MLB Best Bets Today October 11:
We’ve only got one game on the MLB schedule for Friday night, but it is as big as they come at this time of the year. Game 5 between the Padres and Dodgers will decide who faces the Mets in the NLCS and who faces a long offseason of wondering what could have been.
We’ll get another win or go home game on Saturday night between the Tigers and Guardians, but tonight is all about the National League and a very heated rivalry.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 11:
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-142, 8)
8:08 p.m. ET
The Mets will begin the NLCS in California. We just don’t know yet if they’ll do so at Dodger Stadium or Petco Park. Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the chance to make amends for his poor Game 1 effort and Yu Darvish has the chance to pitch the Pads to his second victory of the series.
Yamamoto’s first playoff start didn’t go well, as he allowed five runs on five hits over three innings of work. He only struck out one batter, which is not what we saw from him during the regular season with 105 punchies in 90 innings of work. He gave up four batted balls over 100 mph, including a Manny Machado home run and one of the hardest-hit balls of the season on a 118.9 mph double from Fernando Tatis Jr. He also got unfortunate with two really soft hits against.
He just wasn’t sharp, which is concerning because he did have a September 28 start and then went on October 5 in Game 1, so it wasn’t like he had a huge layoff or anything. He did only make four starts after missing nearly three months, so I guess it’s fair that he wasn’t in great form. Will he be able to make the adjustments here?
Righties did have 23 extra-base hits against him in 189 plate appearances during the season, as he held lefties to a .267 SLG and a .237 wOBA, but righties had a .453 SLG to go with a .317 wOBA. All the high-velo batted balls in G1 were from righties.
Darvish, who owns a 3.88 ERA and a 5.55 FIP in 65 career playoff innings, allowed one run on three hits in his seven innings of Game 2. He only struck out three batters out of the 25 he faced. The game ended 10-2, but the Padres scored six of the runs after Darvish left, so it wasn’t like he was just coasting with a big lead. He did get staked to a 3-0 lead after two innings, though, so surely that helped him settle in.
Darvish was credited with using seven different pitches and his velo was up on all of them but the curveball, so that was encouraging after what was mostly a lost season for him dealing with personal matters. But, he only had eight whiffs in 40 swings. He was just able to keep the Dodgers off-balance with an average exit velo of 86.8 mph and just six hard-hit balls.
The margin for error without generating swings and misses is slim and that would worry me going into a second start against LA. The Dodgers had 28 games with five or fewer strikeouts during the regular season (five in Game 2). They were 20-8 in those games. Interestingly, one of those was a Darvish start back in April. Three of the games were against San Diego and they were 1-2 in them.
All in all, I don’t have a bet that I like in this one. I guess taking a shot with a right-handed batter for the Padres with a player prop may make sense, but I do think Yamamoto will be better. It may be set up well for live betting, as most MLB playoff games seem to be with all the managing and pitching changes.
I lean with the Padres at the plus-money price because I don’t think these teams are very far apart and this probably becomes a bullpen game relatively early, but no official pick.
