Here’s the deal folks-
The days of stacking bonus bets for every home run in a game are gone, but Dinger Tuesday lives on—and it’s still one of the most fun ways to get in on the long ball action each week.
Top MLB Resources:
Throughout this 2025 season, FanDuel is giving out 50% profit boosts on any home run prop—elligible on one bet, every Tuesday. This works on both straight bets or parlays, so if you want to bump up your pay day on a single player, or you’re shooting for a lottery cash, you might as well take advantage of the extra lift.
And that’s not all—DraftKings is also in on the fun, offering a no-sweat bet you can use on home run props. If your bet loses, you get your stake back in bonus bets. All to say there’s a few areas here we can look to exploit.
Let’s caveat one time before we dive in: home runs are volatile. They’re long shots in nature. You’re not building a stable betting portfolio here—you’re chasing upside. However, these bets are fun. And in the end, some of this is meant to be about entertainment. It’s exciting to dive into the stats, handicap the matchups, the ballparks, the conditions, etc. It’s exhilarating when you find an angle, you play the angle and it hits. That’s kind of what sports betting is all about.
So let’s dive into today’s slate.
Time to find a guy.
Weather Report
Let’s start off with some unbelievably great news. (Read: worst news you could get to start the day)
The weather report is not looking great.
According to BallparkPal—a great handicapping tool for baseball bettors—we’ve got tough hitting conditions across much of the country today. I’m talking wind blowing in, low temps, and high barometric pressure (not great for carry). But one game stands out.
Baseball’s most notorious launching pad is showing ideal hitting conditions tonight: no wind, mild temps, low pressure, and just enough humidity to keep the ball going.
Pitcher Report
On the mound, at Coors Field, we’ve got Freddy Peralta vs. Kyle Freeland.
Peralta gave up 26 home runs last season, tied for 14th-most in MLB. Freeland allowed 22—but in just two-thirds the innings. That’s a whole lotta hard contact in a hitter’s park.
Conditions? ✅
Pitchers? ✅
Ballpark? ✅
This one’s got all the ingredients for a dinger or two (or five????).
Let’s break it down even more and find our angle.
First step- I like to analyze the splits. Are we looking for righties or lefties here?
In 2024, Peralta gave up twice as many home runs to righties as he did to lefties. Also convenient enough, Peralta was much worse against batters the first time he faced them. Thirteen of his 26 long balls were given up to first time faced batters. Now what about Freeland?
Freeland gave up over 80% of his homers to righty batters. That’s a massive split.
Batter Report
Let’s see what the odds are saying:
Our options in order (via FanDuel Odds)
- Hunter Goodman +430
- Michael Toglia +480
- Ezequiel Tovar +500
- Brenton Doyle +500
- Ryan McMahon +600
- Nick Martini +750
- Kris Bryant +750
- Zac Veen +750
- Kyle Farmer +800
Hunter Goodman has been ice cold lately—just one hit in his last 16 plate appearances—but I think the day off is exactly what he needed. His underlying numbers still pop, especially his impressive barrel rate.
And for an added bonus, Goodman has one at-bat vs. Peralta in his career which he blasted for a homer. Combine all that with favorable conditions at Coors and a juicy price at +430, and I’m more than willing to take a stab here.
EDIT: Looks like Hunter Goodman will be out of the lineup today. So let’s take a look at another righty. Ezequiel Tovar has 2 home runs in 7 plate appearances against Peralta. With no home runs on the season, yet a strong exit velocity and hard hit%, this could be a good play with his odds hovering around +500.
Brenton Doyle is another name worth considering. He just went deep the other night, so if you’re looking to ride the hot hand, this could be your guy. At +500, the value is definitely there.
Now on the other side.
- Rhys Hoskins +360
- Jackson Chourio +430
- William Contreras +440
- Christian Yelich +520
- Garett Mitchell +680
- Joey Ortiz +750
- Vinny Capra +750
- Sal Frelick +1000
- Brice Turange +1000
I have no idea how we’re going to get away from Jackson Chourio here. Hoskins has a better history against Freeland, going 4/11 vs Chourio’s 0/3, but with a price like +430 I really do love the situation.
I think +360 is a bit too low to play for Hoskins, but if we want to shoot for the stars, there’s only one player on the Brewers who has a homer against Freeland, and that’s Contreras. If you want to play the historical matchup, maybe take a flier on this one, though +440 feels a bit too gross. Ballpark Pal has his true odds at +550, and I would tend to agree.
The Official Picks
Edit: Let’s ride Tovar and Chourio tonight. I think I’ll take them both straight, and parlay them for some fun.
Maybe we’ll find another creative play, in which case I’ll update this article with new angles. But for now those are the plays on this edition of Dinger Tuesday.
Lastly, we’ll always end Dinger Tuesday with two things.
The first-
The Nick Castellanos vs. Tragic Events Home Run Meter
Current status: Low to moderate
The Nick Castellanos home run meme has gotten out of hand recently. As it seems to have expanded from awkward broadcast moments to world events. Nonetheless, it’s funny. After a grand slam bomb the other day, my report is putting today in the moderate to low section.
For those that don’t remember the original:
Now to close it off, the greatest moment in dinger history.
I present Big Al:
