MLB schedule today has 6 games
We’ve got an easy lead-in to this week’s baseball slate, as Monday brings us just a six-pack of games. This will be the last day short of double digits until the All-Star Break, which begins after the games are completed on July 9, so the teams might as well enjoy a day off while they can steal it.
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It’s a bit of a late start for me today after doing a spot on A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander to talk about the 2023 VSiN NFL Betting Guide, which comes out on Thursday. It is a huge week for us and we would greatly appreciate it if you would encourage your friends, family, and coworkers to subscribe, and even do so yourself if you haven’t. Along with all of the daily written content and our other season guides, we’re planning to unveil some exciting new betting tools this summer that you can access as part of your subscription.
It’s been a little while since I’ve taken stock of the offensive numbers around the league, so let’s do that briefly.
Season: .248/.320/.409, .297 BABIP, 22.7% K%, 8.7% BB%, 12.2% HR/FB%
June: .247/.318/.410, .296 BABIP, 22.7% K%, 8.4% BB%, 12.1% HR/FB%
Looks just about identical, eh? The first week of June was awful for offense, but things stabilized quickly.
Last 14 days: .251/.320/.416, .300 BABIP, 22.6% K%, 8.3% BB%, 12.5% HR/FB%
We’ll have to keep an eye on the homer numbers. It’s getting to be hot and/or humid in a lot of places now and that will drive more offense.
Let’s look at the Monday games.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 26 card (odds from DraftKings):
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (-175, 8.5)
It was a good weekend for the Brewers, who took two of three from the Guardians, who continue to get a ton of questionable in-game decisions from Terry Francona. Milwaukee heads to Queens to take on a Mets team in absolute shambles. Speaking of managerial decisions, the Mets turned a 6-3 lead into a 7-6 loss on Sunday when Buck Showalter didn’t want to use his well-rested primary relievers for some unknown reason.
We’ll see if he gets the chance to right that wrong today. Justin Verlander and the Mets are sizable favorites against Colin Rea and the Brewers, so the line would imply that New York will have a lead to protect. That may be a little bit of an optimistic take, since Verlander, who has a 4.50 ERA with a 3.88 xERA and a 4.33 FIP in 52 innings hasn’t been himself this season. Over his nine starts, he’s allowed at least four runs four times, including his last start against Houston with four runs on eight hits.
That said, if Verlander follows his current pattern, he’ll pitch well. Over his last seven starts, Verlander has allowed four, one, five, one, six, one, and six runs. Overall, he’s allowed a 44.3% Hard Hit% and a 7.6% Barrel%. But, the biggest takeaway to me is that he only has four starts with a double-digit SwStr% and only two in his last seven starts. As I talked about going into his last start, his K% is down 7.3% from last season and 4.3% from his caterer average, but down nearly 15% from his 2019 season.
Rea has a 4.88 ERA with a 4.28 xERA and a 4.86 FIP in his 62.2 innings of work. He’s got pretty pedestrian numbers across the board and has allowed 10 homers in 12 starts and one relief appearance. Since May 14, Rea has had four starts with at least four runs allowed and two starts of shutout baseball for at least five innings.
Neither starter is all that trustworthy here, though Verlander should at least have the higher ceiling and the Mets should have the better offense. It’s just not worth the big price.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-200, 9)
Matthew Boyd and Andrew Heaney start us off on the AL side with a southpaw skirmish in Arlington. Boyd has run on the wrong side of luck this season, as he has a 5.37 ERA with a 4.02 xERA and a 4.25 FIP in his 70.1 innings of work. He’s got over a strikeout per inning and a really solid 23.7% K% with a league average 8.3% BB%, but his 61.7% LOB% is what really stands out.
He’s allowed at least four runs five times in 14 starts, but for a guy who has only allowed 93 baserunners via hit or walk, his ERA should definitely be lower. He has just a 35.1% Hard Hit% and a 7.9% Barrel%, so the contact management metrics are solid for him as well. He has 11 starts with at least an 11% SwStr%. But, he has allowed a .374 wOBA with men on base and a .452 wOBA with RISP, so he hasn’t been able to buckle down at the right time or has run on the wrong side of variance in those spots.
Out of 140 pitchers to throw at least 750 pitches with a runner on base, Boyd’s average exit velocity of 88.2 mph ranks 55th, so there has definitely been some bad luck there for him. His opponent in Heaney ranks 67th at 88.9 mph, but he has a 76.9% LOB%. He’s got a 3.98 ERA with a 4.61 xERA and a 4.90 FIP in 72.1 innings of work. Like Boyd, Heaney has racked up strikeouts at a good rate, but he has a 10% BB%.
