MLB Best Bets Today August 8:
The National League will be twice as busy as the American League today, as we’ve got six games in the NL and three in the AL for Thursday. One interleague game is also in the mix, giving us a 10-pack of action for today.
Four of the NL games are early starts and three come in the 9 a.m. PT hour, so bettors will have to be quick on the trigger for those games. The rest of the slate is late as we roll towards another weekend of important action in the playoff chases around Major League Baseball.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 8:
Cincinnati Reds (-175, 7.5) at Miami Marlins
6:10 p.m. ET
The Reds send ace Hunter Greene to the hill and the Marlins send work-in-progress Kyle Tyler out there to finish up this mid-week set. Greene has allowed one run on 10 hits in his last 33 innings with a 40/9 K/BB ratio. For those keeping track, that’s a 0.27 ERA and he certainly has a good chance to neutralize the Miami lineup here.
My focus in this game is the Cincinnati offense against Tyler. They’ve struggled in the second half, but primarily against lefties. They’ve got a 97 wRC+ against righties, so they’ve held their own in that split. In this one, they draw a guy in Tyler who has allowed 15 runs on 31 hits in 25.1 innings as a starter at the MLB level. That’s a 5.33 ERA with a 5.06 FIP.
Tyler has only completed five innings once, so his Under 14.5 Outs Recorded prop intrigues me at plus money, but I’m looking at his Hits Allowed prop. That one is at 4.5 with -115 each way.
In three starts since the All-Star Break, Tyler has allowed 10 runs on 21 hits in 11.1 innings. He’s allowed 9, 7, and 5 hits in those starts and has allowed a 52.6% Hard Hit% with a 10.5% Barrel%. That’s a lot of hard contact to say the least. He’s actually struck out or walked 20 of 58 batters and has still gone over this total in all three of his starts.
With that much hard contact and a lot of questionable command, I think the Reds will be able to put some balls in play with success here. I also think that Under 14.5 Outs prop isn’t a bad investment at +115, especially with all of his deep counts.
Pick: Kyle Tyler Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115)
