MLB Best Bets Today April 15:

Another day on the diamond beckons, as all 30 teams take the field on Tuesday. We’ve also got nothing but night games on the slate, as three games go off at 6:40 p.m. ET and those will be the earliest starts on the April 15 card. For those who prefer balance, we have five NL games, five AL games, and five interleague games, so today’s card is split perfectly.

The deeper we get into the season, the more data points we get, so hopefully we have more to go on than last year’s stats and some small sample size conclusions. We’re also at the point where rotations are quite jumbled, so you’re getting aces and other front-line guys up against back-of-the-rotation arms, creating some bigger favorite lines.

As a heads up, there will not be a Wednesday article, as I have a prior commitment.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for April 15:

Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-135, 8.5)

6:40 p.m. ET

One of those 6:40 starts will be at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, where the Pirates entertain the Nationals. It will be Jake Irvin and Mitch Keller as the three-game series in the Steel City gets underway.

This is a huge step down in class for Irvin, whose three starts have come against the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers. Those three teams rank 15th, 5th, and 9th in wOBA, but we know that the Phillies will not be a league average offense throughout the course of the season. Today, Irvin draws a Pirates club that ranks 28th in wOBA at .266. Not only that, but the Pirates are really being helped by their 10.2% BB% to even be where they are. 

Among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched, Irvin’s Zone% of 57.7% ranks 10th. Coincidentally, he is just percentage points ahead of Keller, who is also at 57.7%. The Nationals have a solid BB% of 9.6%, but they are nearly 90 points higher than the Pirates in SLG and 36 points higher in batting average. Washington’s young offense is off to a pretty decent start, even with CJ Abrams now on the shelf with a strained hip flexor.

Keller has a 4.24 ERA with a 2.80 FIP, so you might think that positive regression is on the horizon. He is stepping down in class a bit after facing the Yankees and Cardinals, but Keller comes in with a wOBA against of .293 and a xwOBA against of .383. He ranks in the 17th percentile in xERA at 5.84 and 6th percentile in xBA at .328. He doesn’t generate a lot of Whiffs or strikeouts. His fastball velo is below the league average and so is his Hard Hit%.

Irvin also has ugly expected numbers, but like I said, he’s faced some outstanding offenses and  now faces a very bad one. Furthermore, I think his ability to pound the strike zone takes away one of the few things that the Pirates do well and that is draw walks.

Washington’s bullpen has been objectively terrible this season, ranking 30th in ERA and 28th in FIP, while the Pirates are 16th in FIP and 11th in ERA. As a result, I’ll just take the Nationals as an underdog on the 1st 5.

Pick: Nationals 1st 5 (+114)

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees (-218, 8.5)

7:05 p.m. ET

Michael Wacha and Max Fried are the listed hurlers here on a very breezy day in the Bronx. That shouldn’t impact Fried much, as he’s one of the game’s most proficient ground ball artists. He’s got a 51.9% GB% this season with a 21/3 K/BB ratio and a 1.56 ERA with a 2.22 FIP over 17.1 innings of work.

Wacha has been less effective overall and in terms of inducing ground balls. He has a 4.20 ERA with a 4.03 FIP in his 15 innings of work. This will be his first road start of the season, as he comes in with an 11/8 K/BB ratio. He’s still doing a pretty good job of limiting hard contact with a 34.1% Hard Hit%, but he has allowed two Barrels in each of his last two starts. He’s also faced the Twins and Guardians in two of his starts and neither offense has impressed this season.

It is a big price to lay with New York and we have seen a line move towards the Yankees to make them a larger favorite. But, I’m looking at a pitcher prop here and it is Max Fried to Record A Win at +125. It is a small price, but I admittedly looked very hard at his Outs Recorded prop at Over 18.5 and +135. The Royals don’t strike out a lot and don’t walk a lot. They’re a pretty aggressive lineup on the whole when it comes to trying to put balls in play.

Fried, who is a tremendous strike-thrower with a low walk rate and a ton of ground balls, has the chance at a truly spectacular start this evening. And I’m looking to fade Wacha this season off of a career year and a much larger workload than normal. 

The Yankees bullpen has been solid with a 3.50 ERA and a 3.42 FIP over 61.2 innings and there aren’t any huge fatigue concerns, so I think they’ll hold it down if need be.

Pick: Max Fried (NYY) To Record A Win (+125)

Atlanta Braves (-112, 7.5) at Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 p.m. ET

This didn’t work out for me against the Padres, but it was an excruciating beat, as Spencer Schwellenbach only struck out four Padres when we needed five to get over the same line he has tonight at 4.5 strikeouts. Schwellenbach has had two-strike counts on 40 of 71 hitters this season and has 19 strikeouts in that split. That’s a 47.5% K% with two strikes. 

Last season, he faced 500 hitters and had two strikes on 289 of them with 127 strikeouts, so that’s 43.9%. He’s actually done pretty well putting guys away this season, though he did have 10 strikeouts against the Marlins.

