MLB Best Bets Today April 8
Thirteen games are on the betting board for Eclipse Day around the United States, as 26 of the league’s 30 teams will take the field. To my recollection, this is the first day of the season without a true day game, as the White Sox and Guardians get things started at 5:10 p.m. ET after the total eclipse leaves the Cleveland area.
Pitcher injuries are dominating the headlines right now and were a big topic on the newest edition of the Double Play Podcast with myself and Dustin Swedelson, so please give that a listen when it gets posted this afternoon.
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Lastly, article runs Monday-Saturday; all lines are current from DraftKings at time of publish; and I encourage you to shop around for the best numbers.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 8:
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-112, 9)
6:40 p.m. ET
This game is virtually a coin flip with juice, as you’ve got the Brewers taking on the Reds at Great American Ball Park. Aaron Ashby will make his first MLB start since 2022 and the Reds will send out the new-look Graham Ashcraft, who has made a lot of changes heading into the season.
Let’s start with Ashby, who went five innings at Triple-A in his 2024 debut with three runs allowed on four hits out of 20 batters faced. He struck out five, walked two, and had a balk. Ashby threw 46 changeups out of 77 pitches and many of them were uncompetitive.
Only 31 of Ashby’s 77 pitches were in the strike zone classified by Statcast and seven of the 13 batted balls he allowed classified as “hard hit” (95+ mph exit velocity). I think the most important thing for the Brewers is that he appears healthy, but I have a hard time believing he’s MLB-ready at present. In three MLB Spring Training starts, he allowed 11 runs on 14 hits over 8.1 innings with seven strikeouts against five walks and two hit by pitches.
Milwaukee used Thyago Vieira for 51 pitches on Sunday and long man Bryse Wilson threw 36 pitches on Saturday. JB Bukauskas, also recently recalled from Triple-A, could be an option in relief, but he’s a below average arm as well.
Admittedly, I am concerned that Ashcraft allowed 14 hard-hit balls against the Phillies in his first 2024 start, but Bryce Harper hit two tanks and he fared pretty well otherwise. He has pulled a Brandon Pfaadt and moved to the other side of the pitching rubber and he’s cut down on the usage of his cutter, throwing more sinkers instead. As a result, Ashcraft threw 56 strikes against 29 balls. Cutting down the walk rate with his pitch-to-contact style would be a tremendous help.
The Brewers typically aren’t that much of a hard contact type of team, as they rank 22nd in Hard Hit% this season. Ashcraft is throwing more sliders as well, a pitch that opposing batters only hit .220 on last season. Sinker command might take a little time, as he threw that pitch under 10% of the time last season, but the Reds have made some substantive changes with him and I’m willing to buy on the raw stuff profile.
Both teams have their primary relievers rested and available, but I think Ashcraft is more projectable than Ashby here and the Reds should be able to throw eight or nine right-handed bats at Ashby.
Pick: Reds -112
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays (-122, 8)
7:07 p.m. ET
The Mariners head north of the border as a small underdog against Toronto. Luis Castillo takes the mound for Seattle and Jose Berrios will make his third start of the season for the Blue Jays. There were some big differences between the first and second starts for Berrios. He actually gave up one fewer run in his second start compared to his first, as the Astros managed a solo homer, but I saw a lot of things that I did not like at all.
Let’s start with the continued high rate of hard-hit contact. Through two games, Berrios has allowed a 54.3% Hard Hit% with 19 hard-hit balls and an average exit velocity of 92 mph. The league average HH% right now is 38.3% and the average exit velo is 88.7 mph. Despite the good results, Berrios has been hit very hard.
His average fastball velo in his first start against Tampa Bay was 94.8 mph. It was 93.6 mph in his second start. All of his pitches were down across the board. Notably, his SwStr% dropped from 11% to 5.7% and his Zone% dropped from 45.1% to 34.1%. His Chase Rate was over 6% lower against Houston. It could be something, it could be nothing, but there were some mild spin rate decreases compared to last season as well (Statcast did not have spin rate data from his first start to his second).
