MLB Best Bets Today October 12:
A spot in the ALCS is on the line when the Tigers and Guardians play Game 5 at Progressive Field this afternoon. First pitch was moved up to 1:08 p.m. ET due to the threat of some rain tonight (and maybe, just maybe, to avoid going up against Ohio State vs. Oregon).
So, here we go, this is for everything, with storylines in high supply for tonight’s win or go home battle.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 12:
Detroit Tigers (-120, 5.5) at Cleveland Guardians
1:08 p.m. ET
It will be a rematch of Game 2, as Tarik Skubal and Matthew Boyd come together. Boyd was very emotional in his off day press conference about getting the opportunity to pitch in this game and the hardships of recovering from Tommy John surgery. Skubal is the presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner and hasn’t given up a run since the first inning of his September 18 start against the Royals.
It feels like that’s about how long it took Cleveland to score one, as they got shut out in Games 2 and 3 before scoring in the first inning of Game 4. The teams scored seven of the game’s nine runs in the final five innings, but Cleveland scored one more to force another game in the series. Cleveland had lost 11 straight elimination games dating back to Game 6 of the 1997 World Series against the Marlins. As everybody knows, they lost Game 7 in devastating fashion.
There really aren’t any secrets in this series now. Well, there is one and I’m curious to see if he makes an appearance in Game 5. The Guardians have not yet used Gavin Williams, who was sent to the bullpen at the end of the regular season to get ready for a potential spot like this. He had a 4.86 ERA with a 4.14 xERA and a 3.67 FIP in 76 innings after posting a 3.29 ERA with a 4.21 xERA and a 4.05 FIP over 82 innings in his rookie season last year. Those aren’t impressive numbers, but he is a dude who could sit 98-99 coming out of the bullpen. He hasn’t pitched since September 22 and I don’t know if there’s a spot where Stephen Vogt would trust him, but it is an interesting thought.
Boyd battled in his Game 2 start over 4.2 innings with five strikeouts, four hits, two walks, and no runs. He stranded runners on third in the third inning and fourth inning, including a leadoff double in the fourth. Against the lefty, feared Tiger slugger Kerry Carpenter is not in the lineup, but we’ll see if he’s available to pinch hit after hurting his hamstring scoring a run in Game 4 on Thursday.
There isn’t much to say about Skubal, who has been elite this season and in two playoff starts. He posted a 2.39 ERA with a 2.70 xERA and a 2.49 FIP in 192 innings in the regular season and has scattered seven hits, a walk, and a hit by pitch over 13 innings in the playoffs with 14 strikeouts.
I don’t have a bet here. The Guardians pen has allowed six runs on 12 hits with 26 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. Three of those came on the Carpenter homer. The Tigers pen has allowed 10 runs on 25 hits in 34 innings. The total of 5.5 somehow may not be low enough, but it is as low as you’ll see a MLB total go.
I lean Tigers with Skubal because Detroit has a better chance at scoring off of Boyd than Cleveland does at scoring against the best pitcher in the AL. That way, you can start with a Detroit position and take Cleveland at a better plus-money price live if you want to. That said, I could argue that Boyd could be better, given that he hadn’t pitched since September 21 when he took the ball on October 7. Now he’s on a regular rest turn in the rotation.
All I know is I’m rooting for the Guardians and the Over/Under on my peak blood pressure here is 190/140.