The Blue Jays are a top-five team in strikeout avoidance, but I can’t bypass this number. The Blue Jays did have a strong performance against him last season with six runs (three earned) on 10 hits over five innings. So, we should see some adjustments here, as he’ll get to pitch indoors with the Rogers Centre roof closed on a chilly night north of the border.

I expect another good, efficient effort from Schwelly, as he’s allowed just one run on 10 hits thus far with only three walks. He should have enough two-strike chances to get us there.

The Blue Jays are fifth in Chase Rate, but first in O-Contact% and second in Z-Contact%. Hopefully Spencer’s stuff is nasty enough to generate more whiffs. 

Pick: Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-125, 8.5)

8:05 p.m. ET

It will be Yusei Kikuchi and Tyler Mahle in this one, as these AL West rivals come together. It has been a rough start for Kikuchi, who has gone at least six innings in every start, but has allowed 10 runs on 15 hits over 18 innings of work. He has walked eight and given up four home runs already. He only walked 44 all of last season against 10 times as many batters, so he’s really fighting with his control and command right now.

The Angels have pushed Kikuchi to throw his slider more, as he had good results on the pitch last season with a .207 BA and a .276 SLG against. The pitch generated a 29.7% Whiff%. This season, though, the spin rate is down 120 rpm on Kikuchi’s slider and he has already allowed almost as many home runs (2) as he did last season (3) on the slider in 600 fewer pitches. His Whiff% is down to 17.8% on the slider thus far.

Most notably, righties have a .313 BA with a .750 SLG on his slider so far with just a 14.3% Whiff%. Righties had a 30.3% Whiff% on the slider last season. The Rangers can throw as many as eight right-handed bats at Kikuchi if they wish. He’s allowed all four homers to RHB so far and they have a .255/.339/.527 slash with a .376 wOBA. Between the decreased effectiveness of his slider and a bit of a velo drop on the fastball, Kikuchi just isn’t all that sharp right now.

Mahle is off to a solid start thus far, as he’s allowed two runs on five hits over 13.2 innings of work. He has allowed a lot of fly balls and has issued seven walks, so his xERA is not a big fan of his performance to this point. He’s allowed a little bit of hard contact as well, but he’s only allowed three Barrels. Also, he has a history of limiting hard contact, whereas Kikuchi has allowed a ton of it and has always had a home run problem.

The Rangers bullpen has been excellent thus far and the Angels are missing a really key piece in Ben Joyce, who regularly runs fastballs up there at 104 mph. I think the Rangers have advantages with the lineup, starting pitcher, and bullpen here, so -125 is a cheap price to pay.

Note: Mahle was not listed as the starter this morning at DraftKings, but he should be.

Pick: Rangers -125

Chicago Cubs (-162, 8) at San Diego Padres

9:40 p.m. ET

Late-night action at picturesque Petco Park brings the Cubs and Padres together for Game 2 of this series. It will be Shota Imanaga and Randy Vasquez for their respective teams. Both pitchers have some negative signs in their profiles. Vasquez has been able to limit hard contact enough to pitch around 12 walks in just 15.2 innings, as he’s only allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits. His 25% Hard Hit% is the biggest reason why, as he’s run a .159 BABIP with a 78.9% LOB%.

I do think that there are ways to fade Vasquez here. It’s fascinating that righties have drawn eight walks in 31 plate appearances, but also only have just one hit. He’s walked eight batters with men on base against only one strikeout, but opposing hitters are batting .154 in that split. Perhaps it will be the Cubs that deliver some knockout blows, as they’re facing him for the second time in 11 days. They drew five walks and scored three runs, but only had two hits.

I’m actually focusing on fading Imanaga here, though. With Justin Steele out for the season, the health of Imanaga is critically important and I’m getting a little worried. Now, I will preface this by saying that he did make his last two starts at Wrigley Field and it was not warm. However, his average fastball velo in those last two starts was 90.3 and 90.2 mph, more than 2 mph off of his Tokyo Series start and just about 2 mph off of his Chase Field start on March 29. I do get a little worried about pitchers that have a weird start to the season like he did.

With that decreased velo, Imanaga has allowed seven Barrels in his last two starts, including one against the Padres. He still threw 7.1 innings of one-run ball against them, but it caught up with him last time out against the Rangers. He allowed five runs on seven hits in that one.

With the decreased velo, his spin rates were also down. We’ll see if he bounces back in that department in San Diego with first-pitch temps in the upper 50s. I’m worried that there’s something more going on under the hood, especially off of last season’s increased workload being in the U.S.

The Padres are seventh in wOBA against LHP and have the second-lowest K% behind the Diamondbacks. I think Over 1.5 for the 1st 5 team total at -130 is pretty reasonable juice.

Pick: Padres 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-130)

Side note: If Seiya Suzuki and/or Carson Kelly are in the lineup, they may not be bad players to use in walk props against Vasquez – nothing was posted at DK this morning, as both missed the last game.