MLB Best Bets Today May 21
Fifteen games are on the MLB betting board for Tuesday, as we’ll see five games in the NL, five in the AL, and five interleague matchups on May 21. Four of the NL teams are road favorites at time of publish, but there are only two other road favorites across the card, including zero in the American League. It should be an interesting night of baseball for sure.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 21:
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (-166, 7.5)
7:05 p.m. ET
Bryan Woo and Clarke Schmidt are the listed hurlers here, as the Mariners and Yankees continue their series in the Bronx. Woo has made two starts since returning from the IL and pitched well in both of them, holding the A’s scoreless over 4.1 innings and holding the Royals to one run over 5.1 innings of work.
But, this is a big step up in class against the Yankees and it will also be Woo’s first road start. His two starts against the A’s and Royals came at T-Mobile Park, where he was able to pitch with the safety net of one of the best park factors in baseball. This will be a much different environment and one where the fly balls that he has allowed over two starts could be a lot more problematic.
The Yankees are second in baseball with a 122 wRC+, while the A’s and Royals rank down near the bottom third. The power prowess for the Yanks is definitely way more of a concern here for Woo and I think he’ll struggle a little bit in this matchup.
Meanwhile, Schmidt has been outstanding with a 2.49 ERA and a 3.45 FIP over his nine starts covering 50.2 innings. He hasn’t allowed a run in two straight outings and has racked up over a strikeout per inning on the year with solid peripherals across the board. Schmidt has only allowed a 33.3% Hard Hit% and a 7.8% Barrel%, so he’s really improved upon last season’s numbers in both categories.
The Mariners strike out at the highest rate in baseball by a good margin, so this should be a good matchup for Schmidt and his very high spin rates. I’m not sure I can say the same for Woo, especially against a Yankees team that has the only double-digit Barrel% in baseball.
Pick: Yankees 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-115)
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (-185, 7)
7:07 p.m. ET
A couple southpaw slingers go here, as it will be Garrett Crochet for the White Sox and Yusei Kikuchi for the Blue Jays. Crochet ran into a real rough patch in mid-April when he allowed 17 runs in the span of three starts. Since making some adjustments, he’s allowed just three runs over his last four starts covering a total of 22 innings of work.
Crochet has a 30/4 K/BB ratio in that span and has only allowed a 22.4% Hard Hit%. The White Sox have had a few rocky starts recently, but pitching coach Ethan Katz has done a masterful job improving this group on the fly, as they had the second-worst starting pitcher ERA in the league in March/April at 5.52, but have been much better this month at 4.38. Crochet has a lot to do with that, but he’s not the only one.
Righties have hit all eight homers against him, but he’s held them to a .210/.257/.401 slash in 179 plate appearances. Toronto has only hit 39 homers as a team and ranks 26th in that department, so it shouldn’t be a home run barrage against the left-hander in this one.
Kikuchi has been rather brilliant in his own right. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts, with the lone blemish coming against the Dodgers, who lead the league in wRC+. The White Sox do not.
Kikuchi has a 2.60 ERA with a 2.61 FIP and a 55/10 K/BB ratio over 52 innings of work. He’s generating a good rate of swings and misses in the zone and has done a fine job of working around any hard contact that he has allowed.
Yesterday’s blowout gave Toronto’s better relievers the chance to have a day off. I think Crochet will be able to effectively work pretty deep into this game and limit the exposure of the Chicago pen. I also love that he has a 33% K% against righties and Kikuchi checks in at 26.5% against righties. The best way to neutralize any platoon advantage is to strike dudes out and that’s what these two starters do.
Rather than lay the heavy juice on the Under 4.5 for the 1st 5, I think the full-game Under is a good buy.
Pick: White Sox/Blue Jays Under 7 (-108)
Baltimore Orioles (-148, 9) at St. Louis Cardinals
7:45 p.m. ET
The Cardinals are playing a bit better of late, but they draw a really tough customer in Kyle Bradish on Tuesday night. Bradish will be making his fourth start of the season and he’s allowed just four runs on 12 hits in 13.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 17 and walked six. Most notably, Bradish has allowed just a 22.2% Hard Hit% with only eight hard-hit balls in 36 batted ball events.
Bradish also has an average launch angle of -2.7 degrees, so teams are just beating the ball into the ground against him. He has a 57.1% GB% and well over a strikeout per inning. That is the kind of profile I would love to back on a regular basis and that is what Bradish presents here.
The Redbirds will send Lance Lynn to the hill. He’s allowed a 10.2% Barrel% this season and, while his Hard Hit% has improved in recent outings, he’s yielding a lot of fly balls and has given up 14 runs over his last three starts. The Orioles are second in Barrel% and third in Hard Hit%, so this profiles as a really awful matchup for Lynn given his penchant for giving up dingers.
The other thing with Lynn is that he’s struggled to get swings and misses in his last two starts against the Brewers and Angels. Milwaukee is mostly on Baltimore’s level, but the Angels are not. Both of those teams swing and miss more frequently as well.
I really like Bradish over Lynn here, especially with the composition of batted balls against Lynn and what the Orioles lineup does really well. It’ll be another 1st 5 run line pick for me today.
Pick: Orioles 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-110)
