Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 14 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs (-125, 7)
The Blue Jays (37-38) just swept the Red Sox, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as +120 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Cubs (39-36) just took two of three against the Rockies, winning the series finale 8-6 as -210 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s Interleague series opener, the Blue Jays hand the ball to righty Kevin Gausman (4-4, 3.41 ERA) and the Cubs go with fellow righty Ben Brown (3-2, 1.74 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -115 home favorite and Toronto a -105 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Cubs laying short chalk at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -115 to -125.
At Circa, the Cubs are only receiving 24% of moneyline bets but 68% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the Cubs here, are 76-49 (61%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Sweet spot home favorites between -125 and -140 who made the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 50-23 (69%) with a 21% ROI since 2025.
Chicago enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Cubs were off yesterday and continue a homestand while the Blue Jays played the Red Sox yesterday and now must travel to Chicago.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off facing an opponent who played the previous day are 18-10 (64%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Chicago offers additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Brown has posted a 0.87 ERA in two June starts, allowing only 1 earned run in 10.1 innings pitched. Chicago is 11-3 in his last 14 appearances.
The Cubs are 22-16 at home. The Blue Jays are 16-20 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 8)
The Nationals (39-36) just took two of three against the Royals but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 6-2 as -135 home favorites. On the other hand, the Rays (41-30) just got swept by the Dodgers, dropping the series finale 5-4 as +130 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Nationals send out righty Cade Cavalli (4-4, 3.98 ERA) and the Rays turn to fellow righty Griffin Jax (1-5, 3.68 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -120 home favorite and Washington a +100 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Rays laying short chalk at home, driving Tampa Bay up from -120 to -130.
At Circa, Tampa Bay is taking in 55% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the pros in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction is 99-60 (62%) with a 13% ROI this season. Friday night home favorites are 83-47 (64%) with a 9% ROI since 2026.
Friday home favorites -150 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season are 26-14 (65%) with a 16% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, the home favorite is 50-27 (65%) with a 10% ROI.
Tampa Bay offers additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays are 24-9 (73%) at home this season, the best home record in MLB.
9:45 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks (-170, 8.5)
The Twins (36-40) just swept the Rangers, winning yesterday’s series finale 9-3 as -125 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks (38-36) just took two of three against the Angels, winning the series finale 8-1 as -175 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Twins start lefty Connor Prielipp (2-4, 5.26 ERA) and the Diamondbacks counter with righty Michael Soroka (8-3, 3.11 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -160 home favorite and Minnesota a +140 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the hefty price and have laid the wood with the Snakes at home, pushing Arizona up from -160 to -170.
At DraftKings, Arizona is taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Diamondbacks are receiving only 56% of moneyline bets but 89% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Friday night favorites are 83-47 (64%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Arizona also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Diamondbacks were off yesterday and continue a homestand while the Twins played yesterday against the Rangers and now travel to Arizona.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off facing an opponent who played the previous day are 18-10 (64%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off who missed the playoffs the previous season are 57-30 (66%) with an 8% ROI since 2025.
The Diamondbacks are hitting .267 against lefties, the second best average against southpaws in MLB.
Soroka has posted a 2.09 ERA at home compared to 4.54 on the road.
Meanwhile, Prielipp has posted a 7.81 ERA in his last five starts, giving up 21 earned runs in 24.2 innings pitched.
Arizona is 23-15 at home. Minnesota is 16-21 on the road.
