiple innings here in some form or fashion.
Using the left-handed Gasser pushed Rays manager Kevin Cash into an interesting situation, as he sat down Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, and Richie Palacios, who have been some of the team’s better hitters this postseason. Do we see the Brewers start left-hander Shane Drohan or maybe look for two innings from DL Hall to try and get Cash to overmanage again? Hall, along with fellow lefty JoJo Romero, worked on Saturday, throwing 11 and 16 pitches, respectively. Two days off for Aaron Ashby, who is having one of the best postseasons of all-time, also gives Murphy the runway to use him going for the killshot.
Milwaukee has been so well-prepared in every facet for this series. They are up to .327/.400/.430, while Tampa is batting .187/.237/.264. Tampa has scored seven runs. Four came in the first inning of Game 2 and they didn’t score again after that.
Not only was yesterday ideal for the Brewers from a relief corps standpoint, it was a rough one for the Rays. Closer Bryan Baker hasn’t been used at all in the series and Kevin Kelly and Ian Seymour have had two days off, but five relievers were needed in the blowout loss. Griffin Jax gets the start, as he’s allowed four runs on six hits over six playoff innings with a 6/3 K/BB ratio. Petey Halpin hit the big two-run homer off of him in Game 3 of the ALCS to give the Guardians a 2-1 series lead, which they squandered. Jax was good up until Cash pushed him a bit too far.
As a starter, Jax allowed a .253/.293/.342 slash the first time through the order in 206 plate appearances. The second time through, he allowed a .217/.284/.428 slash with nine of the 12 homers he allowed as a starter. I’m curious to see how much runway he gets here. The primary pitches for Jax are the sweeper, sinker, changeup, and four-seam fastball. Lefties slashed .248/.300/.404 against him with a .307 wOBA and righties put up a .216/.286/.346 slash with a .281 wOBA.
I would assume Jax goes sweeper-heavy here, as the Brewers only batted .215 with a .396 SLG and a .276 wOBA against that pitch. They’ve seen sinkers and changeups a lot in this series already. Interestingly, Jax only threw eight sweepers against Cleveland, accounting for about half of his regular-season usage of the pitch. He only had four Whiffs in 27 swings. He must not have really had a feel for the pitch or the Rays wanted to make an adjustment because he had 20% usage of the pitch the first time through the order and then 3% the second time through, when he really ramped up his sinker usage.
Jax did have 39% sweeper usage against RHB and just 16% against LHB during the season. He’ll see six lefties in the lineup tonight, which means he’ll go sinker/changeup with those guys and probably attack Jackson Chourio and William Contreras, the MVP co-favorites as of this morning, with sweepers. It’s a good way to attack both. Chourio batted just .185 with a .370 SLG and a .236 wOBA against sweepers, while Contreras batted just .161 with a .339 SLG and a .230 wOBA.
I think the Brewers do finish the series off tonight, but it’ll be a tight one. I’ll take them -125, but I do like Under 7 as well. I think Jax actually matches up okay with Milwaukee. I don’t expect the Rays to do much offensively and Murphy will look to end the series tonight with some aggressive reliever usage if the opportunity presents itself.
Remember, we had a 2-0 game before a bad decision by Junior Caminero and a lazy stretch by Ben Williamson opened the floodgates for a barrage of bloops, bleeders, and grounders that found holes.
Picks: Brewers -125; Under 7 (-105)
