MLB Player Props for Tuesday, May 21
The 2024 MLB season is in full swing and we continue to come at it from a bunch of different directions. This season, VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke will have you covered when it comes to MLB sides and totals in his daily best bets column. You’ll also get some First Five Inning analysis from Jonathan Von Tobel. On top of that, our analytics guru Steve Makinen will feed you some interesting trends and systems on a daily basis. But I’ll be focusing specifically on MLB player props this season, dishing out at least three per day every Monday to Friday. With that in mind, let’s get into the plays for Tuesday, May 21st.
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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
Clarke Schmidt is 5-1 with a 2.49 ERA for the Yankees this season, and the righty also has 55 strikeouts over 50.2 innings. Schmidt also has a rock-solid 27.0% strikeout rate on the year. With that in mind, I like him to utilize his swing-and-miss stuff to take advantage of a Mariners lineup that really struggles to make contact. Last night, Marcus Stroman struck out six in his start against this lineup, and he doesn’t have as good of stuff as Schmidt. The Mariners’ strikeout rate against right-handed pitching is all the way up at 28.9%, which is the highest mark in the time that FanGraphs allows you to track (going back to 2015). That said, this matchup doesn’t get any better for the talented 28-year-old.
Pick: Schmidt Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112 – 1.5 units)
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs – 7:40 pm ET
Michael Busch hasn’t gotten a hit in three games, but I like him to do so against the Braves tonight. This game has the highest total on the board, and Atlanta is sending Charlie Morton to the mound. Busch is 0 for 2 against Morton in his career, but that’s not enough to scare me off here. Morton has had a great season for the Braves thus far, but it’s only a matter of time before he starts to decline. And Busch is one of Chicago’s most dangerous hitters against right-handed pitching, as he’s batting .248 with eight doubles, seven homers and 19 RBIs against righties. So, in a game with an extremely high total, I just find it hard to believe Busch won’t chip in at all in a somewhat favorable matchup.
Pick: Busch Over 0.5 Total Bases (-110)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 pm ET
What Shohei Ohtani is doing to right-handed pitching this season should be illegal. The 29-year-old is batting .370 with a triple, 12 doubles, 10 homers and 24 RBIs against righties. That production at the plate has Ohtani listed second on the odds board in the NL MVP market. Well, Ohtani is going to be facing a righty tonight, as Brandon Pfaadt is taking the mound for the Diamondbacks. Pfaadt is a pretty impressive pitcher, but I really like this matchup for Ohtani. The Los Angeles superstar has just been crushing fastballs and breaking pitches this season, and Pfaadt’s four-seam fastball and sweeper make up 64% of his pitch distribution. All in all, I just think that Ohtani is going to like what he sees here, and I think he’ll do a lot of damage in this game.
Pick: Ohtani Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105)
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