Sunday Night MLB: Giants vs. Cubs
With a night off in both the NBA and NHL Finals, MLB takes center stage for a national audience on NBC and Peacock with the Sunday Night Baseball matchup of Giants vs. Cubs. This will be the 236th career start for Jameson Taillon and the ninth for Trevor McDonald, as the veteran right-hander and his teammates are favored to win the rubber match of what has been a very interesting series.
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See player prop projections for Giants vs. Cubs from OptaAI.
How to Watch Giants vs. Cubs
Where: NBC/Peacock
When: Sunday June 7, 7:20 p.m. ET
Giants vs. Cubs MLB Odds
Chicago Cubs -125 // San Francisco Giants +103
Total: 8 (-105/-114)
Giants vs. Cubs Prediction
Pick: Cubs -125
The Giants had a major offensive explosion on Friday night to win 18-3, scoring six runs in the fourth inning and seven runs in the sixth inning to give Robbie Ray more than enough support. Incredibly, 18 runs wasn’t even a season high for San Francisco, as they scored 19 runs at Coors Field back on May 31.
But, on Saturday night, the Giants only scored two runs and lost in walk-off fashion after Pete Crow-Armstrong tied the game in the ninth with his second homer and Michael Busch’s lead-off single drove in the winning run in the 10th for a 3-2 result.
Trevor McDonald has seen Ray and Landen Roupp pitch well in this series and he’ll be looking to play “follow the leader” here. The right-hander sports a 4.50 ERA, but a 3.82 xERA and a 3.66 FIP in his 34 innings of work across six starts. McDonald is an extreme ground ball guy with a 62.2% GB%, but his 65.3% LOB% is the reason why his ERA is in the mid-4s. He’s only allowed four Barrels and has just shy of a strikeout per inning, so he’s been effective, but has fallen victim to the BABIP and sequencing gods a little bit too often in higher-leverage spots.
That said, outside of a seven-run blow-up against the White Sox back on May 22, McDonald hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his other five starts. If he can do that tonight and give his team’s offense a chance, that’s all that will be expected of him.
Taillon enters with a 5.13 ERA, 5.23 xERA, and a 6.33 FIP over his 66.2 innings of work. Unlike the extreme worm killer McDonald, Taillon has allowed 20 homers in just 12 starts and 29 Barrels for a 14.5% Barrel%. Tonight, the wind is blowing in from RF, so we’ll see if that gives him a boost, as he’s allowed at least one home run in 10 of his 12 starts. He allowed five in his May 16 start to the White Sox.
Taillon was better last time out against the A’s with 6.1 innings of two-run ball after he had allowed 16 runs over his previous three starts. He’s gotten swings and misses and a decent amount of chases this season, but only has 57 strikeouts. There are some underlying signs of improvement, but none of them will come to fruition unless he keeps the ball in the yard.
The Cubs are ninth in wOBA against RHP this season at .325 with a .236/.331/.395 slash, while the Giants are 15th with a .318 wOBA and a .260/.304/.426 slash. If we account for park factor, they are 4% above league average offensively in that split, while the Cubs are 8% better, due in large part to their 11.3% BB%. The Giants walk less often than any other team in the league against RHP at 5.5%.
If we narrow it down to the last 14 days, the Giants are actually second in baseball with a .387 wOBA and a .315/.349/.560 slash against righties. The Cubs are 13th at .341 with a .261/.342/.422 slash.
Both teams deployed their primary relievers in yesterday’s tight ballgame. Caleb Thielbar and Ryan Rolison are the only guys who might be unavailable for the Cubs, as Thielbar has worked back-to-back days and three of the last four, while Rolison has thrown 43 pitches in the last three days and pitched in three of the last four games. Longmen Carson Seymour and JT Brubaker are the only question marks for the Giants.
Giants vs. Cubs Summary
Taillon should get a boost from the wind and the cooler evening conditions on the North Side of Chicago, while McDonald will be subject to batted ball variance like he always is. The Cubs still have the stronger lineup in my eyes, despite what the Giants have done recently, and the more trustworthy bullpen.
