Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, June 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX Letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Detroit: 10-24 record (29.4%) for -14.08 units, ROI: -41.4%
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 427-375 record for +48.21 units and an ROI of 6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+129 at MIL), TEXAS (-125 at STL), NY METS (+110 at SEA), LA DODGERS (-168 at AZ)
Trend: DET is 8-24 (-18.96 units) in road games this season
Trend: TB is 21-6 (+13.77 units) in home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-163 vs DET)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 104-80 start for -1.21 units and an ROI of -0.7%.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-125 at STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 15-13 for -0.70 units and an ROI of -2.5%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-163 vs CWS), CINCINNATI (-199 vs KC), LA ANGELS (-205 vs COL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 36-51 for -18.71 units and an ROI of -21.5%!
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-156 vs SF)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 69-83 for +7.73 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+168 at LAA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 30-11 for +4.18 units and an ROI of +10.2%.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-205 vs COL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 68-78 start for -2.69 units (ROI -1.8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 34-43 for -7.22 units and an ROI -9.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (-144 vs MIA)
3+ games – SEATTLE (-132 vs NYM)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 60-72 for -4.99 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-163 vs CWS), ARIZONA (+139 vs LAD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 477-380 for +41.74 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at MIN), TEXAS (-125 at STL), NY METS (+110 at SEA), SEATTLE (-132 vs NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 143-186 for -40.07 units and an ROI of -12.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+104 vs TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 404-345 but for -83.88 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-163 vs CWS), MILWAUKEE (-156 vs SF)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 427-375 record for +48.21 units and an ROI of 6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+129 at MIL), TEXAS (-125 at STL), NY METS (+110 at SEA), LA DODGERS (-168 at AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2077-1964 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -262.55 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+129 at MIL), NY METS (+110 at SEA), LA DODGERS (-168 at AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2102-2678 (44%) for -273.62 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+134 at TB), MIAMI (+119 at WSH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at MIN)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 636-525 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.75 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+104 vs TEX)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allowing >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 188-225 SU record for +36.36 units and an ROI of 8.8% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+168 at LAA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 299-311 run (+10.47 units, ROI: 1.7%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (+134 at TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 187-154 (+11.38 units, ROI: 3.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-132 vs NYM)
Winning Streak Betting System #8:
Teams on 5+ game winning streaks but playing as large underdogs (+137 or more) have had their totals go Over at a 59-41-5 (59%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHICAGO WHITE SOX at MIN (+135 CURRENTLY, O/U 8)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: MILWAUKEE -156 (+16 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIA-WSH OVER 8 (+0.8), CWS-MIN OVER 8 (+0.5), SF-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.5), COL-LAA OVER 8 (+0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) MIAMI (26-34) at (952) WASHINGTON (31-29)
Trend: MIA has an 11-6 record versus Washington with starter Sandy Alcantara in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+119 at WSH)
Trend: Over the total is 19-4-3 (+14.60 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-WSH (o/u at 8)
(953) SAN FRANCISCO (23-36) at (954) MILWAUKEE (35-21)
Trend: Under the total is 19-9-2 (+9.10 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
(955) LOS ANGELES-NL (38-21) at (956) ARIZONA (31-27)
Trend: LAD is 10-3 (+8.05 units) on the run line when facing LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at AZ)
(957) DETROIT (22-38) at (958) TAMPA BAY (36-20)
Trend: DET is 8-24 (-18.96 units) in road games this season
Trend: TB is 21-6 (+13.77 units) in home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-163 vs DET)
(961) KANSAS CITY (22-37) at (962) CINCINNATI (30-28)
Trend: KC is 6-16 (-9.28 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+163 at CIN)
(963) TEXAS (28-31) at (964) ST LOUIS (31-26)
Trend: TEX is 6-13 (-8.60 units) in the last 19 night games as a -130 favorite or less (including underdog) with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-125 at STL)
(965) COLORADO (22-38) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (23-37)
Trend: COL is 12-35 (-14.52 units) on the road over the last few seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+168 at LAA)
Trend: Under the total is 5-0 when Colorado faces LAA with starter Kyle Freeland in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-LAA (o/u at 8)
Trend: LAA is 1-10 (-12.98 units) with starter Jose Soriano in home games against non-divisional opponents with a losing record since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-205 vs COL)
(967) NEW YORK-NL (26-33) at (968) SEATTLE (31-29)
Trend: SEA is 11-21 (-8.57 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs NYM)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, TEXAS, LA ANGELS, SEATTLE
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Letdown after series vs. DETROIT: 10-24 (29.4%) -14.08 units, ROI: -41.4%
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+135 at MIN)
MIAMI
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 12-22 (35.3%) -8.43 units, ROI: -24.8%
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+119 at WSH)
