MLB Best Bets Today May 12
A standard-issue Tuesday on the diamond means all 30 teams are on the schedule and every game will conclude under the lights, as the first first pitch of the night is slated for 6:10 p.m. ET in Cleveland. The last first pitch of the night is set for 10:10 p.m. ET in Chavez Ravine. That means a lot of time to handicap the card and consider the matchups.
Thirteen pitchers are making their ninth starts of the season and five more are making their eighth starts, while seven more are making their seventh or sixth starts of the season. Sample sizes are indeed becoming a lot more meaningful and reliable, so there should be a lot of valuable information we can pull from today’s hurlers.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 11:
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (-122, 9)
7:15 p.m. ET
A couple of veteran right-handers open up this series at Truist Park between the Cubs and Braves. Colin Rea gets the nod for Chicago and Grant Holmes will shake off some rust to take the hill for the Braves. Holmes has a 4.34 ERA with a 4.26 xERA and a 5.02 FIP in his 37.1 innings of work. He’s walked 17 and only struck out 29 and manager Walt Weiss said that Holmes was being skipped last time out to be available as a bullpen option. Well, he hasn’t pitched out of the pen and now hasn’t pitched since May 1.
Holmes allowed six runs on seven hits over five innings in that outing, as he struck out four for the third start in a row and walked three for the fourth time in seven starts. He’s been helped out tremendously by a .241 BABIP against that has helped to limit damage, but he’s allowed four homers in his last three starts and we already know that he is a guy pitching hurt. Holmes was reported to have UCL damage last season and wound up getting shut down in late July. Usually UCL damage requires surgery for a fix, but Holmes opted not to go that route.
Holmes has a 20-point gap between his wOBA and xwOBA on the bad side and this probably isn’t the best matchup for him. The Cubs are third in BB% at 11.6% against RHP this season and Holmes is heavily reliant on chases to be effective because of his subpar control. His 10.6% BB% ranks in the 31st percentile and his 18.1% K% ranks in the 25th percentile. So, it’s all about trying to induce weak contact outside of the zone. If the Cubs stay disciplined, they should have success here.
It should also be noted that Holmes had one of the worst fastballs in the league last season, as opposing batters hit .327 with a .645 SLG. The pitch was -14 pitching runs. This season, hitters are batting .218 with a .382 SLG, but have a .276 xBA and a .494 xSLG. The Cubs may be able to leverage that to their advantage as well, especially if they can get into favorable counts.
As far as Rea goes, he seems to have reinvented himself as a pitcher in his second season with the Cubs. He has a 4.03 ERA with a 4.49 xERA and a 3.67 FIP, as his GB% is up to 52.1%, which is easily a career-best. Rea is leveraging his splitter more frequently and actually has one of the lowest PullAir% in the league, which is an important attribute against a lineup like Atlanta’s with their power potential.
Rea’s K% is also up relative to the last two seasons and he’s getting a lot more chases down out of the zone with the splitter and more horizontal movement on his cutter and sweeper. His sweeper has been an extremely effective pitch to same-side hitters, while the splitter has been his go-to against lefties.
The Cubs bullpen seems to have navigated some very choppy injury waters now that closer Daniel Palencia is back and the rest of the group has fallen into place a bit. Atlanta’s bullpen is very good as well, but I’m expecting Rea to be better than Holmes and the Cubs lineup to have more success in what I view as a more advantageous matchup.
Pick: Cubs +102
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-131, 8.5)
7:40 p.m. ET
The Padres and Brewers fire up a weekday set at AmFam Field, as San Diego opens the series with an opener. Bradgley Rodriguez will start and Matt Waldron will follow, while the Brewers go a more traditional route with Brandon Sproat.
Rodriguez fired a 1-2-3 inning ahead of Waldron last week against the Giants, as he got the start and then gave way to the knuckleball right-hander. Rodriguez has allowed four runs on 15 hits in 19.2 innings of work with a 14/5 K/BB ratio and a 55.2% GB%.
