MLB Best Bets Today May 16
One day game and five night games are on the small Thursday schedule, as only 12 of the league’s 30 teams will take the field. We also have a $2 favorite and a $3 favorite, so it could be a tricky day for baseball bettors. It might be a day to dig into player props or analyze the NFL schedule instead, but the quest to find an edge never truly ends, does it?
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 16:
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-130, 7.5)
7:40 p.m. ET
Excitement is already at a fever pitch for Paul Skenes’ second MLB start, which comes tomorrow, but the reality is that we’ve already seen Jared Jones shine at the big league level. He’ll have another chance here tonight as his Pirates take on Justin Steele and the Cubs.
Steele struggled in his last start against Pittsburgh with six runs allowed over four innings. This will be his third start off the IL and he’s had one good one against the Padres and one bad one against the Pirates. What stands out to me is that Steele isn’t generating a lot of swings and misses right now and he’s also not working very deep into games.
I often look to fade pitchers that get hurt early in the season. You do all your prep work in Spring Training to get ready for the year and then have to sit around and nurse an injury. In Steele’s case, he made one rehab start and the Cubs shoved him back into the rotation. I’m just not sure that he’s the guy we’re used to seeing.
Jones is off to an excellent start with a 2.68 ERA, 3.06 xERA, and a 3.45 FIP over 47 innings of work. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start and has struck out over 30% of opposing batters while carrying an elite walk rate. He has 56 strikeouts against just seven walks in his eight starts. This will be his first time facing a team for the second time, but despite four strikeouts, the Cubs had an 18.4% SwStr% against him and only a 33.3% Hard Hit%. I expect he’ll be sharp again.
Both bullpens are rested and the Cubs pen has actually been solid ever since Adbert Alzolay hit the IL, so I’ll stick with the 1st 5, since it’s Jones over Steele that I truly prefer in this one.
Pick: Pirates 1st 5 (+105)
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers (-325, 7.5)
10:10 p.m. ET
The late game of the evening takes place at Dodger Stadium, as Tyler Glasnow gets the call for the heavily-favored LA bunch and Brent Suter serves as the opener for the Reds. The goal for Suter is to get through the Mookie Betts-Shohei Ohtani-Freddie Freeman trio one time and then turn it over to Nick Martinez, who was bumped to the bullpen with the return of Frankie Montas. With Nick Lodolo on the IL, the Reds have to be creative for the fifth spot.
For now, that means the Suter/Martinez tandem, as Suter takes the hill with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.28 FIP over 25.2 innings of work. He’s had two big blow-ups that have accounted for eight of the 11 earned runs that he has allowed, but he has only allowed three runs in May across 7.2 innings of work. Lefties own a .195/.209/.366 slash against him with a .248 wOBA this season, so he’s been very effective against that side of the split and that is the task at hand here today.
We’ll see if the Reds try to push him a little bit farther than that, but I like the idea of Martinez in a bulk role. In 33.1 innings this season, Martinez has started and relieved. He had a 6.86 ERA over 21 innings as a starter and allowed a .374 wOBA. As a reliever in 12.1 innings, he has allowed a .228 wOBA and has a 1.46 ERA. He was effective primarily as a reliever for the Padres in 2022 and 2023, posting 3.47 and 3.43 ERAs with 4.43 and 3.92 FIPs, respectively.
As for the Reds offense, they draw a really tough assignment with Glasnow, who has allowed four runs on 15 hits over his last 28 innings covering four starts. He’s got a 39/6 K/BB ratio in that span and has three double-digit strikeout games. He’s also pitched at least six innings in all four of them, so he’s been extremely effective in every way imaginable.
The Cincinnati offense is quite bad with an 84 wRC+ and their 25.3% K% is among the highest in the league. This should be an excellent spot for Glasnow to keep the momentum rolling. Also, the Dodgers have a 31% caught stealing rate on defense, which is 10% above the league average. The Reds like to run, but that threat should be neutralized by a limited number of baserunners and how well the Dodgers have done to control the running game.
Both bullpens have a sufficient number of fresh arms and it will be a little bit cool in Chavez Ravine tonight, so it’s the Under 7.5 for me.
Pick: Reds/Dodgers Under 7.5 (-115)
