Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 16, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most popular features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the DraftKings Sportsbook data detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Makinen outlined 10 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed during the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System matches: PLAY L.A. DODGERS (-270 vs. WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor looking for, but it is not a loss, and definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): N.Y. METS (-120 vs. PIT), CLEVELAND (-105 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (-125 at MIL), SEATTLE (-130 vs. CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-250 vs. COL), PLAY L.A. DODGERS (-270 vs. WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 UNITS and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-115 at HOU), SEATTLE (-130 vs. CIN), ST. LOUIS (-148 at OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 UNITS and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System matches: PLAY OVER in PIT-NYM, PLAY UNDER in KC-CWS, PLAY OVER in CIN-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since a lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System matches: FADE BOSTON (-115 vs CLE), FADE SEATTLE (-130 vs CIN), FADE ARIZONA (-125 vs CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 UNITS and ROI of +9.2%.
System matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS, SAN FRANCISCO, N.Y. YANKEES, PITTSBURGH, KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA, ST. LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 UNITS and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, it will at least keep bettors in the game.
System matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL, KANSAS CITY RL, L.A. DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1,200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 117-101 for -12.79 units.
System matches: SAN FRANCISCO, PHILADELPHIA, N.Y. METS, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, N.Y. YANKEES, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA, SEATTLE, ST LOUIS
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%. So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 12-4 for +3.94 units.
System matches: FADE L.A. DODGERS (-270 vs. WSH)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is negative at 13-10 for -6.88 units.
System matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-250 vs. COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season. This angle is so far 10-5 and has lost -0.86 units.
System matches: FADE L.A. DODGERS (-270 vs. WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 31-36 record, for -0.05 units. This angle did win just shy of a unit last week and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+105 vs. SD), DETROIT (+105 vs. TEX), MINNESOTA (+142 at BAL), CLEVELAND (-105 at BOS), N.Y. YANKEES (-105 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. In 2024, these two-game teams have gone 21-18 for +4.16 units after a 6-10 for -3.96 units last week. The three-game teams are 10-9 for +2.25 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based on the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System matches: 2-games — FADE SAN DIEGO (-125 at MIL), FADE BALTIMORE (-170 vs. MIN)
3-games — FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at AZ), FADE TORONTO (-115 vs. NYY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,459-1,373 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -183.73 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System matches (FADE): SEATTLE (-130 vs. CIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proved to be bankroll-busting options over their last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1,318-1,711 (43.5%) for -163.64 units and an R.O.I. of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+205 at PHI), TEXAS (-125 at DET), N.Y. YANKEES (-105 at TOR), KANSAS CITY (-185 at CWS)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2,942-2,579 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -393.69 units and an R.O.I. of -7.1%.
System matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-170 vs MIN), NY METS (-120 vs PIT), SEATTLE (-130 vs CIN)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 827-708 (53.9%) record in the follow-up game since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.70 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.6%.
System matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-115 vs. CLE), TORONTO (-115 vs NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+154 vs KC)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 422-351 (54.6%) record in the next game when at home in that same period. The profit there is +27.24 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.5%.
System matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-115 vs. CLE), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+154 vs. KC), HOUSTON (-105 vs. ATL), ARIZONA (-125 vs. CHC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System matches: COLORADO +205 (+29 diff), WASHINGTON +220 (+37 diff), DETROIT +105 (+26 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System matches: N.Y. METS -122 (+22 diff), N.Y. YANKEES -115 (+16 diff), ATLANTA -115 (+20 diff), SEATTLE -130 (+26 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System matches: KC-CWS OVER 7.5 (+1.0), CIN-SEA OVER 7 (+0.9), PIT-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.9), NYY-TOR OVER 8 (+0.7), TEX-DET OVER 8 (+0.5), CLE-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System matches: CHC-AZ UNDER 10.5 (-0.9), WSH-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), STL-OAK UNDER 8 (-0.6)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) COLORADO (4-13) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (9-8)
Trend: Austin Gomber is not good when overmatched on paper, just 2-12 (-8.20 units) as a large underdog of +175 or more
System match: FADE COLORADO (+205 at PHI)
(955) PITTSBURGH (11-6) at (956) N.Y. METS (8-8)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 14-3 (+10.1 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last five seasons
System match: PLAY N.Y. METS (-122 vs. PIT)
(957) SAN DIEGO (10-9) at (958) MILWAUKEE (10-5)
Trend: Milwaukee was 10-3 (+7.25 units) in night starts by Wade Miley last season (1-0, +1.20 units this season)
System match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+105 vs. SD)
(959) CHICAGO CUBS (10-6) at (960) ARIZONA (8-9)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks is not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-11 (-7.75 units)
System match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at AZ)
(965) MINNESOTA (6-9) at (966) BALTIMORE (10-6)
Trend: Baltimore is 11-1 (+9.95 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below-.500 teams
System match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-162 vs. MIN)
(967) L.A. ANGELS (8-8) at (968) TAMPA BAY (9-8)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 16-5 (+6.65 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last five seasons
System match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-148 vs. LAA)
(969) N.Y. YANKEES (12-5) at (970) TORONTO (9-8)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is just 6-11 (-6.77 units) in his last 17 starts with NYY
System match: FADE N.Y. YANKEES (-105 at TOR)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 11-15 (-11.78 units) as a night home favorite in his career
System match: FADE TORONTO (-115 vs. NYY)
(971) CLEVELAND (11-5) at (972) BOSTON (9-8)
Trend: Cleveland was 9-2 (+7.15 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee last season (1-0, +1.00 unit this year)
System match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-105 at BOS)
(973) KANSAS CITY (11-6) at (974) CHICAGO WHITE SOX (2-14)
Trend: Kansas City is 5-8 (-7.30 units) as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range with starter Brady Singer
System match: FADE KANSAS CITY (*if they fall into this line range, -185 currently*)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #3: Chicago Cubs at Arizona, Mon 4/15-Wed 4/17
Trend: Underdogs are 11-3 (78.6%, +9.54 units) in the last 14 of the series
The R.O.I. on this trend is 68.1%.
System matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at AZ)
Series #12: Pittsburgh at N.Y. Mets, Mon 4/15-Wed 4/17
Trend: Favorites are 12-1 (92.3%, +10.52 units) in the last 13 games between Pittsburgh and N.Y. Mets
The R.O.I. on this trend is 80.9%
System matches: PLAY N.Y. METS (-122 vs. PIT)
Series #19: N.Y. Yankees at Toronto, Mon 4/15-Wed 4/17
Trend: FAVORITES are just 18-29 (38.3%, -23.28 units) in the last 47 games between Toronto and N.Y. Yankees
The R.O.I. on this trend is -49.5%
System matches: FADE TORONTO (-115 vs. NYY)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
