MLB Best Bets Today July 1

All 30 teams take the field on July 1, as a new month on the diamond gets underway. Seven interleague matchups are among the 15 games, as we have only three division rivalries going on early in the week. One of them is a really big one up in Toronto between the Yankees and Blue Jays, as the hosts took down Game 1 on Monday.

Today’s game in that series is a day game (Happy Canada Day!) and that is the only day game on the slate. Everything else starts at 6:35 p.m. ET or later, so there is plenty of time to handicap the card for Tuesday.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 1:

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (-164, 8.5)

6:35 p.m. ET

Nick Pivetta and Cristopher Sanchez make up one of the better pitching matchups of the day. Pivetta has certainly enjoyed his time away from the AL East and Fenway Park, as he comes into this start with a 3.36 ERA, 3.80 xERA, and a 3.26 FIP in his 91 innings of work. But, I am less excited about his prospects in this start than normal.

Let’s start with the low 31.8% GB%. It is a lot easier to survive being a fly ball pitcher at Petco Park than it is in other venues. Pivetta’s HR/FB% of 9.7% is easily a career-best. His previous best was 12.4% in 2022. Most of his seasons have been above 15%. Well, there’s an imbalance in his splits because he’s worked 53 innings at home and 38 innings on the road. In those 38 road innings, his pitcher split compared to home is +19 points in batting average, +71 points in OBP, and +81 points in SLG. His wOBA against is 70 points higher on the road. Also, his HR/FB% on the road is 10.9%, so inching closer towards those career marks.

On the road, Pivetta’s BB% is more than doubled at 9.9% and his K% is about 5% lower. While I grant that one of his worst road starts came at Coors Field, he is going to a warm and humid environment tonight in Philly, so I think he could struggle as a guy who has mostly gotten away with a 40.3% Hard Hit% and an 11.4% Barrel%.

Sanchez checks in with a 2.79 ERA, 3.18 xERA, and a 2.95 FIP in his 93.2 innings of work over 16 starts of his own. He’s an extreme ground ball guy with a 55.4% GB%. While he has allowed a similar Hard Hit% at 40.4%, his Barrel% is less than half of Pivetta’s at 5.6%. The Padres are 21st in wOBA against LHP over the last 30 days and 22nd for the season. One of their best attributes is that they don’t strike out, but they’re facing a guy with over a strikeout per inning and an extreme ground ball rate.

To me, it is a much more promising outlook for the Phillies offense with the potential for more power production rather than having to string a ton of hits together against a guy with a .229 BA against.

Pick: Phillies 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-125)

Minnesota Twins (-156, 8) at Miami Marlins

6:40 p.m. ET

Not a whole lot of respect for the Marlins here, as they return home on a seven-game heater. The Marlins went out west and swept both the Giants and Diamondbacks on the heels of taking two out of three from the Braves. Miami has actually won nine straight road games now. But, they’re home for this one at loanDepot Park, where they’ve only scored 3.76 runs per game compared to 4.85 runs per game on the road.

The Marlins have now hit 46 homers in their 41 road games and just 26 homers in their 41 home games. That’s unfortunate today because Joe Ryan is the opposing starter and he has one of the league’s best K/BB ratios and boasts a 2.86 ERA with a 3.32 xERA and a 3.22 FIP over 91.1 innings of work. The way to score against Ryan historically has been the long ball. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher and he’s given up 85 of them in 99 career starts and one relief appearance.

He should really enjoy pitching in the friendly confines of South Florida. He’s allowed more than three runs in a start three times and two of them came in Sacramento and in Atlanta, two places where the ball can definitely carry. The Marlins are batting .245/.316/.369 at home compared to .263/.319/.410 on the road. They actually grade as a top-10 road offense. They are a bottom-10 home offense.

Edward Cabrera gets the call for Miami here. He checks in with a 3.78 ERA, 4.12 xERA, and a 4.05 FIP in 64.1 innings of work. He’s a tough at bat. He has a lot of swing-and-miss upside, but also has major control issues. For the fourth straight season, he has a K% over 25% and a BB% over 10%, though his 10.5% mark this season is the best of his career thus far. The Twins have the sixth-worst O-Contact%, meaning that when they chase, they don’t make a lot of contact. That’s how Cabrera gets a lot of his swings and misses, though he’s somehow really good at throwing first-pitch strikes.

Anyway, the Twins haven’t really seen much of him and have the eighth-lowest BB% in the league and the fourth-lowest BB% against right-handed pitchers. Following the off day, all bullpen arms are available and the Marlins have gotten some outstanding work from their pen lately with a 2.55 ERA over the last 14 days. You don’t go on a seven-game heater and eight of nine without relievers doing their jobs. I prefer this route to laying the higher vig on Under 4.5 for the 1st 5.

Pick: Under 8 (-115)

Houston Astros (-158, 11) at Colorado Rockies

8:40 p.m. ET

A couple of rookie starters take the ball at Coors Field tonight, as we get Colton Gordon for the Astros and Chase Dollander for the Rockies. It should be a good night for hitting in the Mile High City with warm temps and a helping wind, so we’ll see what kind of impact that has on the game.

Gordon will make the ninth start of his young career. He has a 3.98 ERA with a 3.51 xERA and a 4.22 FIP. He has allowed eight homers and a 16% HR/FB%, leading to a 3.47 xFIP, but this probably isn’t the type of park where that number improves. Nevertheless, Gordon has a 22% K% with a 2.9% BB%, so he doesn’t hurt himself with walks. Of those eight homers, six are solo shots and you can live with that. 

The Rockies are 18th in wRC+ against LHP over the last 30 days and have just a 7.5% BB% against a 24.3% K%. Gordon’s strong control numbers should work to his advantage here, even if he gives up a dinger or two.

The numbers would suggest that Dollander, who has a 6.06 ERA with a 5.07 xERA and a 5.83 FIP has been pitching better of late. Since May 12, he has a 4.72 ERA with a 5.27 FIP. But, five of those seven starts have come on the road. In 26.1 innings at home, Dollander has allowed a .306/.376/.550 slash with a .398 wOBA. Kyle Tucker has a .396 wOBA. Pete Alonso has a .395 wOBA. So, that’s a frame of reference for Dollander in his limited sample size at home.

The biggest thing to me is that the right-handed Dollander is exhibiting some mild reverse platoon splits, as righties have a wOBA that is 13 points higher. Righties at Coors Field own a .310/.375/.548 slash over 49 plate appearances. Small sample sizes again, but the Astros are really playing well right now and rank seventh in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days at .346.

Houston has one of the league’s best bullpens and, well, Colorado doesn’t. I think the run line juice is a small price to pay here for a bet that has been quite good over the course of the season.

Pick: Astros Run Line -1.5 (-104)