MLB Best Bets Today April 25:
One day game and 14 night games welcome us into the weekend, as all 30 MLB teams are scheduled to take the field this evening. Rainouts look very possible in Detroit and Cleveland, so we’ll see if Orioles vs. Tigers and Red Sox vs. Guardians can be played. The day starts in the Midwest with Phillies vs. Cubs on a chilly day in Wrigleyville, as evidenced by the total of 8 with Taijuan Walker and Colin Rea on the bump.
For a random quirk on today’s schedule, the only left-handed starters listed are all in NL games. There are no southpaws slated to go in the AL or interleague games.
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This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 25:
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (-135, 9)
7:05 p.m. ET
After a seven-game road trip, the Yankees are back in the friendly confines to take on the Blue Jays. They’ll see a familiar face in Jose Berrios and counter with veteran Carlos Carrasco. I’m looking at the Yankees offense in this one, even though both offenses could certainly have success based on the pitching matchup this evening.
Berrios comes in with a 5.02 ERA, 4.70 xERA, and a 5.43 FIP over his 28.2 innings of work. He’s had problems with both his command and control this season, as he’s surrendered six homers and issued 13 walks in his five starts. He has 24 strikeouts for a 19.8% K%. The Yankees have struck out a lot against right-handed starters this season, but I don’t know that the quality of Berrios’ stuff is up to snuff right now.
He has allowed 11 Barrels (13.1%) over 84 batted ball events. He’s allowed seven of them over his last three starts and has allowed 17 hard-hit balls in his last two outings against the Mariners and Orioles, including five Barrels. The Yankees lead MLB in Hard Hit% and also Barrel% at 46.9% and 12.7%, respectively. They are also fifth in BB% and the Mariners, who lead the league, just drew four walks against Berrios at home.
That start for Berrios was his third in five outings with a single-digit SwStr%. In fact, it was his second start with a SwStr% under 5%. He has allowed a 92.6% Z-Contact%, so he hasn’t generated many Whiffs in the zone. He’s never shined in that area, but he’s having his worst season thus far and his Chase Rate is the lowest he’s had since 2018. I just don’t see the quality of the stuff being there.
Berrios is also on track to allow the highest Pulled Air% of his career since 2016. He’s over 20% for the first time since then and that is not a great thing at Yankee Stadium with the dimensions down the lines. He also had some notable home/road splits last season, where his SLG allowed was 131 points higher and his wOBA against was 64 points higher. We don’t have enough data for 2025 yet, but it is something to watch.
Because Berrios typically works deeper into games and may leave a reliever with a mess to clean up, instead of the 1st 5 Over 2.5, I’m looking at the full-game Over 4.5. Historically, like most pitchers, Berrios struggles most the third time through the order, where he’s given up 59 HR out of 1,540 batters compared to 61 HR to 2,194 batters the second time through.
Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-115)
Boston Red Sox (-110, 9) at Cleveland Guardians
7:10 p.m. ET
I think this game is a rainout, so I’m not going to write about it in deep detail, but I did want to mention something to follow about Ben Lively and maybe something I’ll look to play if his start is pushed to Saturday. Lively has thrown 10.1 shutout innings against the Pirates and White Sox. He’s allowed 11 runs in 15.1 innings against the Royals twice and Padres. Even the Pirates and White Sox had Hard Hit% of 52.9% and 60% in those outings, so he’s definitely a guy I’m looking to fade.
Houston Astros (-118, 8) at Kansas City Royals
7:40 p.m. ET
Hayden Wesneski makes his 73rd career appearance today and Seth Lugo makes his 340th as the Astros kick off a quick three-game road trip to the Land of BBQ. Both teams are riding a bit of a heater right now, as the Astros have won three in a row and five of six, while Kansas City has won four in a row, although it was the Rockies that they just swept at Kauffman Stadium.
I’ve been following Wesneski pretty closely, as I’m always intrigued when a smart team acquires a pitcher. So far, the Astros have had some pretty good returns with him, as he has a 3.91 ERA with a 4.11 xERA and a 4.89 FIP in his 23 innings. Wesneski has elevated his K% to 27.8% and cut his BB% down to 4.4%, but he’s allowed six home runs. He’s given up some hard contact with a 50% Hard Hit% and eight Barrels. That’s been a bugaboo for Wesneski throughout his career, but his 2.99 xFIP shows what could be possible if he gets rid of the home run issue.
He should have a chance at that tonight. The Royals have only hit 12 home runs so far this season. That ranks 30th in MLB and their .320 SLG ranks 29th, better than only the hapless White Sox. While the Royals do rank 15th in Hard Hit%, they are 27th in Barrel%. This should be an opportunity for Wesneski to work around his home run issue.
