Finding Value in MLB Betting on DraftKings
One of my hobbies is looking at different sportsbooks each day. I will spend 30-45 minutes going through the same game or games on multiple sites to see what markets are offered and how they are priced, and I recently did this for MLB betting.
Sunday morning, I was prepping for The Handle and doing just that over at DraftKings.com and a competitor. I liked Seattle -210 taking on the Angels, but wanted to see if there was a better way to bet the game when I stumbled onto one of the most perplexing markets that I have seen. When you click on a specific game in the DraftKings MLB menu and then click on the “Game Props” tab and scroll down about 75% of the way you will find “Will the home team bat in the bottom of the 9th inning”. It basically offers a third style of bet when looking at the Money Line and Run Line.
Top MLB Resources:
What jumped out to me was the pricing. Let’s look at that Angels vs. Mariners game:
M’s Money Line -210
M’s Run Line (-1.5) +110
Will the M’s bat in the bottom of the 9th – Yes +110 / No -130
The -130 price on the M’s will not bat in the 9th inning is a GREAT bet. The likelihood of them winning by 2 runs if they must bat in the 9th inning is slim, you would have to have a walk-off home run and the likelihood of them winning and not batting in the bottom of the 9th as a large favorite is high. For some reason, it’s priced in the opposite manner. My quick math came out to -160 to not bat in the 9th. Rarely to do find take large of an advantage on a bet. I gave that out on The Handle and broke down why on Sunday.
Since then, I’ve discussed it in the second hour of Sharp Money yesterday (Monday, June 3rd), and it was discussed again in the third hour with Steve Fezzik who agreed with my math. I have also looked closer at the market, which, to my knowledge is only offered on Draftkings, and firmly believe if you are a baseball bettor, you need to look at this in any game you are playing.
With larger favorites, at worst, this should be priced in the middle of the ML and RL. In the case of the Angels/M’s game, there was a 1.20 split between the two, so at most, there should be a 0.60 discount off the ML to the No. Let’s look at the Cubs today against the White Sox:
Cubs ML -298
Cubs RL -1.5 -148
Cubs Bat in the Bottom of the 9th – No -210
With a $1.50 split, you would expect at best $0.75 off the ML, but again, you are getting closer to $0.90 off. While -210 is still a large number to lay, it’s clearly the best of the three options.
Conversely, when looking at underdogs, there is value to be had as well! The Pirates are +160 today vs. the Dodgers (-192). The market for will the Pirates bat in the bottom of the 9th is Yes -370 / No +255. I’m never betting the Yes. I’d rather just bet the Dodgers at -192, but man, does that extra $0.95 look juicy if I like the Buccos.
If you want to be a better bettor, you should constantly be looking around books and trying to find bets like this. I’m going to keep an eye on the pricing in this MLB betting market to see if there is an adjustment, but right now, it’s a must-check bet if you are playing the home team in baseball.
