Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Kodai Senga, Salvador Perez and Tommy Henry on Thursday, May 11th. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on each of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 11
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, May 11th:
New York Mets (-195, 10) at Cincinnati Reds
This game has a high total and that’s a little alarming when betting on a pitcher prop, but we really like this matchup for Kodai Senga. The 30-year-old is really in a nice groove right now, as he pitched 6.0 shutout innings against the Colorado Rockies his last time out. Senga has now given up just two earned runs over his last 11.0 innings on the hill, and he is going to enjoy facing this Reds team.
Only four teams in the league have a lower wRC+ than Cincinnati against right-handed pitching this season, and the Reds come into this one after having scored three or fewer earned runs in five of their last 10 games. This is not an offense that is consistently going out and producing, so Senga should be able to limit the damage when he’s in. Senga also doesn’t work very deep in games. So, asking him to allow two or fewer earned runs over 5.0 or 6.0 innings is reasonable.
Bet: Senga Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-120)
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-115, 9.5)
Mike Clevinger is taking the mound for the White Sox on Thursday, and the righty hasn’t been great this season. Clevinger is just 2-3 with a 4.84 ERA on the year, and he has given up at least six hits in each of his last four starts and five of his last six. Clevinger has also given up at least four earned runs in two of his last three outings, and he has just been very hittable lately. With that in mind, we wanted to find somebody to play on the total bases market. And Salvador Perez is the guy that stuck out.
In his career against Clevinger, Perez has three doubles, two homers and five RBIs. The 33-year-old has really gotten some big hits against Clevinger, and he also happens to be seeing the ball well this season. Perez is batting .289 with seven homers and 21 RBIs for the Royals on the year, and he also happens to come into this one after having recorded two or more total bases in three of his last five games. So, we’re banking on the slugger to stay hot here.
Bet: Perez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
San Francisco Giants (-135, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks
It seems a little odd that Tommy Henry’s strikeout total for tonight is up at 4.5, but we’re still taking the over on it. Henry hasn’t had more than three strikeouts in any of his three starts this season, but he did have three starts in which he struck out at least five batters in 2022. And Henry now gets to face a Giants team that has a lot of trouble making contact against left-handed pitching.
Only five teams in baseball have a lower wRC+ against southpaws than San Francisco does, and the Giants also have the second-highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. So, while Henry might not have the best stuff in the world, he isn’t going to get a better opportunity than this to go out and miss some bats. And at +100 odds, this just feels like a play we have to make.
Bet: Henry Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +670 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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