Today a new week begins with a 14-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (-145, 8.5)
The Pirates (18-23) are 4-9 over their last 13 games and just dropped two of three against the Cubs, losing 5-4 on Sunday as +105 home dogs. On the flip side, the Brewers (24-16) just took three of four against the Cardinals but failed to complete the sweep, losing 4-3 on Sunday as -150 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates hands the ball to Mitch Keller (3-3, 4.41 ERA) and the Brewers turn to fellow righty Colin Rea (3-0, 3.29 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -125 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Brew Crew laying short chalk at home, steaming Milwaukee up from -125 to -145. The Brewers are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, signaling lopsided Pro and Joe support as well as a massive 20-cent steam move in their favor. The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .254 with 48 homers and 203 runs scored compared to the Pirates hitting .222 with 34 homers and 150 runs scored. Favorites with a winning record coming off a loss, as is the case here with the Brewers, are 79-39 (67%) with a 13% ROI this season. Milwaukee is +35 in run differential. Pittsburgh is -27. The Brewers also have the better bullpen (ERA 3.70 vs 4.25). Milwaukee is hitting .264 against righties this season, 2nd-best in MLB. Pittsburgh is hitting .214 against righties, ranking dead last (30th).
7:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (-135, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
The Nationals (19-20) just lost two of three against the Red Sox, falling 3-2 on Sunday as +120 road dogs. Meanwhile, the White Sox (12-29) just took three of four against the Guardians but failed to complete the sweep, losing 7-0 on Sunday as +145 home dogs. In tonight’s Interleague Series opener, the Nationals start righty Trevor Williams (4-0, 1.96 ERA) and the White Sox send out fellow righty Chris Flexen (2-3, 4.29 ERA). This line opened with Washington listed as a -120 road favorite and Chicago a +105 home dog. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on Washington, steaming the Nats up from -120 to -135. Washington is receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, signaling a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. The Nationals have the better offense, hitting .228 with 160 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .213 with only 119 runs scored. Road favorites off a loss, like the Nats here, are 55-30 (65%) with a 13% ROI this season. Fading the White Sox has resulted in a 29-12 (71%) record with a 9% ROI. Washington also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Nats are 12-10 on the road. The White Sox are 8-13 at home.
9:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks (-150, 8.5)
The Reds (17-23) are 1-10 in their last 11 games and just dropped two of three against the Giants, falling 6-5 in extra innings on Sunday as +105 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks (19-22) just dropped two of three against the Orioles but avoided the sweep with a 9-2 win on Sunday, cashing as +110 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Reds start righty Graham Ashcraft (3-2, 3.86 ERA) and the Diamondbacks tap lefty Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 4.70 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -140 home favorite and Cincinnati a +125 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Snakes at home, steaming Arizona up from -140 to -150. The Diamondbacks are receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both public and sharp support in addition to a ten-cent steam move in their favor. Arizona has the better bats, hitting .246 with 205 runs scored compared to Cincinnati hitting .215 with 171 runs scored. The Diamondbacks have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Arizona is 3-0 against Cincinnati this season. Montgomery pitched against the Reds his last time out, going 7 innings and giving up only two runs in a 4-3 victory. The Reds are hitting .214 against lefties this season, ranking 26th in MLB. Arizona is +17 in run differential. Cincinnati is -7.
