MLB Best Bets Today April 16
One day game throws off the balance of today’s 15-game slate, as the Rangers and Tigers play a businessman’s special at Comerica Park. Otherwise, the other 14 games start at 6:35 p.m. ET or later, giving everybody ample time to handicap the card and decide which bets to make.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 16:
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles (-155, 8.5)
6:35 p.m. ET
We’ll see Chris Paddack and Grayson Rodriguez at Oriole Park in this one, as the Twins and Orioles play Game 2 of a three-game set. The Orioles won 7-4 last night on the strength of three home runs against Louie Varland.
The Orioles should be set up well offensively in this one also. Paddack looked better in his second start against the Dodgers, but he’s still not generating a whole lot of swing and miss and I really don’t like this matchup with seven lefties in the Baltimore lineup. To this point, Paddack has one strikeout in 16 plate appearances against lefties. It’s a very small sample size, but all four of his pitches against righties have a Whiff% of 20% or higher. Only his slider does against lefties, but he’s only thrown nine of those out of 61 pitches.
Paddack likes to attack lefties with his four-seam fastball and changeup. The changeup used to be a premier pitch for him, but he’s dealt with a lot of injuries. It was a super useful pitch against LHB in 2021, but we’re a long way removed from that. As a team, the Orioles rank fourth in pitch value against changeups, which is important because a lot of right-handed hurlers will try to attack their left-handed-heavy lineup with that type of pitch.
In his two starts, Paddack has pitched out of trouble against lesser right-handed hitters at the bottom of the order, like Austin Barnes and Miguel Rojas against the Dodgers and Gary Sanchez for the Brewers. The Orioles don’t really have that anywhere in their lineup.
Minnesota’s offense is off to a brutal start with an 82 wRC+. They also have a balloon K% at 27.5%. Against a guy like Rodriguez, who has a 13.1% SwStr% and 21 strikeouts in 18 innings, I would expect them to swing and miss a lot. They are definitely missing Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa, plus Max Kepler remains out.
Rodriguez gave up some hard contact in his first start of the season against the Angels, but he’s had a Hard Hit% under 40% in each of his last two starts and his Chase Rate has increased with each outing. The Twins have the third-highest SwStr% per FanGraphs and they’ve swung through a lot of pitches in the zone, which is actually G-Rod’s specialty.
The Orioles should put more balls in play early in this game and have some platoon advantages in my opinion.
Pick: Orioles 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-115)
San Francisco Giants (-142, 8.5) at Miami Marlins
6:40 p.m. ET
Jordan Hicks and Ryan Weathers square off down at Marlins Park in the second game of this series. The Giants drew first blood with yesterday’s 4-3 comeback win, cashing a Giants ML ticket for us from the article. Today, I’m looking at a player prop and it has to do with Hicks.
The experiment to turn Hicks back into a starter has paid some huge dividends for the Giants thus far. He’s worked 18 innings over three starts with two earned runs allowed on 12 hits. He’s only walked three and struck out 13, as he’s done a masterful job of limiting hard contact with a 32.7% Hard Hit% and only three barrels allowed. He’s running a 56.3% GB% with his new sinker and splitter combo, plus he’s been absolutely pounding the strike zone early in counts with a 74.2% F-Strike%.
The Marlins have the second-lowest BB% at 7.0% and rank around the middle of the pack in strikeouts at 22%. They also have the fourth-highest number of plate appearances ending on the first pitch. They are a really aggressive lineup, but haven’t had a ton of offensive success with that aggression. They far and away lead the league in GB% at 51.2%, so that should play right into what Hicks wants to do with his revamped arsenal.
Hicks efficiently got through six innings on just 80 pitches last time out on April 10, five days after his previous start. On extra rest back on April 5, Hicks got pushed out to 91 pitches over seven innings against the Padres. He’s on an extra day of rest here, so I think the Giants will be content to let him go a little longer as they try to responsibly navigate his workload.
The Giants infield ranks fourth in Outs Above Average this season. Hicks has been a benefactor with that high GB%, but he’s also done a great job of limiting hard contact. The Marlins are 29th in Hard Hit% and 24th in Barrel% with the lowest average launch angle in the league. Hicks should be able to avoid walks and kill a bunch of worms in this one with ground ball after ground ball and a quality infield defense in support.
Pick: Jordan Hicks Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+100)
Kansas City Royals (-192, 8) at Chicago White Sox
7:40 p.m. ET
Debutant Jonathan Cannon will take the mound for the White Sox in this one with rain in the forecast and a really stiff wind blowing in. The breeze is forecast to be blowing in around 20 mph and storms could threaten this game on a warm and humid evening in the Windy City. The threat of rain can sometimes speed up games and induce some early-count swings, so if this one gets started and the radar looks daunting, the teams will be looking to take care of business as quickly as possible. It’s not like the White Sox really want to be out there anyway.
But, it is a special day for Cannon, who was drafted out of Georgia in 2022 and makes his MLB debut following Nick Nastrini, who made his debut last night and pitched well. Cannon is a 6-foot-6 right-hander with a heavy sinker and pretty good command. He does have some platoon concerns going forward, as most sinkerball guys do, but the lefties for the Royals aren’t that daunting and their bench is full of righties.
Cannon struggled against Triple-A Norfolk, the Orioles affiliate that just might have had the best minor league lineup ever assembled at the time he faced them back on April 4. He was much better in his second start against Triple-A Jacksonville, the Marlins affiliate. He was really sharp in Spring Training with three runs allowed on 11 hits in 11 innings with a 10/1 K/BB ratio over four MLB ST appearances.
Brady Singer gets the call here for the Royals, as he looks to build upon his excellent start. Singer has allowed two runs on 10 hits in 18.1 innings with 18 strikeouts, so he’s really been throwing the ball well and has limited hard contact with a 28.3% Hard Hit% against. He did have 10 strikeouts in his first start against the Twins and has allowed a little more hard contact in his starts against the White Sox and Astros since.
Admittedly, there are some clear regression signs in Singer’s profile and I think we’ll have some fade opportunities moving forward as he faces better opposing offenses. Singer’s enormous ground ball rate and strong infield defense will make it hard for a team like the White Sox to string together a lot of run-scoring opportunities.
The Royals are second in Outs Above Average as an infield at +6. Only the Rangers are higher. So, I expect that the Royals will be able to suppress the Chicago offense, as many teams have thus far. But, I like Cannon’s ground ball stylings and this matchup for his debut.
The wind helps. Both bullpens are in fine shape. I’m expecting a low-scoring affair in this one.
Pick: White Sox/Royals Under 8 (-118)
