MLB Best Bets and Props:
It’s the final Saturday before the All-Star break, and we have a jam-packed 17-game schedule with wall-to-wall games from 1:10 p.m. to 10:10 p.m. ET, including a doubleheader between the Chicago Cubs and St.Louis Cardinals. Below are two of my MLB best bets for Saturday, July 13, but be sure to price shop for the best odds available to you at the time of viewing.
My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams.
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New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
4:05 pm ET
Grayson Rodriguez has been rock solid this season, posting a 3.52 ERA and 3.43 FIP over 94 ⅔ innings with a 26.5% strikeout rate.
However, the 24-year-old faces a difficult matchup on Saturday afternoon against the New York Yankees from a strikeout perspective.
Earlier this season, Rodriguez tossed 5 ⅔ scoreless innings against the Bronx Bombers but could only punch out three hitters. In addition, the right-hander struck out only four batters in 6 ⅓ frames against the Yankees last year.
If we look at New York’s recent form, they are batting just .226 against righties over the last 30 days with a .308 on-base percentage. But, they carried a mere 11.1% swinging strike rate during that stretch with an American League-best 24.8% chase rate.
If you reduce that sample to just the previous two weeks, New York boasts the third-lowest K% in baseball (18.5%) and the 10th-highest wRC+ (113).
This is a great spot to invest in Grayson’s Under 6.5 K prop at plus-money, and I would be happy to take this all the way to -130
MLB Best Bet: Grayson Rodriguez Under 6.5 K (+115)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
7:15 pm ET
The next prop is a projection play based on how far apart I see this line versus the sportsbooks.
Reynaldo Lopez is currently listed at Over/Under 17.5 Outs versus the San Diego Padres. However, I have him projected to go just shy of 15.
Why?
Well, Lopez has been on a consistently short leash all season. In fact, the former reliever has gone over 90 pitches just five times over 16 outings.
Secondly, the veteran right-hander was selected to pitch in the All-Star game next week, which will more than likely play into the Braves’ strategy when it comes to workload. In addition, Atlanta’s bullpen is well-rested, having used only four relievers over the past two games.
I fully expect Lopez to have an abbreviated outing against a Padres team that boasts a 126 wRC+ at home over the past 30 games versus right-handed pitching.
Take the Under on Reynaldo’s 17.5 Outs prop on Saturday. I would play this line at Under 16.5 as well.
MLB Best Bet: Reynaldo Lopez Under 17.5 Outs (-115)