Waldron, whose season got off to a late start because of hemorrhoid surgery, allowed 12 runs on 16 hits in his first two starts, including one in Colorado. He’s allowed four runs on eight hits in his last 10 innings and allowed one run on just two hits with a 7/0 K/BB ratio against the Giants last time out. Obviously the Brewers represent a bigger challenge than the Giants, especially as they’ve gotten healthier, but Waldron does throw a knuckleball about 30% of the time and that’s a very unique weapon.
Waldron has a 7.71 ERA, but a 3.53 xERA. He has a 5.42 FIP because he’s allowed four homers with a below average K%, but his 59.1% LOB% is ripe for positive regression and he’s only allowed a 37.5% Hard Hit% with a 6.3% Barrel%.
On the flip side, Sproat has been hit hard for the most part. He allowed 11 runs in his first 6.2 innings, so his ERA is still looking to bounce back from that. He has a 5.87 ERA with a 5.05 xERA and a 5.99 FIP in 30.2 innings of work. If we knock out those first two starts, he has a 3.38 ERA with a 4.07 xERA and a 4.33 FIP, but he still has 11 walks in those 24 innings and is generating very little chase outside the zone. Could be something or could be nothing, but Sproat actually had more velocity in his last start, but less spin.
By the fourth inning, Sproat had lost two mph off of his fastball and sinker and was pulled after just 76 pitches against the Cardinals. Seems like a bit of a red flag to me.
Both bullpens are very good, so that’s not really a net positive either way. I just think something may be up with Sproat and feel like there’s a good price on the Padres here.
Pick: Padres +109
Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins (-112, 9)
7:40 p.m. ET
We’ve had a pretty significant line move in this game towards the Marlins, as Eury Perez and Bailey Ober are listed as the starters. Both starters are in pretty precarious spots here with a decent breeze blowing out to RF around 15-20 mph, so it’s not an ideal day to be a fly ball pitcher. Unfortunately for these two guys, that’s precisely what both of them are.
Let’s start with Perez, since the betting market seems to prefer him and his team here. He’s got a 5.01 ERA with a 4.94 xERA and a 4.88 FIP over 41.1 innings of work. He’s struck out over a batter per inning, but has also walked 11.5% of opposing hitters. He’s given up 27 runs on 38 hits in his eight starts and that includes seven homers with a 13.3% Barrel%.
Perez has enjoyed loanDepot Park, which is a pretty decent pitcher venue, especially with fly ball guys. The road, however, has been unkind. He’s got a 2.78 ERA in 116.2 innings at home with a .189/.265/.336 slash and a .267 wOBA. He has a 5.17 ERA with a .233/.310/.474 slash and a .336 wOBA on the road in 111.1 innings. He’s faced five more batters on the road in his career and allowed 12 more home runs. He’s pitched 5.1 fewer innings on the road and allowed 23 more runs.
This season, we’re already seeing those trends, as he’s allowed a .308/.422/.596 slash with a .438 wOBA against on the road in just 64 plate appearances. He’s allowed a .210/.297/.400 slash with a .312 wOBA in 118 PA at home.
Ober has a 4.19 ERA with a 3.83 xERA and a 4.33 FIP over his 43 innings of work. He’s only struck out 32 and has issued 15 walks, so he’s a pitch-to-contact guy and kind of dependent on some BABIP luck. That said, he’s gotten it with a .246 BABIP against due in large part to a 31.3% Hard Hit% and a 7.6% Barrel%. He has already induced 16 pop ups, which are effectively strikeouts. Ober’s 27.6% IFFB% is the highest in the league by 8% over Chase Burns among qualified starters.
So, Ober definitely has a better chance at getting harmless fly ball outs on what should be a good day for elevating the baseball. Also, the Twins are seventh in fly ball rate against righties, while the Marlins are 25th. Minnesota is 10th in HR/FB% against RHP, while Miami is 22nd. The Marlins have done better recently in HR/FB% against RHP, but are also fourth in pop up rate in that split.
The Marlins definitely have the bullpen advantage here by the full-season numbers, but the Miami bullpen has a 5.26 ERA on the road thus far, so they’ve had their issues there. Most of their pitchers end up with some home/road splits with how good of a venue loanDepot Park is. I’ll take the full-game shot here with a slightly better price than the 1st 5.
Pick: Twins -112
