MLB Best Bets Today May 13
It is a busy Monday on the MLB card, but not until later, as all 14 games on the schedule are night games. Action starts at 6:35 p.m. ET in Baltimore and will go throughout the evening to kick off a new week around the league.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Top MLB Resources:
Catch a new edition of the Double Play Podcast with Dustin Swedelson and yours truly every Monday and Thursday. It’s Monday, so catch a new episode today!
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 13:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-192, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
9:45 p.m. ET
DraftKings Sportsbook erroneously has Gavin Stone listed as the starter here at time of publish, as manager Dave Roberts came out yesterday and said that Yoshinobu Yamamoto would get the call on Monday and Stone would go on Tuesday. The rest of the market seems to mostly have it right, so this is where the line is supposed to be.
The Giants are really shorthanded right now. Jung Hoo Lee separated his shoulder yesterday trying to make a catch. Patrick Bailey was on the IL, came back for a game, and then got scratched yesterday because he’s sick. There are five players on the IL, all from this month, and Lee will join them today.
That seems like a problem going into a matchup with Yamamoto, who has a 2.79 ERA with a 3.36 xERA and a 3.09 FIP in his first eight MLB starts. He’s struck out 47 and walked just eight. He’s going on an extra day of rest here, which is what the Dodgers are planning to do with their starters throughout the course of the season. Yamamoto has held the opposition to a 33.3% or lower Hard Hit% in each of his last three starts. He allowed a lot of hard contact early, but he has cut that down a lot lately.
On the Giants side, I’m actually looking to fade Jordan Hicks a bit. I nearly played the Over in his last start in Colorado and wish I would have, as Hicks allowed three runs over five innings and got a bunch of run support. He’s allowing a lot of hard contact lately, as he’s allowed a 40.3% Hard Hit% over his last five starts and has been at 46% or higher in three of them. He also allowed a couple Barrels in each of his last two starts, which is a problem for an extreme ground ball guy.
He doesn’t generate a lot of chases and I think the transition to starting is beginning to take a bit of a toll. He’s walked 10 guys over his last four starts and the Dodgers are one of the most potent and disciplined lineups in the league.
From a bullpen standpoint, the Giants used five relievers on Saturday and four on Sunday, including closer Camilo Doval. With Hicks not working all that deep into games lately, I think some lesser arms could come into play.
With the Giants missing some key bats against Yamamoto and some regression signs present for Hicks, I’m content with laying the -1.5 at -115 on a day when very little is jumping off the page.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
