Cincinnati Reds 2025 preview
The Cincinnati Reds head into the 2025 season with a new manager. Terry Francona, who spent more than a decade up I-71 in Cleveland, takes over after David Bell was fired with five games left last season. Francona and the Guardians mutually parted ways under the assumption that the 65-year-old was stepping away to focus on his health.
Personally, I think that the Guardians were ready to move on. This is going to be an opinion-based blurb from me, but as the Guardians were losing their veterans, Francona wasn’t a good fit anymore. I don’t think he has a lot of time for younger players at his advanced age and he didn’t have the same voices in the clubhouse that he once did to keep everybody in line. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Stephen Vogt came in and re-energized the ballclub.
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Francona is absolutely a Cooperstown candidate and has an impressive resume. I don’t know how good of a fit this is. He signed a three-year deal with a club option and I have no doubt that there will be a honeymoon period. The Reds have two winning seasons since their last playoff appearance in a 162-game season and won just 82 and 83 games in those campaigns. This is a cheap ownership group, which is at least something that Francona is accustomed to dealing with. And he’s familiar with the Spring Training complex, which is near his Arizona home and is shared with the Guardians.
I do like some of the moves that the Reds made and their biggest opponent over the last few years seems to have been the injury bug, especially on the pitching side. Beyond that, how does this team take a step forward? Is Francona enough to help it along?
2025 Cincinnati Reds Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 20)
World Series: +10000
NL Pennant: +5000
NL Central: +650
Win Total: 78.5 (-110/-110)
Make Playoffs: Yes +300 / No -400
Cincinnati Reds Preview: Offense
The Reds finished last season 20th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+. Because wRC+ is a park-adjusted metric, and Great American Ball Park is known as a strong venue for hitters, the Reds are graded on a curve. And they did not grade out well with that curve at home. They weren’t very good on the road either. Even with a helpful home venue, the Reds fell short of 700 runs and actually scored 84 fewer runs than they did in 2023.
The pitching staff made huge strides, which I’ll talk about later, but the offense continued to be a handicap for the team. Quite simply, the offense struck out too much and didn’t walk enough. This was a team that finished third in stolen bases with 207, 29 more than the team in fourth. This was a team that hit 174 home runs. But, also a team that had the seventh-highest K% and only had an 8.3% BB%.
We’re actually seeing fewer walks league-wide these days, so they were actually good enough for 10th, but you’d like to see a higher BB% with that type of K%. It didn’t help that Matt McLain, who is probably the second-best hitter on the team, missed the entire season recovering from a shoulder injury. McLain had a 127 wRC+ in 403 PA in his rookie year back in 2023 after decimating Triple-A pitching.
He’s back and should have more help from other newcomers Gavin Lux and Austin Hays. I really like Lux, who gets a fair shake and a new shot in Cincy after being completely overshadowed by all the big names in LA. He adds a dynamic of contact coupled with plate discipline and a little bit of pop. Hays is a platoon bat, which fits Francona’s managerial style well, so he should be a fairly productive player.
Obviously, the star is Elly De La Cruz, who strikes out a lot, but still hit 25 homers and stole 67 bases. He’s also morphed into a really good defender. He had 6.4 fWAR to lead the Reds. Tyler Stephenson was next with 3.0 fWAR and Jonathan India had 2.8. There seemed to be talk every year of trading India and it finally happened, as he’s now in Kansas City.
Admittedly, there is room for growth from this offense with McLain, Lux, and maybe a stronger season from Spencer Steer and Jake Fraley. There aren’t any objectively bad hitters, just not a whole lot of high-ceiling guys beyond De La Cruz. There is a path in which the Reds are a better offensive version of last year’s Royals, with De La Cruz playing the role of Bobby Witt Jr. and the supporting cast providing more assistance. I’ll believe it when I see it, but the potential is there.
Cincinnati Reds Preview: Pitching
Like so many other things with the Reds last season, the pitching staff was pretty average. The 4.09 team ERA was almost exactly the league average (4.08), though the team’s 4.25 FIP was a good bit higher. The Reds had the sixth-highest HR/9, a byproduct of the ballpark, and had average K% and BB% numbers. Cincy allowed the sixth-highest HR/FB% at home and had the fourth-lowest on the road.
Had their offense been better about taking advantage of the friendly confines, then the season may have ended up differently. The Reds’ pitching staff actually shaved off 127 runs year-over-year, so they made some significant strides, as I teased above. A major investment in minor league pitching development has had a lot to do with it, as the Reds have been trying to generate strikeouts and higher spin rates with their young arms.
Cincinnati used 16 different starting pitchers last season and nobody made more than 26 starts. At least the guy who did was Hunter Greene, who was stellar with a 2.75 ERA, 3.03 xERA, and 3.47 FIP. Greene’s development as a frontline starter is exactly what the Reds needed. If he can be paired with league-average numbers from Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo, the Reds are in decent shape. Abbott had a 3.72 ERA last season, but a 5.04 FIP, so he’s a regression candidate, but Lodolo is going the other way with a 4.76 ERA, 3.72 xERA, and 3.95 FIP.
I’m curious to see what the Reds can get out of Brady Singer, who they acquired from the Royals this winter. Singer is a strike-thrower who has a bit of a home run problem for a ground ball guy. I’m not keen on a two-pitch pitcher making roughly 15 starts at Great American Ball Park, especially with a lot of loud contact against. I think the Royals traded high on Singer, to be honest.
Still, there are enough competent arms here for the Reds to finish around the league average again. Top prospect Rhett Lowder is also in the mix. I wouldn’t hate seeing a six-man rotation in hopes of keeping Lodolo and Greene as healthy as possible.
Taylor Rogers is a decent addition to the bullpen with Alexis Diaz as the headliner, but I think this is a below average group on the whole. There are a couple of interesting failed starters in Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers that could pan out, but I don’t view this part of the team as a strength.
Cincinnati Reds Player to Watch
OF TJ Friedl
Friedl is a quietly important piece for the Reds. He had 3.9 fWAR with a .353 wOBA and a 115 wRC+ in 2023, but fell back to 0.2 fWAR and an 88 wRC+ in 2024. He was hurt, which didn’t help. But a major regression in his BABIP and a whole lot less baserunning and defensive value really cut into his profile.
To be honest, the regression was a no doubter. Friedl had a .467 SLG with a .321 xSLG based on his contact authority, and by that I mean that there was none. His 27.6% Hard Hit% and 3.2% Barrel% ranked in the 5th and 7th percentiles, respectively. I think hoping for a bounce back from him is a mistake, though the projection systems do see better offensive and defensive numbers from him.
Cincinnati Reds Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I think this is the most accurate win total line in the division. The Reds are not a .500 team to me, but they’re likely to be in the upper 70s. There just isn’t enough margin for error on this team the way it is currently constructed. I’m also not sure what impact Francona will have. His clubhouse presence was really valued in Cleveland until it wasn’t, as he lost the guys he was closest to on the team. But, that was a Cleveland team coming off of Manny Acta, who was hired for his steadfast belief in analytics. Those clubhouses were said to be bad and there were a ton of losses. We never heard the same really about Bell, who is cut from a similar cloth as Francona, but maybe a little less of a motivator. His father even played with Tito.
I feel like other teams in the Central are either better or got better. I actually think the Reds have a better chance at finishing last in the division than contending for a playoff spot, but there is that 15th or 20th percentile outcome where they are the 2024 Royals reincarnated in the NL with the same health fortunes from the rotation. That being said, I don’t think their floor is low enough to make a bet here, but I don’t think their ceiling is either.
Slight Lean: Under 77.5