Lugo is a guy that I pegged as a regression candidate coming into the season. He’s thrown 353 innings over the last two seasons while making 59 starts and I just don’t love that type of workload for a guy in his mid-30s who has primarily been a reliever. And I think we’re seeing some of the things I was worried about. Lugo is fortunate right now to be carrying an 81.1% LOB%, as it’s kept his ERA under 4.00. He has a 3.90 ERA with a 4.46 xERA and a 5.42 FIP.
Lugo’s K% is down 4.3% from last season and his BB% is up nearly 4%. His Hard Hit% against is 46.6%, which would be the highest of his career. His spin rates are down pretty much across the board, though not by a lot. Still, I think Lugo is a guy battling through something right now. He has a 76% F-Strike%, but still only has a 7.9% SwStr%, so he’s working ahead, but still not finding a ton of success.
Over the last 14 days, the Astros are eighth in wRC+ at 116. The Royals are 28th at 73. I’m not going to let a series against the Rockies skew my thoughts on this KC team.
The Astros had yesterday off in anticipation of this game, while the Royals had to use six relievers, including two – Carlos Estevez and Daniel Lynch – for the fourth time in six days during the doubleheader. I’ll back Houston in this one.
Pick: Astros -118
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins (-205, 8)
7:40 p.m. ET
I normally don’t play run lines with home teams. They only get to bat eight times if they are ahead and that can limit their offensive upside a little bit. In this game, though, I have enough compelling reasons to do it.
Let’s start with the travel. Sam Blum of The Athletic ($) wrote a terrific piece about the displeasure of the Angels players for having to play a night game last night before the 3:20 flight to Minneapolis. The Angels left LAX, which they don’t normally do, as they often fly out of SNA or LGB, so they left California at 11:17 p.m. PT. They arrived in Minneapolis at 4:37 a.m. CT.
The Halos won 4-3, so Blum asked Ron Washington about whether or not it makes the flight better.
This was not a happy team heading to MSP and I can’t help but feel like the goal was to win last night knowing that today was something of a throwaway.
Also, Kyle Hendricks is on the mound and he has allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in 20 innings with just 10 strikeouts against seven walks. Hendricks has allowed eight runs over his last nine innings and has only struck out two of the 38 batters that he has faced. And the Angels lineup draws a returning Pablo Lopez, who looked excellent in his Triple-A rehab start.
Rocco Baldelli will likely only shoot for five innings at most from Lopez, something to keep in mind for his props, but he has a pretty rested bullpen following yesterday’s off day. Over the last 14 days, the Angels rank 29th in wRC+ at 56 and have a 32.1% K%.
So, we should have a lot more balls in play from the Twins with Hendricks’ lack of strikeouts and Lopez’s ability to generate Whiffs against a lineup already striking out a ton with low-quality at bats.
I know the Twins only get to bat eight times, but I can’t see the Angels scoring much in this game, if at all, with the fatigue and the anger about the situation.
Pick: Twins Run Line -1.5 (+110)
Cincinnati Reds (-120, 9.5) at Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
While the Rockies were getting swept in a doubleheader in Kansas City, the Reds were just chilling in Denver. This is the third city on a nine-game road trip for the Reds, but they’ve already been outside the Eastern Time Zone with trips to Milwaukee and San Francisco, so I think they’re ready to hit the ground running here, especially after dropping a series to the Marlins.
Andrew Abbott and Kyle Freeland are the listed hurlers tonight. Freeland left his last start after two innings with a blister on his left index finger. He had blister issues twice last season and has twice been put on the IL in his career for them, so it’s a normal thing, but I can’t help but wonder if it will have a notable impact on his newfound sweeper, a pitch that he has dropped the usage of in his last two starters while focusing on more sinkers and curveballs.
His sweeper is his best swing-and-miss pitch and I wonder if the beginnings of the blister two starts ago played a role in the pitch’s decreased usage and then he barely threw it last time out. His sinker and fastball are both awful pitches with limited swing-and-miss upside and his curveball, while a very valuable pitch, could be more difficult to control in the thin air.
Abbott is making his third start of the season after getting off to a bit of a slow start due to injury. He’s allowed two runs on four hits with 16 strikeouts over 11 innings against just three walks. Abbott is a fly ball guy, which is something to worry about at Coors, but it won’t be a great night for hitting with damp conditions and winds blowing in. That could actually hurt Freeland even more with grip on a wet night.
Also, let’s be honest. The Rockies are 5-20. To be fair, they’ve played 15 games on the road, where they are 1-14, but still. This is a horrible baseball team. The Reds, even if we take out their 24-2 win, have a positive run differential. I can’t let them go by at this cheap of a price, especially with lingering worries about Freeland.
Pick: Reds -120
