MLB Best Bets Today August 16:
The full slate for the weekend features a whole lot of interleague action. There are seven interleague series and four series in each of the two leagues. It is also a big weekend for moneyline parlay players. We have a lot of big favorites among the AL and NL games, so those could be interesting spots for ML parlays. The interleague games have much more balanced odds, although we only have six of them, as two teams get a rare Friday off day.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 16:
Arizona Diamondbacks (-112, 8) at Tampa Bay Rays
6:50 p.m. ET
Ryan Pepiot makes his return to the Rays rotation on Friday night after a spider bite that resulted in a month on the IL. He made one rehab start in Double-A six days ago and struck out seven of the 13 batters he faced over 69 pitches, but he gets a much stiffer test here today.
The Diamondbacks will roll with Ryne Nelson, who has been way more effective than I thought he’d be this season. But, this handicap is about the Arizona offense.
You remember the Attack Zone chart?
Well, the Diamondbacks lead MLB in Batting Run Value against four-seam fastballs, of which Pepiot throws about 51% of the time. But, a lot of those are up in the zone, where the Diamondbacks are second in SLG at .439 and first in wOBA at .347. I selected those Attack Zones 1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 13, 21, 22, and 23 for my sample size and the Diamondbacks shine up there in that area.
It is interesting that Pepiot’s Earned Runs Allowed is Over 1.5 at -150, but the Diamondbacks 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 is -140. I think we’re getting a little value on that number, especially since Pepiot will probably only throw 75-80 pitches.
I’ve also seen a lot of people behind Pepiot Under 5.5 Strikeouts. It’s -150 at DraftKings. Shop around and try to find a better price, but that one makes sense as well, as he’s on a pitch count and the Snakes don’t strike out much.
Pick: Diamondbacks 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-140)
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers (-122, 8.5)
8:05 p.m. ET
The Twins ultimately prevailed 3-2 last night in a battle of the bullpens, pushing the 1st 5, but winning the full game. Things could have gone differently, as they had four Barrels in the first two innings against Cody Bradford, but stranded a rocket double from Royce Lewis and just missed out on a big fly from Carlos Santana on a ball with an xBA of .880 that landed in an outfielder’s glove.
But, the Twins are facing their third straight lefty tonight in Andrew Heaney, so the platoon guys and part-timers have gotten a good bit of reps lately and will take their chances against another southpaw tonight. The Rangers will take their swings against Sheldon Woods Richardson.
Both pitchers have pretty similar stat lines. SWR has been a little better with a 3.78 ERA, 3.84 xERA, and a 3.79 FIP in his 102.1 innings of work. Heaney has a 4.05 ERA with a 4.15 xERA and a 3.99 FIP.
Just generally speaking, the Twins are playing better and have been the better team throughout the year. Texas is down to 10-16 in the second half and repeating as World Series champs won’t be happening, so a team that played a ton of baseball last season may be facing the fallout of that. This month, the Rangers are just 4-9 and have given up 79 runs in those 13 games.
The other thing here is that the Twins are a much more effective offense when it comes to barreling the ball. Minnesota is 11th with an 8.3% Barrel% and Texas is 21st with a 7.2% Barrel%. With a couple of guys that tend to tilt a bit to the fly ball side, I think Barrel% is a relevant stat to examine. Minnesota manipulates launch angle a lot more effectively as well, as they rank fourth in average launch angle. The Rangers are 16th.
Homers create instant offense, whereas other teams have to manufacture runs. Add that to the fact that the Rangers bullpen has gotten a ton of work this week and it’ll be the Twins for me.
Pick: Twins +102
Atlanta Braves (-148, 8) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
We’ve got a solid pitching matchup at The Big A tonight between Spencer Schwellenbach and Jose Soriano. Soriano has been one of the few bright spots for the Angels this season and Schwellenbach has morphed into a really strong Major League arm for the Braves.
Schwelly has a 3.95 ERA with a 3.33 FIP in 70.2 innings of work. Since catching a breather over the All-Star Break, he has a 3.12 ERA with a 3.14 FIP and actually a 2.03 xFIP. He throws a ton of strikes and homers will happen here and there. He’s allowed five, which is why his xFIP is so low, but he’s got a 36/2 K/BB ratio in 26 innings over those four starts. I think he absolutely has the chance to keep that going tonight against an Angels crew that ranks 24th in wOBA in the second half. They also have a 23.4% K% against RHP since the Break.
Soriano has a 3.36 ERA with a 4.12 xERA and a 3.81 FIP. His transition to starting has gone really well, as he hasn’t lost any velocity and is a ground ball machine. The Braves have had issues with righties all season long and strike out way too much. Since the All-Star Break, they have a 26.5% K% against RHP. They are 17th in wOBA due to the home run, but Soriano has only allowed eight of those with his 59.4% GB%.
Like Schwellenbach, Soriano has been excellent since the Break with a 2.01 ERA and a 2.59 FIP in 22.1 innings of work. He had one bad start against Oakland, but has gone at least six innings in his other three outings.
Both bullpens are pretty rested. Atlanta’s had a busy start to the week, but that hasn’t been a problem the last few days. The Angels pen is very well-rested.
Pick: Braves/Angels Under 8 (-102)
