MLB Best Bets Today May 27
Memorial Day is here, marking the unofficial start of summer and it will also be a busy Monday on the diamond with 11 games on the holiday. I’ll be back to more of a normal routine this week after having some commitments last week, so hopefully a little bit of a breather here and there will bring some better results.
Thank you to those who served, those who continue to serve, the families and friends who support them, and those who paid the ultimate sacrifice in service of the United States.
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On a completely different note, we had our first two picks with pitching changes on Friday when I did the article. Back on Opening Day (and throughout the first week), I noted that I would simply be using ‘Action’ to avoid confusion with the article, so those picks are tracked accordingly (one won and one lost). I always encourage readers to select the ‘Listed Pitchers’ line on DraftKings or wherever you place your bets – that’s the game I handicapped and the game we want to bet into. However, as I said, to avoid confusion, different lines that are more difficult to find, or maybe not even listed at your book of choice, etc., I’m just treating picks as ‘Action’ for tracking purposes.
For those unfamiliar, ‘Action’ means the bet goes off at the line you bet it, even with a revised moneyline because of a pitching change. ‘Listed Pitchers’ means one or both (depending on which option you select) must start for the bet to be in play. If you select ‘Listed Pitcher(s)’ and there is a pitching change on the guy(s) you selected, the bet will be voided. Obviously, that is preferable because those are the two starters that you broke down in your handicap.
Had I been using ‘Listed Pitchers’ for the article, the only bet that would have been valid on Friday is the Guardians vs. Angels because the Brewers used an opener (Jared Koenig) instead of Bryse Wilson and the Tigers used Kenta Maeda over Matt Manning. Even though my pick was the Blue Jays, I would always select both Listed Pitchers, so it would have been voided.
Perhaps that creates additional confusion, but I’m trying to get from A to B in the straightest line possible with the picks and tracking, so I felt like ‘Action’ would just be the easiest way to do that.
Alright, let’s get to the Monday card and hope we don’t have to deal with this again today.
Article (usually) runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Catch a new edition of the Double Play Podcast with Dustin Swedelson and yours truly Monday and Thursday. No episode with the holiday, but we’ll be back on Thursday.
Here are the MLB best bets today for May 27:
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (-122, 8)
4:10 p.m. ET
Southpaws go head-to-head today at American Family Field when Justin Steele and Robert Gasser take the ball for their respective teams in this NL Central battle. The Brewers lead by 3.5 games in the division and the Cubs come in having dropped four in a row. Milwaukee is the only team in the NLC with a positive run differential and they’ll look to add to their record in this one.
The Brewers have actually played 10 more road games than home games to this point, so we’ll see if that ends up being an advantage the rest of the way. This will be the third home start for Gasser in four outings. He struggled on the road in Miami last time out, but that was a vengeful appearance from the BABIP gods. He allowed five runs on 10 hits over six innings, but he allowed an 18.5% Hard Hit% in that start and his first Barrel of the season.
Gasser has a 19.7% HH% over three starts covering 61 batted ball events and has only issued one walk. I would expect some more strikeouts soon as well, as he has a 70.4% F-Strike%, a 10.4% SwStr%, and a 58.9% Zone% per Statcast. More whiffs should absolutely be coming. He’s a 50% GB% guy who doesn’t get himself into trouble and limits hard contact. It is a really nice profile, particularly against a Cubs team that ranks 28th in wRC+ against lefties here in May with a mark of 63, meaning they are 37% below league average in that split.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are 10th in wRC+ against southpaws this month at 108. They also draw a guy in Steele who is really scuffling at present. Steele has allowed 16 runs (15 earned) on 18 hits over his last three starts. He’s struck out 15 and walked four, so there may be a little positive regression in the profile, but that also assumes a reasonable level of command. Steele has allowed a 48.1% Hard Hit% and an 11.5% Barrel%.
I hate when guys get hurt early in the season because it feels like they have to go through Spring Training all over again to get where they need to be. Right now, Steele is going through that. It is his fifth start back and I think he could be on the right track soon, but the Brewers hit lefties well and hit for power, which is problematic given that Steele isn’t his usual worm-killing self at present.
Both bullpens have been solid this month and are rested, but I think it’ll be Milwaukee with a lead to protect and the full-game line is cheaper than the 1st 5 at DK. Shop around, because you can even get the full-game line cheaper at other shops.
