Tuley’s Takes: Monday MLB Best Bets 6/26


Sunday Best Bet Results

Sunday was a fun day around the Tuley’s Takes home office.
I mostly spent it watching sports, but also having a pizza party with the kids and making s’mores in our backyard firepit.


It helped take the bad taste out of my mouth from another losing day with my sports bets (it’s a good thing I had that 28-1 horse racing winner on Saturday or it would have really been a lost weekend).
I lost my favorite play of the day on Sunday on the Guardians First 5 Innings -110 vs. the Brewers when Milwaukee led 4-1 after 5 innings as the Brew Crew got to Cleveland’s Aaron Civale and the Guardians only managed the 1 run on Corbin Burnes. I also lost my USFL play on the New Orleans Breakers +3.5 as that was even more of a blowout in a 47-22 loss to the Birmingham Stallions.
We’re down nearly 8 units in June at -$797.72 based on $100 straight bets, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page. Now, regular readers know it hasn’t been quite that bad as we’ve had some “non-Best Bet” winners and many of our wins have paid better than our posted plays, but it’s still been a disappointing month after winning 15.6 units in May.
I’m reminded that I struggled at this time last year, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that it’s happened after the NBA and NHL playoffs ended as it seems to be easier to find solid plays with more sports to choose from. The silver lining is I brought myself out of last year’s slump after the MLB All-Star Break by concentrating on First 5 Innings plays, so we’re hoping that will help us this summer as well and that this recent slump is a speed bump.
Anyway, let’s look for some plays on Monday. Note: I don’t have an official play yet on the USFL Championship Game on Saturday. As we discussed with VSiN colleague Greg Peterson on “The Greg Peterson Experience” show last night, the Birmingham Stallions have opened as 6-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Maulers. I want to play the underdog but was hoping the line would be at least 7. I fully expect to get that later in the week as the public will probably be looking to bet the Stallions as the defending champions, plus anyone cashing on them as the chalk in their rout on Sunday won’t be deterred from betting them again at any price. I’ll have more on that game when I make my pick official later in the week.

MLB Monday Best Bets

Reds First 5 Innings +115 and +130 full-game ML at Orioles: The Reds had their 12-game winning streak snapped on Saturday by the Braves, and then lost their “anti-swagger” game on Sunday. But now, their slate is clean and we expect them to get back on the winning track again. They averaged 6.58 runs per game during their streak and offense wasn’t the problem in their back-to-back losses as they scored 6 runs in each game. Now, Elly De La Cruz (the most exciting player to watch in the majors right now) and the Reds get to face Baltimore’s Cole Irvin (1-3, 7.71 ERA). I’ll take the Reds as underdogs on both the First 5 and full-game money lines.

White Sox First 5 Innings +110 at Angels: As I also gave out on “The Greg Peterson Experience,” I just believe the Angels (record of 42-37, 53.2%) are being overpriced too much in this matchup at -135 on the game money line (57.4% implied chance to win). It’s my belief that oddsmakers are making the public pay a premium because they know bettors want to back a team that scored 25 runs on Saturday. But the fact is the Angels still lost the weekend series 2-1 to the lowly Rockies and that’s the Angels team that is more likely to show up. We’ll also take Dylan Cease (3-3, 4.22 ERA) vs. Reid Detmers (1-5, 4.02 ERA), who the Angels usually don’t give much run support.