Heaney has not allowed more than three earned runs since May 3, as he has a 2.93 ERA with a 4.08 FIP over his last eight starts. He has an 80.4% LOB% in that span. The Tigers do have a 9.4% BB% against lefties, so we’ll see if they can get some runners that way against Heaney, but this is such a bad offense from a power standpoint.
I just don’t see a strong play one way or the other in this one. The Rangers continue to be second in wOBA against lefties, so it could be a tough matchup for Boyd.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-135, 8.5)
Dylan Cease and Reid Detmers wrap up the small AL slate with an interesting game out at the Big A. We think of the White Sox as being a good offense against lefties and, while they’re better against southpaws than they are against righties, they have a .311 wOBA and a 97 wRC+ in that split this season. They also have a 23.2% K% and just a 6.5% BB%, which is relevant against Detmers, who has a big 28.2% K% with a slightly elevated 9.1% BB%.
Detmers has allowed a .343 BABIP with a 68.8% LOB%, so there are some positive regression signs with his 4.02 ERA, 4.08 xERA, and 3.27 FIP. It seems like he’s really starting to experience it as well, as he’s allowed two runs on 10 hits in 18.2 innings of work against the Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers in his last three starts. Those teams rank 6th, 2nd, and 9th in wOBA against LHP.
In that span, Detmers has lowered his Hard Hit% to 40.2% and he’s only allowed three barrels in his last eight starts overall. He’s pitched better at home than on the road and way better against righties than lefties. Righties only have a .294 wOBA off of him in 234 PA, while lefties have a .362 wOBA in 64 PA.
The other big thing for Detmers has been his TTO splits. The first time through the order, he’s allowed just a .241 wOBA. The second time through, he’s allowed a .275 wOBA. The third time through, he’s allowed a .494 wOBA. It seems like he’s started to rectify that situation and I really like that he has 24 strikeouts in his last three starts against top-10 offenses vs. lefties.
Cease has a 4.22 ERA with a 4.40 xERA and a 3.99 FIP in his 85.1 innings of work. He’s got a 26.9% K% with a 10.5% BB% on the year. He’s also gone from a 31.2% Hard Hit% to a 46.9% HH%, though he’s been below that mark in each of his last four starts, so he may be starting to locate a little bit better. Over his last four outings, Cease has allowed six runs on 15 hits in 22.2 innings of work with 32 strikeouts against 10 walks.
Not only that, but Cease has a 19.4% SwStr% over his last four starts. It seems like he and pitching coach Ethan Katz figured out the slider, as he’s generating a ton of swing and miss on that pitch of late and has made some good adjustments. He’s faced the Rangers and Dodgers in his last two starts after getting on track against the Marlins and Tigers. Righties only have a .298 wOBA against Cease this season.
I like the 1st 5 Under here. Both Detmers and Cease are throwing the ball really well right now and seem to fare well in the important splits for this game. While Cease has a 5.05 ERA on the road, his wOBA against is identical to what he has at home, where he has a 3.62 ERA, so that’s just a matter of some crazy variance. He actually has a 3.55 FIP on the road this season.
DraftKings has 4 at even money. Most shops have 4.5 at -120 to the Under. I prefer 4.5 to 4, so I’m mostly suggesting this pick in hopes that you are somewhere with a 4.5, but I cite and track DK lines. Under 4 at +100 is fine, but Under 4.5 even at some juice is better. Shop around.
Pick: 1st 5 Under 4 (+100)
Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles (-130, 10)
The nerd in me is really fired up for this series, as the Reds and Orioles square off for three days worth of interleague action. Game 1 features Brandon Williamson and Cole Irvin in a battle of left-handers. Both guys only have seven MLB appearances this season, as Williamson didn’t get called up until May 16 and Irvin has spent time on the IL twice.
Irvin has made three appearances since coming back, as he’s made two starts with four runs allowed on 11 hits in 9.1 innings and then appeared in relief five days ago to throw an inning against the Rays. He’s got a 7.71 ERA with a 5.41 FIP in 23.1 innings of work, but he gave up 15 runs in 12.2 innings to open up the season. Clearly the IL stint was needed, but he came back and threw just one-third of an inning on May 20 before going right back there.
In theory, Irvin should be a good fit for Oriole Park, which is why he was targeted by the O’s after making 62 starts for the A’s over the previous two seasons. We haven’t really gotten a consistent enough sample size to make any determinations and I have no idea what he’ll do here.
The O’s are a top-10 offense against lefties and have a 10.1% BB% in that split, which is very relevant when it comes to Williamson, who has had walk rate issues in the minor leagues. The weird thing is that he’s only walked 13 of 159 batters at the MLB level and has actually not walked anybody in his last two starts. Still, he has a 5.40 ERA with a 5.78 FIP In 36.2 innings and only 27 strikeouts. His minor league numbers had high K and BB rates, but we’re not really seeing either one at the MLB level.
Per usual, any O’s handicap should include a look at the status of the bullpen. Felix Bautista has worked back-to-back days and Yennier Cano worked on Saturday. He’ll likely serve as the closer today with Bautista in a B2B, so keep that in mind if you like a full-game wager here. I don’t have anything in this one.
As a side note, the O’s called up INF Jordan Westburg, who was slashing .295/.372/.567 with 18 homers in Triple-A, so their lineup just got a little more dangerous.
Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves (-225, 8.5)
Sonny Gray and Spencer Strider make up the best pitching matchup of the night, as the Braves are a sizable favorite with a total of 8.5. The interesting thing here, though, is that both guys are struggling a bit. Strider has a 3.93 ERA with a 3.37 xERA and a 3.10 FIP for the full season over 84.2 innings pitched, but he allowed five runs to the Tigers and eight runs to the Mets before firing six innings of one-run ball against the Phillies last start.
The starts against the Tigers and Mets saw Strider allow five combined homers during a stretch in which he allowed a homer in six straight starts and 10 dingers in total. For the season, though, Strider has a 19.6% SwStr% and has struck out 39% of opposing batters. As we know, the Twins strike out a ton. They have the highest K% against RHP by a good margin at 27.1%, a full 1.4% higher than the Mariners.
The Braves have crushed some bad right-handed pitching lately, namely against the Rockies and Reds to move all the way up to second in wOBA in that split. Gray comes in with a 2.56 ERA, 3.78 xERA, and a 2.70 FIP, so he’s been one of the league’s better starting pitchers this season. His K% sits at 24.6% with an 11.4% SwStr%.
The concern here is that Gray has had a single-digit SwStr% in four of his last six starts and it feels like he’s teetering on the brink of really getting shelled. He has not allowed more than three runs in a start this season and actually went until June 3 without giving up a home run. He’s only allowed two in his 81 innings pitched.
What greatly concerns me about Gray is that his K% is dropping rapidly. Over his last five starts, he has 18 strikeouts in 116 batters faced for just a 15.5% K%. He has faced the Astros, Guardians, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Red Sox, so some teams that really don’t strike out a lot, but still. I guess I see a lot more downside than upside in this start and this matchup for Gray.
With the high price tag on Minnesota and a really good day for hitting with temps in the 80s and humid conditions, I can’t do anything with this game.
Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners (-250, 8)
The Mariners are heavy favorites with Luis Castillo on the bump against Trevor Williams and the Nationals. This is a pretty simple handicap when it comes to Castillo. He has allowed a .231 wOBA in 207 PA at home with a 2.03 ERA, a .169 BA against, and a 2.44 FIP. Compare that with a 5.47 FIP on the road in 146 plate appearances with a .347 wOBA against and you can see that he’s simply a lot more comfortable at home in the pitcher-friendly environment of T-Mobile Park.
That gives the Nationals a pretty low projection offensively, which would’ve been the case anyway since they are 23rd in wOBA against righties.
It also means that Williams will be asked to do a lot to keep his team in the game. He has a 4.14 ERA with a 5.23 xERA and a 5.16 FIP in his 76 innings pitched. His biggest issue has been the 14 homers that he has allowed. He’s actually allowed just a 37.6% Hard Hit% and kept his team in the game about as well as he can. He has allowed seven unearned runs, including six in one start, but he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 15 starts.
The thing that is a bummer here for Williams is that he only has a 17.6% K% and a 8.2% SwStr% because the Mariners will strike out a lot. They have a 25.7% K% against righties, which ranks second behind the Twins. I do lean towards the under here, as this ballpark should suppress some of the mistakes from Williams, but I’m not terribly confident in that play.
Rough card. Small card. A lot more to talk about tomorrow.
TL;DR Recap
CHW/LAA Under 4 (+100) – shop around for Under 4.5 at -120 or better
