MLB Best Bets Today October 9

One LCS ticket has been punched, as the Blue Jays knocked off the Yankees in the Bronx to make the ALCS for the first time since 2016. The Mariners and Tigers will play on Friday for that opportunity, as Seattle hasn’t seen the ALCS since 2001 and the Tigers since 2013.

So we’ve got some new blood on the AL side. What will we get on the NL side? The Phillies and Dodgers play another elimination game tonight in Chavez Ravine, as Philly extended the series last night. The Cubs and Brewers will do the same, as Chicago also forced at least another day in their postseason run. If Game 5s are required, they will be on Saturday. If not, series previews will go up on Friday.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for October 9:

Phillies at Dodgers (-132, 8)

6:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)

After a strong effort in Game 1, Cristopher Sanchez will try to pitch his team to a return flight to Philadelphia for a game, instead of a somber goodbye. The Dodgers will turn to Tyler Glasnow in hopes of avoiding that five-hour flight.

Sanchez worked 5.2 innings in Game 1 with eight strikeouts against two walks with a couple runs allowed on four hits. He had a stellar regular season with a 2.50 ERA, 3.01 xERA, and a 2.55 FIP over 202 innings. He actually got better as the season went along, too, as the first month was his worst from a BA, OBP, SLG, and wOBA standpoint. He only walked 12 batters in 87 innings in the second half with a .222/.248/.324 slash and a .250 wOBA.

Because of the NLDS schedule, Sanchez is on the standard-issue four days rest, though a lot of guys are pitching on five days rest these days. Sanchez had the good stuff working in Game 1 with 18 Whiffs and a 42% Whiff percentage over 94 pitches and 43 swings. He gave up five hard-hit balls, but mostly limited the damage before David Robertson and Matt Strahm spilled gasoline all over the mound and lit it on fire.

Sanchez was actually more effective on four days rest than five days rest. He posted a 2.36 ERA in 14 starts over 84 innings of work. He did have a better K/BB ratio on five days rest or 6+ days rest, but he only allowed three homers in those 14 starts.

Glasnow has pitched 1.2 innings since his final regular season appearance on September 27, where he only faced 13 batters. So dating back to September 20, Glasnow has faced 21 batters. I’m not entirely surprised that he allowed two hits and two walks out of the eight batters he faced in his lone postseason appearance, which came in Game 1. This is a really big ask for him to be sharp, plus there are some questions about how far he can go, having thrown just 70 pitches over the last 19 days.

Rather than burn another reliever, manager Dave Roberts opted to let Clayton Kershaw wear one, as the Phillies put the game out of reach in the eighth. Tanner Scott was apparently unavailable due to a personal matter. Emmet Sheehan has not thrown the ball well in the postseason. This feels like a pretty tough spot for the Dodgers. Roberts will have to piecemeal this thing together, as Glasnow may only turn the lineup over once.

Meanwhile, winning by margin with a good “start” from Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez helped the Phillies keep all of their primary relievers rested. Even Taijuan Walker got to pitch last night.

The Dodgers may very well win, but I’ll take a starting position on the Phillies here at +108. Sanchez is a ground ball merchant who got a lot of swings and misses in Game 1 and Glasnow, and whoever follows, is a massive unknown. I also think Glasnow’s Outs Recorded prop at 14.5 might be a little bit high. The Under at +126 is a possibility there.

But I’m also going to go with Glasnow Over 1.5 Walks Allowed at -128. I mentioned how he hasn’t pitched much lately. He walked 43 in 90.1 innings during the regular season for an 11.7% BB%, his worst mark there since 2018. He also had the two walks in Game 1.

Picks: Phillies +108; Tyler Glasnow (LAD) Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-128)

Brewers (-118, 7) at Cubs

9:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)

As of this morning, neither team had publicly announced a Game 4 starter. Freddy Peralta, like Sanchez, would be on the old norm of four days rest. He was good on four days rest over 12 starts with a 2.59 ERA. His K/BB ratio was quite a bit lower at 63/26 compared to 17 starts on five days rest at 116/34. Oddly, he gave up 15 homers in those 17 starts while only allowing four homers in his 12 starts on four days.

The sample size is hard to tell, but it is worth noting that he had a 1.293 WHIP on four days rest compared to 0.982 on five days rest. The other options are an opener followed by Robert Gasser, a start from Gasser, or a Johnny Wholestaff bullpen game. Gasser only worked 5.2 MLB innings with a 3.18 ERA, 5.11 xERA, and a 6.84 FIP over two starts this season. He threw 28 better innings in 2024. Maybe Jose Quintana would have been an option, but he pitched three innings to spare the bullpen yesterday.

Ultimately, I think they’ll roll with Peralta. With a chance to close out the series, you don’t want to throw probably the worst arm you’re carrying on the roster. You can figure out Game 5 if need be. You should have Chad Patrick and Jacob Misiorowski to do some heavy lifting.

The Cubs are expected to go with Matthew Boyd, who got blasted in the first inning of Game 1 and didn’t get out of it. A lot has been made of Boyd going on short rest in that outing, which he will not be here, but he didn’t have a full workload in the Wild Card Game. I really don’t think that was it. He just didn’t locate and got zero favors from the defense, as only two of the six runs were earned.

Pretty good pitching weather again for the night game. I have other content and obligations today, so I’m not going to revisit this game once we know the starters for sure. I probably won’t have a play on it regardless, as there are obviously a lot of moving parts.