Pick: Brewers -122
Cleveland Guardians (-130, 10.5) at Colorado Rockies
4:10 p.m. ET
The Guardians have won nine in a row as they make their way to Denver to take on the Rockies. It will be Xzavion Curry and Austin Gomber in this matchup, as Curry makes just his third start of the season. Gomber makes his 11th on the heels of eight outstanding innings against the A’s when I bet against him.
The same rationale and justification for betting against Gomber is present here. He comes into this start with a 2.76 ERA, 4.13 xERA, 4.59 FIP, and a 4.19 xFIP in 58.2 innings of work. He has a .292 wOBA with a .324 xwOBA. His low walk rate is a really big positive this season, but the Guardians don’t walk anyway, so I don’t think it matters much here.
Gomber is a huge negative regression candidate in my eyes and Cleveland comes in with a top-five offense against lefties in the month of May. They have a 132 wRC+ in that split with a .235/.332/.480 slash. They actually do have an 11.1% BB% in that span, but I like the power production and also that some key players are surging right now, especially Jose Ramirez, who has hit 10 homers and struck out 11 times in May.
Cleveland will run out seven righties in all likelihood tonight. Gomber has allowed a .291 wOBA to lefties. By season, his wOBA against righties are .345, .237 (86 PA), .319, .376, .347. I don’t see a lot of sustainability with what he’s doing this season and the Guardians have the right type of offense to knock a guy like him around. I feel similarly today to when I took them last Friday against Patrick Sandoval.
Curry has allowed a 58.1% Hard Hit% in his two starts and allowed three Barrels. As a guy with questionable control and command, I can’t imagine Coors Field will be a good spot for him. As a starter in his MLB career, Curry has allowed a .282/.348/.451 slash with a .346 wOBA. He’s also a pitch-to-contact guy with a 14.3% K%. There isn’t a lot of margin for error in that kind of profile.
While the Cleveland bullpen has been exceptionally good this season, a short start from Curry brings a lesser arm like Pedro Avila into the fold. There are also several guys on the roster who have never pitched in elevation like this. I think Colorado will be able to bang out some runs here. I expect Cleveland to stay hot and also deal the regression that Gomber has coming.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-120)
Houston Astros (-130, 7.5) at Seattle Mariners
9:40 p.m. ET
Framber Valdez and Bryce Miller are the listed starters as this series opens up at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Valdez is coming off of a disastrous start against the Angels in which he allowed eight runs, but it was said that Valdez went off-script and ignored the plan that was discussed before the game, as well as the pitches called during it.
As an aside, I do wonder if maybe that’s been a bit of an issue for the Astros, given a lot of turnover on the coaching staff and the front office over the last few seasons. I wonder if it’s just catching up with them this season, though I don’t really have any definitive way to prove my theory.
But, I don’t think we’re just looking at that being the only problem for Valdez. He’s been struggling to locate for the most part since he came back on April 28. Valdez only allowed a 25% Hard Hit% in his first start against Colorado, but he has allowed a 55.1% Hard Hit% in the four starts since, including a very rough outing against the Mariners in that span. He allowed three Barrels and a 60% HH% in that May 4 start.
Valdez has been inconsistent with generating swings and misses and we all know that Seattle’s biggest issue is swinging and missing. They do have a lot of platoon bats and will be able to load up on righties against the Astros tonight and RHB have a .271/.327/.406 slash with a .323 wOBA against Valdez this season. That is the highest right-handed wOBA against Valdez since 2019 and he also has his lowest K% (19.7%) against RHB since 2019. He’s not locating all that effectively.
Miller heads back home to the friendly confines of the PNW here. I thought that Bryan Woo would be the one to be compromised at Yankee Stadium last week and picked accordingly with the Yankees 1st 5 Team Total Over, but it was actually Miller, who allowed five runs and surrendered three homers. In 30.1 innings at home this season, Miller has a .160/.226/.274 slash against with a .227 wOBA and a 36/9 K/BB ratio.
In 28.1 innings, he has a .224/.270/.477 slash against with a .321 wOBA and he’s allowed eight of his 11 homers with just a 20/7 K/BB ratio. He’s definitely a different guy home and away and he’ll be at home where offense is typically suppressed.
With Valdez battling through some things, including a lot of hard contact, and Miller back at home, I like the Mariners at a home underdog price. Both bullpens are in similar spots and I don’t think it is a positive or negative for either.
Pick: Mariners +110