On the flip side, this should be a good matchup for Castillo. Like most ground ball guys, he’s had platoon splits throughout his career in that lefties have hit him better than righties. Well, the Jays are a very right-handed-heavy group, especially with their premier offensive players. So far this season, Castillo has allowed a .485 batting average to lefties, but righties are still hitless in 16 plate appearances.
Righties posted just a .258 wOBA against him last season, as lefties batted .229 with a .316 wOBA. He did allow 28 homers last season, which could be a concern, but Rogers Centre played a lot stingier in the home run department with the dimension changes prior to last year. Castillo was better at home, as most guys are when they have a great pitching park, but righties still only had a .272 wOBA against him in 173 PA on the road.
I still have some worries about the Blue Jays pen with two key injuries to Erik Swanson and Jordan Romano. The middle relievers also got a lot of work over the weekend, so the bridges beyond Berrios to the high-leverage guys are a little bit weaker.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Berrios here to be sure, but also felt like the Mariners at a plus-money price was worth a crack with Castillo against a lineup that should be favorable for him.
Pick: Mariners +102
Arizona Diamondbacks (-175, 10.5) at Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
I’ve got a chalky prop for you here, but the Diamondbacks look like one of the best lineups in baseball against lefties and they face a really bad one here in Kyle Freeland. Freeland has allowed 17 runs on 19 hits in his 5.2 innings this season. He’s allowed 17 hard-hit balls and five barrels to this point in two starts, including a start against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
Maybe he’ll somehow put it together at Coors Field, but I’m not holding my breath. Righties are hitting a robust .586/.636/1.034 in 33 plate appearances with 17 singles, two doubles, a triple, and a homer. They’ve also drawn three walks, though it’s hard to draw a walk with so many hittable pitches in the zone.
Arizona is facing a lefty for the fifth time in six days, so their platoon bats and switch hitters have gotten a lot of reps from the right side. That doesn’t even include their March 28 game against Freeland when they scored 10 runs off of him and the relievers in just 2.1 innings of work.
Arizona’s 1st 5 Team Total is 2.5 Runs and juiced to -150. DraftKings doesn’t do anything other than half numbers on their derivative totals like this. With a 1st 5 Game Total of 5.5, it makes sense that 2.5 would be juiced to the degree that it is. It’s entirely possible that this goes up to 3.5 at plus money or reduced juice by first pitch and I think that’s fine as well.
To this point, Arizona is batting .319/.381/494 against lefties with a 138 wRC+. They have the fourth-lowest K% as well and it’s Freeland, so they should put a lot of balls in play at spacious Coors Field. This is also one of the top baserunning teams in the league, so they manufacture runs that way as well.
Last year’s D-Backs actually struggled against southpaws, so that was a point of emphasis this offseason and the early returns look good.
Pick: Diamondbacks 1st 5 Over 2.5 Runs (-150)
Tampa Bay Rays (-142, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
I’m looking at a player prop in this matchup between the Rays and Angels. Randy Arozarena draws a matchup with Tyler Anderson, who was exceptional in his first start for the Halos with seven shutout innings against the Marlins to begin the year. Anderson’s changeup usage spiked in a big way, as he threw the pitch 41% of the time, while mixing in his fastball and cutter as well.
Anderson actually threw his changeup 49.2% of the time against righties, with his fastball usage at 36.5%. Anderson’s changeup has always been effective against righties and it’s the reason why he’s been able to stay around as long as he has. However, Arozarena had a .414 BA with a .759 SLG on offspeed pitches from lefties last season with a 92.5 mph average exit velocity. He’s also done well against left-handed four-seam fastballs throughout his career.
Last season, Arozarena had a 134 wRC+ against lefties with a .254/.362/.466 slash line. He’s actually a .298/.381/.547 hitter for his career with a 158 wRC+ against southpaws. The stat in question here is “Hits + Runs + RBI” or “HRR” for short. Arozarena’s line is Over/Under 1.5, with the Over at -120.
I like this matchup for Arozarena, as a guy who has shown some success against offspeed stuff and punishes fastballs from lefties. He also got a day off yesterday in Colorado to get back on track. You can find this under “Batter Props” on DK or something similar at your book of choice (or the book with the best line!)
Pick: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120)
