MLB Best Bets Today May 11
All 30 teams will be in action on Saturday, as we’ve got baseball from 3:07 p.m. ET all the way through the late-night hours. The big story is the MLB debut of Paul Skenes. I wrote all about that in a separate article and I don’t have a bet on the game, so if you’re interested in my thoughts on that game, you can read those here.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 11:
Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox (-155, 8.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
Jake Irvin and Cooper Criswell are the listed starters in this one at Fenway Park on a little bit of a chilly afternoon in Boston. There should be a ton of balls in play in this game. Criswell has found success to this point under the tutelage of first-year pitching coach Andrew Bailey, who is doing an incredible job with this pitching staff. However, Criswell ranks in the 9th percentile in Whiff% and 32nd percentile in K%. He’s a soft-tosser who has gotten a bit fortunate in the BABIP and LOB% departments.
The Red Sox aren’t a very good defensive team, yet Criswell is running a .271 BABIP. The low BABIP is also shocking with a 54.1% Pull%, as hitters typically hit the ball harder and with better contact authority when pulling it. He’s also got a 79.2% LOB% with that low strikeout rate and very little swing and miss in the arsenal. The Nationals are among the league leaders in stolen bases as well, so with his pitch-to-contact stylings and limited strikeout upside, I think the Nationals will have a chance to do some damage in this game.
Irvin is a big negative regression candidate, as he comes in with a .306 wOBA against, but a .340 xwOBA. He’s allowed a .253 BA, but has a .290 xBA. He’s allowed a lot of hard contact to this point with a 46.7% Hard Hit% and he has also allowed seven Barrels over his last three starts. He has a 3.72 ERA with a 4.61 xERA.
Statcast isn’t too keen on his expected performance going forward with those high “x” stats. The other thing is that he ranks in the 15th percentile in Whiff% and 29th percentile in K%. He’s also in the 13th percentile in Hard Hit% and that Barrel% is going in the wrong direction. With Fenway Park’s short dimensions, I’d be very concerned about those numbers in this outing.
I was torn between the 1st 5 Over 4.5 at -120 and the full game Over 8.5 at -110. The Nationals pen does have three relievers that have worked three of the last four days and two of them have worked four of the last six days. The Red Sox pen is quite fresh. I’ll stick with the 1st 5 since that’s what my handicap is predicated on thanks to the starting pitchers.
Pick: Nationals/Red Sox 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-120)
Cleveland Guardians (-166, 8) at Chicago White Sox
7:10 p.m. ET
It has been an ugly series for the Guardians, as they’ve dropped the first two to the White Sox and now turn to Triston McKenzie against former teammate Mike Clevinger.
This is a one-sided handicap for me and it is to look at McKenzie, whose strikeout prop sits at 5.5 with +140 on the Over. It seems like the Guardians have made the necessary adjustments with McKenzie, and maybe he’s simply trusting his body more after missing most of last season opting to rehab a torn UCL rather than go the surgical route.
McKenzie has had at least six strikeouts in each of his last four starts, including seven strikeouts over just four innings against Boston back on April 25. Over those four starts, Sticks has a 2.57 ERA with a 3.91 FIP, so he’s pitched much more effectively, plus he has 25 strikeouts in his 21 innings of work.
Per Sports Info Solutions, McKenzie has a 12.9% SwStr% in that span and he’s also done a better job of getting ahead of hitters. He’s generating a lot more chases and has been better about maintaining his velocity. He’s doing a pretty good job of getting whiffs from both sides of the plate and the White Sox aren’t a team interested in drawing walks.
With McKenzie throwing the ball more efficiently now and a pretty juicy plus price on something he’s done in four straight starts, I think it’s worth a look here.
Pick: Triston McKenzie Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+140)
Cincinnati Reds (-142, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
7:15 p.m. ET
To the Bay we go for the matchup between the Reds and Giants. It will be Nick Lodolo and Mason Black, as Black makes his second career start and first start at Oracle Park. Cincinnati won last night to end an eight-game losing streak, but offense continues to be a problem for this team and Black’s debut is not necessarily indicative of where things stand.
Black began his MLB career against a Phillies bunch that ranks third in wRC+ at 117, which means they are 17% above league average. Cincinnati ranks 26th with an 82 wRC+. The Phillies are one of the league’s better plate discipline teams both ways, as they rank fourth in BB% and 16th in K%. Usually teams that walk a lot strike out a lot…like the Reds, who are ninth in BB%, but also have the fourth-highest K%.
Over six starts in the minors, Black had a 1.01 ERA with a 29/8 K/BB ratio in 26.2 innings of work. He had only allowed three earned runs and seven runs total. He’s been solid at each minor league level and was well-deserving of the call-up. He gave up a three-run homer to Bryce Harper when he turned the lineup over for a third time in his debut, which is absolutely going to happen. He actually allowed one run over his first four innings.
Cincinnati actually has just a 60 wRC+ in the last 14 days, so they’ve really been bad offensively. They’ve actually stopped walking of late, as pitchers are just attacking their hitters in the zone because nobody has really proven to be all that feared. Black is a strike-thrower and I think he’ll settle in better here with the safety net that Oracle Park provides thanks to the atmospheric conditions.
I really do like Lodolo, but the left-hander has allowed a 42.4% Hard Hit% this season with a 9.1% Barrel%. He’s actually allowed a HH% of 50% or higher in each of his last two starts, though the most recent one came against a Baltimore team that has scorched lefties all season. Ultimately, I just don’t think the Reds deserve to be this big of a favorite and feel like this is a good price to grab on the Giants, especially with Black in a more favorable spot.
Both bullpens are in pretty decent shape for this one. This has been the better split offensively for the Giants. At plus money, and a growing price at that, I like their chances here.
Pick: Giants +120
