MLB Best Bets Today May 17
The Friday MLB slate brings a lot of new series and a full card, with all 30 teams in action from 2:20 p.m. ET to 10:15 p.m. ET. We’ve got quite a few competitively-lined games here as well, after we saw a little bit of a shortage of those early in the week. It should be a good night for baseball and if you’re in a city hosting games this weekend, head on out to the ballpark and enjoy one.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 17:
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (-135, 8.5)
7:05 p.m. ET
The Mariners are on the East Coast to open up a three-game weekend set with the Orioles on Friday night. Bryce Miller gets the call for the Mariners and John Means draws the assignment for the O’s. It will be just the third start of the season for Means, who has allowed four runs on nine hits with 11 strikeouts and zero walks thus far.
I don’t see the increased swing-and-miss upside continuing for Means. I also have concerns about his ability to limit the long ball and other forms of damaging contact. He has allowed a 53.1% Hard Hit% in two starts with 17 hard-hit balls out of 32 balls in play, including a couple of Barrels. He’s pitching as an extreme fly ball guy right now, which may not be a bad idea in Baltimore because of the park dimensions, particularly to LF, but warmer weather and humidity will help the ball carry a bit more.
The Mariners have struck out a good bit this season, but they have made a little bit more contact in May. Their K% is also higher against RHP than LHP, so they have the chance at making more contact here against a southpaw like Means.
Miller has allowed a lot of hard contact this season and a lot of his last four starts specifically. He has a 44.4% Hard Hit% and also a 13.7% Barrel%. He’s been really fortunate this season that five of his eight starts have been at home, where offense is definitely suppressed. Over his last four starts, Miller has allowed a 53.6% Hard Hit% with a 16.1% Barrel%.
The Orioles rank sixth in wRC+ at 114. They are also third in Hard Hit% at 43.1% and lead the league in Barrel% at 9.2%. The Mariners are fourth in Hard Hit% at 41.6%.
I think this one is set up for some early offense. I hope Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver are good to return for the M’s. Scott Servais seemed to hint that they would be. I’m not interested in wrestling with two good, rested bullpens.
Pick: Mariners/Orioles 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (-166, 8.5)
7:07 p.m. ET
The Rays and Jays exchange AL East pleasantries north of the border this weekend, beginning with this matchup between Tyler Alexander and Chris Bassitt. I’m looking at a one-sided handicap here, largely because I don’t know what to expect from Bassitt. He’s been very unpredictable this season.
But, Alexander really hasn’t been and I think this is a very bad matchup for him. Alexander comes into this start with a 5.45 ERA and a 5.38 FIP. He just allowed six runs and three homers to the Yankees over seven innings, so credit to him for giving the team some length, but he had given up six runs by the fifth.
The Jays could throw eight or nine right-handed bats at him tonight, depending on what they want to do with Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier. The Jays have had some sickness problems, but yesterday’s off day hopefully leaves everybody available. If nothing else, they have a ton of right-handed bats that they can mix in and righties own a .301/.352/.549 slash with a .387 wOBA against Alexander this season.
I was trying to give him the benefit of the doubt for a while, even pointing out how he had been pitching better than his metrics had indicated, but he’s allowed a 45.9% Hard Hit% and a 13.5% Barrel% over his last five starts. He was allowing a fair amount of hard contact early, but nothing like this. Now he’s just out there getting hit hard.
The Blue Jays have a 107 wRC+ against lefties. They have the second-lowest K% at 17.4%. They actually have the second-highest BB% at 10.9% as well, so I do think Alexander Over 1.5 Walks Allowed at plus money is a good bet.
Officially, I’m going with the Blue Jays 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs at -105, but I think there are a lot of things you can look to do today with some player props and other derivatives for Toronto in what looks like a very favorable matchup. (You can find this on DraftKings under “Innings” and then “Team Total Runs – 1st X Innings”)
Pick: Blue Jays 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-105)
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-225, 8.5)
7:20 p.m. ET
The thing about betting big underdogs is that they are definitely going to lose more often than not, but the goal is to find a situation where said underdog has a better chance than the market implies. Given the way that the Braves offense has performed throughout the month of May and the fact that I truly believe that the Padres are a better team than they’ve shown thus far, I think this is one of those opportunities.
Matt Waldron has a 5.49 ERA, but he has a 4.39 xERA and a 4.46 FIP over his 39.1 innings covering eight starts. He has a 63.8% LOB% that is definitely having an impact on his numbers. He’s a weird dude to face because nearly 35% of his pitches are knuckleballs, but he can also throw a low-90s fastball. He ranks in the 73rd percentile in average exit velocity and 72nd percentile in Hard Hit%, so he’s done a pretty good job of limiting hard contact.
I think he’s an interesting guy against a Braves lineup that ranks third in Swing% and can be very aggressive. Atlanta is also 30th in Z-Contact%, which means that they make the lowest rate of contact on pitches in the strike zone. In other words, they swing through a lot of strikes. Obviously they are still plenty capable of doing damage, but Waldron doesn’t really get a lot of chases, so his margin for error comes from getting in-zone Whiffs.
Max Fried got the ball up a little bit in his last start against the Mets. He threw seven no-hit innings, so it didn’t really bother him, but it was his second straight start with a Hard Hit% in the 40s and he allowed two Barrels for the second straight outing. He’s also had single-digit SwStr% in his last two outings. I don’t think that the quality of his stuff has really been all that sharp lately and I feel like the Padres can take advantage.
San Diego is eighth in wRC+ in May. The Braves are 19th. Both bullpens are rested here and I think the Padres have a diverse relief mix that will be an interesting contrast to Waldron. I fully realize Atlanta wins this game more often than not, but this line feels steep to me.
Pick: Padres +185
