MLB Best Bets and Props:
Another glorious day of baseball awaits us on Saturday with wall-to-wall games from 1:05 p.m. to 9:40 p.m. ET, giving us plenty of options for MLB best bets and props.
Below are two of my MLB best bets for Saturday, July 6, but be sure to price shop for the best odds available to you at the time of viewing.
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My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
7:15 pm ET
Spencer Schwellenbach has been inconsistent from a conventional production standpoint, but the 24-year-old has been racking up plenty of strikeouts lately. Over his previous three outings, the right-hander has collected 20 punchouts over 16 innings against the Tigers, Cardinals, and Pirates.
Granted, those opponents were certainly on the weaker side of the spectrum from a matchup standpoint. However, Schwellenbach’s strikeout line is listed at just 4.5 on Saturday against the Phillies.
Philadelphia carries a 23.4% K rate versus right-handers over the last 30 days, with a 13.4% swinging strike rate and a 31.6% chase rate.
This line feels like it should either be heavily juiced at 4.5, or set at 5.5 altogether.
MLB Best Bet: Spencer Schwellenbach Over 4.5 K (-109)
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
4:05 pm ET
David Peterson has a walk problem.
The Mets southpaw has issued 13 free passes over his last five outings. However, even with those issues, Peterson has cleared at least 18 outs in three of those five starts.
This is great news considering he only needs to clear 15.5 Outs on Saturday against a Pirates lineup carrying a mere .211 average against left-handers over the last 30 days, with a .550 OPS and a 3.7% walk rate. You read that correctly—a 3.7% walk rate.
This should allow Peterson to manage a reasonable pitch count during the game and set him up nicely to surpass his Outs total.
The Mets are desperate to avoid dipping into their depleted bullpen, and the 28-year-old has eclipsed the 100-pitch mark in two of his last three assignments.
MLB Best Bet: David Peterson Over 15.5 Outs (-125)
