MLB Best Bets Today May 10
Fifteen night games send us off into the weekend, as all 30 teams take the field on Friday evening. There are only three interleague series for the second full weekend of May, so that leaves us with six series in each league.
The White Sox might actually be favored for the first time this season depending on how the line moves for the Garrett Crochet vs. Carlos Carrasco matchup. It’s a line to follow throughout the day and one that moved around a lot this morning.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 10:
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays (-115, 7.5)
7:07 p.m. ET
The Twins got healthy against the White Sox and Angels during their 12-game winning streak, but now they’ve won back-to-back series against the Red Sox and Mariners, so it hasn’t all been about taking advantage of the less fortunate. Minnesota heads north of the border for a very quick three-game road trip and they’ll send Joe Ryan to the hill in Game 1 against Yusei Kikuchi.
The Twins enter this series fourth in wRC+ against lefties at 126. Most importantly, their high strikeout rate for the season is due in large part to their struggles against righties, as they have a 22.4% K% against lefties that is still a touch on the high side, but grades more towards the middle of the pack.
Kikuchi comes into this start with a 2.72 ERA and a 2.33 FIP, so he’s been quite good this season, but he’s been giving up a ton of hard contact recently. Over his first four starts, Kikuchi allowed a 31.4% Hard Hit% and a 3.9% Barrel%. He had a 2.08 ERA with a 2.19 FIP and 29 strikeouts in 21.2 innings.
Over his last three starts, Kikuchi has 14 strikeouts in 18 innings and a 3.50 ERA with a 2.50 FIP, but he’s teetering on the brink of a really ugly start. He has allowed a 57.6% Hard Hit% and an 8.5% Barrel% in starts against the Royals, Dodgers, and Nationals. He’s allowed at least 10 hard-hit balls in each of those starts. The Twins don’t draw walks, so Kikuchi’s control is less of a factor in this game.
As for Ryan, he has a 3.54 ERA with a 3.02 FIP in 40.2 innings of work. He, too, is stingy with the walks. But, he’s also cut down on his home run rate this season. He’s allowed five dingers and has a 10.2% HR/FB%, a huge departure from last season’s 14.9% mark when he allowed 32 round-trippers in 161.2 innings.
The Blue Jays rank 23rd in wRC+ against righties this season, but they have a 9.3% BB% to boost that number. They only have a .221/.301/.351 slash, so they rank 24th in batting average and 27th in slugging percentage. The Jays are tied for 23rd in HR against RHP, which is typically the issue for Ryan. Also, since the dimensions changed at Rogers Centre, the park has been suppressing power.
Minnesota’s primary relievers had yesterday off, so they’ll be good to go today if called upon and I think the offense will be able to take advantage of Kikuchi’s recent command woes.
Pick: Twins -105
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (-112, 7)
7:40 p.m. ET
As mentioned in the intro, we’ve got Carlos Carrasco and Garrett Crochet here. I don’t know who will win the game, but this is a total of 7 and I’m a bit taken aback by how much this one has moved down.
Let’s start with Carrasco. As a Guardians fan, I love the dude. He’s a great humanitarian and was a really, really good pitcher for a long time in the 2010s. He’s still a great person, but he’s no longer a good pitcher. Carrasco has allowed 54 baserunners in 33.1 innings of work and, to be honest, he’s lucky to have a 5.67 ERA. He’s pitched out of a ton of jams and found ways to get by, but the quality of the stuff just isn’t there.
The White Sox hit Ben Lively pretty hard last night and they’ve been much more effective offensively here of late. Over the last 14 days, they’re actually around league average in Hard Hit% and Carrasco could help those numbers. He’s allowed a 43.7% Hard Hit% on the season, but that number actually goes up to 47.1% if you take out his first start of the season against Oakland.
Crochet has gotten back on track in his last two outings against the Twins and Cardinals, but the strikeouts shouldn’t be as much of a factor against Cleveland. The Guardians are a very aggressive team and also rank in the top 10 with a 119 wRC+ against lefties on the season. Crochet has allowed eight homers this season and all of them have come from right-handed bats.
Cleveland leads the league in Platoon%, meaning they’ve had the highest rate of left-handed batters against right-handed pitchers and right-handed batters against left-handed pitchers. Crochet has allowed a .458 SLG to righties thus far. I would expect six in the lineup today and maybe even seven if Austin Hedges is catching with David Fry in the outfield.
The White Sox have used Michael Kopech back-to-back days and I can’t imagine he’ll be used a third time, so their best reliever won’t be available. The Guardians may opt to go with some of their lesser hurlers as well, especially if Carrasco struggles like I expect he will. I also don’t think we’ll see an optimal defensive lineup from Cleveland as they try to squeeze all their righties in the batting order.
It’s juicy, but I just think 7 is too low for this one.
Pick: Guardians/White Sox Over 7 (-120)
Kansas City Royals (-118, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
Alec Marsh and Griffin Canning are the listed hurlers here, as the Royals and Angels square off for the second time in as many nights. Marsh is making his return from missing a couple of weeks due to some elbow discomfort. He made one rehab start for Triple-A Omaha and dominated the Iowa Cubs with four innings of shutout baseball. He only threw 53 pitches, but had enough up-downs for the Royals to feel comfortable recalling him.
Marsh comes back to a 2.70 ERA, but he has a 4.70 xERA and a 4.42 xFIP. He does have a 3.28 FIP because he’s only allowed one homer in his 26.2 innings, but his expected metrics do point towards some negative regression. Marsh has a .256 wOBA against, but a .342 xwOBA. His 4.70 xERA ranks in the 27th percentile and his .288 xBA ranks in the 12th percentile. He’s been a huge benefactor of the Royals defense with a .235 BABIP against. He doesn’t excel in any area other than his low BB%, but he ran an 11.4% BB% last season, so that could creep back in a start like this with a little rust to shake off.
He only ranks in the 16th percentile in Whiff% and 12th percentile in K%, so he’s a guy subject to a lot of variance and he’s been extremely fortunate to run the way that he has to this point.
On the Canning side of things, I’ve been extremely frustrated with how the Angels have handled him and his pitch selection over the years. Canning’s fastball is bad, but he’s still been insisting on throwing it way too often. Last time out, he threw just 24.1% fastballs/sinkers against Cleveland and allowed two runs on four hits with five strikeouts. He actually had five shutout innings before Jose Ramirez hit a two-run homer on the 10th pitch of his sixth inning plate appearance.
Canning had a season-high 14.9% SwStr% in that start by leveraging his changeup and slider more frequently. Recently, Canning has mixed up his pitch usage and actually added a little bit of velocity, so it seems like the Angels are making some substantive changes with him. The Royals do rank 26th per Statcast in Batting Value against four-seam fastballs, so I wonder what the gameplan is tonight, but Canning allowed 16 of his 27 runs over his first three starts and has allowed 11 runs in his last four, so he’s giving his team more of a chance.
Canning also has a 58.3% LOB%, so there’s some positive regression in his profile. The Royals are a top-five team in Outs Above Average per Statcast, but all of their positive stats in that department are based on ground balls. They’re a bottom-five outfield and Marsh has been a fly ball guy at the MLB level.
With a rested bullpen up against a Royals pen that has worked a lot this week, and dueling regression signs for the two pitchers, I’ll take a shot with the Angels here.
Pick: Angels -102
