Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, June 19, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 382-192 (66.6%) for +53.15 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-120 vs SF)
Trend: WSH is the most profitable team in the MLB on the road this season (23-14 record, +18.24 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+108 at TB)
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 36-72 (-8.16 units, ROI: -7.6%) in their last 108 tries.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+144 at AZ)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 125-101 for -6.45 units and an ROI of -2.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+101 at CHC), DETROIT (-205 vs CWS), LA ANGELS (+138 at ATH), BOSTON (+102 at SEA)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 40-70 for -36.31 units and an ROI of -33%!
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-120 vs SF)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 82-99 for +8.79 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+119 vs PIT), MINNESOTA (+144 at AZ), BALTIMORE (+169 at LAD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 35-16 for -1.25 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-205 vs CWS), NY YANKEES (-286 vs CIN), LA DODGERS (-207 vs BAL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 20-12 start for -6.73 units, and an ROI of -21%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-207 vs BAL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 145-181 for -20.11 units. This ROI of -5.8% is still highly advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+101 at CHC), ATLANTA (+139 vs MIL), SAN DIEGO (+135 at TEX), CLEVELAND (+104 at HOU), LA ANGELS (+138 at ATH), BOSTON (+102 at SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 125-76 for +34.59 units, an ROI of +17.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-120 vs SF), ST LOUIS (-119 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 92-111 start for -12.67 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 40-52 for -11.17 units and an ROI of -12.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – HOUSTON (-125 vs CLE), KANSAS CITY (-101 vs STL)
3+ games – SAN FRANCISCO (-101 at MIA), MINNESOTA (+144 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 73-80 for +3.65 units.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (-163 vs SD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 485-386 for +42.81 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+104 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (-101 at MIA), MINNESOTA (+144 at AZ), LA DODGERS (-207 vs BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 416-357 but for -88.49 units and an ROI of -11.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-131 vs WSH), MIAMI (-120 vs SF)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 438-387 record for +46.12 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-101 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (+135 at TEX), MINNESOTA (+144 at AZ), PITTSBURGH (-143 at COL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2105-1997 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -275.15 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-120 vs SF), PITTSBURGH (-143 at COL), KANSAS CITY (-101 vs STL), MINNESOTA (+144 at AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2135-2709 (44.1%) for -269.62 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+108 at TB), CINCINNATI (+228 at NYY), MILWAUKEE (-168 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+138 at ATH), BALTIMORE (+169 at LAD)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 382-192 (66.6%) for +53.15 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-120 vs SF)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 62-37-5 (62.6%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 32-10 OVER streak in L42).
System Match (PLAY OVER): SD-TEX (o/u at 7)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 225-259 SU but for +46.95 units (ROI: 9.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+119 vs PIT)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 303-313 run (+12.54 units, ROI: 2%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON (+102 at SEA)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 36-72 (-8.16 units, ROI: -7.6%) in their last 108 tries.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+144 at AZ)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CINCINNATI +228 (+45 diff), LA ANGELS +138 (+25)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: WSH-TB OVER 7.5 (+1.0), SF-MIA OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LAA-ATH UNDER 10 (-0.8), CWS-DET UNDER 8 (-0.5), CIN-NYY UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) MILWAUKEE (45-27) at (954) ATLANTA (46-27)
Trend: MIL is 15-6 (+10.15 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at ATL)
Trend: Over the total is 4-0 when Martin Perez starts vs Milwaukee in his career (8.54 ERA across five total appearances)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
(957) CHICAGO-AL (39-34) at (958) DETROIT (30-44)
Trend: Erick Fedde’s teams are 4-18 (-13.60 units) in his last 22 starts as a road underdog
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+168 at DET)
Trend: DET is 22-11 (+3.08 units) in Tarik Skubal’s L33 NIGHT game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-205 vs CWS)
(959) CLEVELAND (40-35) at (960) HOUSTON (35-41)
Trend: CLE is 32-17 (+13.33 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+104 at HOU)
(961) LOS ANGELES-AL (30-46) at (962) ATHLETICS (37-38)
Trend: Over the total is 14-7-1 (+6.30 units) when LAA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-ATH (o/u at 10)
Trend: ATH is 13-20 (-9.46 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-1.5 vs LAA)
(963) BOSTON (29-43) at (964) SEATTLE (39-37)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 21-11 (+10.12 units) when he starts in line range -115 to +115 in the last 4+ seasons
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 13-9 (+5.38 units) in his last 22 road night game starts against teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-104 at SEA)
Trend: SEA is 5-12 (-8.10 units) vs AL East foes with starter Bryce Miller in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-115 vs BOS)
(965) TORONTO (37-38) at (966) CHICAGO-NL (39-36)
Trend: TOR is 13-19 (-9.54 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-1.5 at CHC)
(969) WASHINGTON (39-36) at (970) TAMPA BAY (41-30)
Trend: WSH is the most profitable team in the MLB on the road this season (23-14 record, +18.24 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+108 at TB)
(971) SAN DIEGO (38-35) at (972) TEXAS (35-39)
Trend: TEX is 15-6 (+4.64 units) in the last 21 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-163 vs SD)
(973) ST LOUIS (40-33) at (974) KANSAS CITY (31-45)
Trend: Under the total is 21-9-1 (+11.10 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-KC (o/u at 9)
(975) MINNESOTA (36-40) at (976) ARIZONA (38-36)
Trend: AZ is 14-5 (+8.42 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-1.5 vs MIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TORONTO, WASHINGTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, NY YANKEES, WASHINGTON, TEXAS, KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-ATH
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, June 22)
