MLB Best Bets Today October 20
There’s nothing like a Game 7 in sports and we’ve got a good one tonight between the Mariners and Blue Jays in a series that has featured a lot of twists and turns. After the road team won the first four games, the home team has won the last two games, setting up a winner-take-all affair at Rogers Centre tonight at 8:08 p.m. ET.
It is kind of amazing how this has been such a compelling series, even though five of the six games have been decided by four or more runs. Are we finally in for another tight one tonight? It sure would ramp up the intensity of the moment if we are.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 20:
Mariners vs. Blue Jays (-133, 7.5)
8:08 p.m. ET (FOX/FS1)
The Blue Jays made a smattering of moves at the Trade Deadline and Shane Bieber was one of them, so it makes sense that he gets the start in the deciding game of the series. After a rough first inning in Game 3, Bieber settled in with five scoreless innings and wound up with two runs allowed on four hits with eight strikeouts against one walk. It was a much better outing than what he had against the Yankees in the last round, but he was pitching on a week and half worth of rest, so he probably got a little bit rusty. He’s on the traditional four days rest here.
My concerns with Bieber are well-documented. He had a 3.57 ERA with a 4.58 xERA and a 4.47 FIP in 40.1 innings this season after returning from Tommy John surgery. He allowed a 48.2% Hard Hit% and a 12.3% Barrel%. He’s always allowed a good bit of hard contact with a 43.1% Hard Hit%, a byproduct of throwing a lot of strikes, but also because his fastball is not a very useful pitch. It wasn’t a surprise to see him throw just 23% four-seam fastballs in his last start and he actually located it really well with four Whiffs in eight swings.
But, it was the slider that was really sharp for him, as 13 of the 26 he threw were either called strikes or swings and misses, with seven Whiffs on 12 swings. It was a pretty vintage Bieber start. He attacked righties almost exclusively with the slider, as 23 of 26 were to RHB, which is what I was talking about in terms of only really working one side of the plate to same-side hitters.
He attacked lefties with a mix of fastballs, changeups, and curveballs. He gave up a rocket double to Jorge Polanco, but the other three hard-hit balls besides the J-Rod homer were all grounders. He was able to induce some weak contact from the other lefties and gave up a couple singles that were 78.3 and 59.5 mph. He’ll have to locate like that again tonight to avoid the loud contact.
There’s also a chance he gets some good run support. George Kirby gave up three homers in his Game 3 start and eight runs in total over just four innings of work. He allowed seven hard-hit balls and many were quite penal. Kirby got zero Whiffs on 11 swings against his sinker and that was his most popular pitch at 39%. His slider was next at 38% and he did get four Whiffs on 11 swings.
Kirby’s home/road splits were pretty stark this season, as he was +52, +47, +86, and +52 by BA/OBP/SLG/wOBA. His ERA was nearly two runs higher on the road. For his career, his ERA is about a run higher on the road, which is hardly surprising as a strike-thrower with a really favorable home ballpark.
A few questions that I have tonight…
Who will John Schneider go to in the late innings? It’s clear that he only trusts two relievers right now in Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland. Hoffman threw 35 pitches yesterday and Varland threw 22 for his third day of work in four days. If Bieber gets into trouble in the middle innings, I have no idea who Schneider will go to.
How fast will Dan Wilson hit the eject button on Kirby? Kirby had two solid five-inning efforts against the Tigers in the ALDS, but both starts did come at home. So did his start against Toronto, where he got shelled. The Blue Jays are obviously a far better lineup than the Tigers. Will Luis Castillo be an option? Bryan Woo threw 28 pitches on Friday, so he could be used. I feel like his list of trusted relievers is a little bit tight as well.
If nothing else, we know Kirby won’t turn the lineup over a third time, so the first man out of the pen will tell us a lot here.
The Mariners have struck out 62 times in this series compared to just 34 for the Blue Jays. It has had an impact, as Toronto is batting .263 and Seattle is batting .218. It stands to reason that Bieber will have more strikeouts than Kirby. This one may simply come down to the home runs allowed and whether or not people are on base.
I like Bieber Over 12.5 Outs at +120. I mentioned above that Schneider has some limitations with the bullpen and it’s not like Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage are guys he can use tonight. I guess Gausman maybe, but he’s probably well down the priority list to use. Yesavage is obviously not available. I think he’ll push the veteran Bieber.
As far as the moneyline or total, no strong opinion from me. I lean Blue Jays, but prefer -130 for the 1st 5 as opposed to the full game. Toronto’s short list of trusted relievers is a concern to me, especially this deep into a series when there are no more secrets.
Pick: Blue Jays 1st 5 (-130); Shane Bieber (TOR) Over 12.5 Outs Recorded (+120)
