MLB Best Bets Today October 1:
Happy MLB Playoffs Day!
We get all four Wild Card series today with all-day baseball from about 2:30 p.m. ET through roughly 11:30 p.m. or so. The pressure and intensity of the postseason are spectacular and I hope that all fan bases with teams in the playoffs are able to take it in. I’m happy my Guardians are in play, but they and the other teams with byes won’t start until Saturday.
Top MLB Resources:
I have series previews written up for all four series.
I will be writing up series previews for each round and then doing the daily best bets article seven days a week until the MLB season is done. I’ll write up something on every game, but won’t have a bet on every game.
SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 1:
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros (-142, 6)
2:32 p.m. ET (ABC)
The postseason starts in Houston, where the Astros face off against former manager A.J. Hinch and the Tigers. The host ‘Stros had gotten a lot of market support, but the line swung back a bit, even after Yordan Alvarez was announced in the starting lineup.
As I wrote about in that preview linked above, there is a huge discrepancy between these two teams in offense in general, but especially against left-handed pitching. Skubal is about as good of a lefty as you can find these days and he’s going to win the AL Cy Young, but this is easily the biggest start of his career and it comes against the sixth-best offense by wOBA against LHP. And Houston was without Kyle Tucker most of the year, but he’s back now.
I will say this – while it’s fair to punish the Tigers and Royals for having played more games against Chicago than other teams, Skubal only made two starts against the White Sox and allowed three runs on 11 hits in 11 innings, so it’s not like he padded his numbers against them. Don’t let that be a factor in your handicap of Skubal himself. Maybe the team as a whole, but not Skubal.
Valdez also had a sub-3 ERA and a 3.25 FIP, so he had a fine season. He is on extra rest here after last starting on September 24, so we’ll see if he has any negative impact from that.
No official bet from me here, especially with the hefty line move and the low total of 6. I lean towards Valdez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded at -115, but managers have a much quicker hook in the postseason.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles (-155, 6.5)
4:08 p.m ET (ESPN2)
As you would expect for a Game 1, we have a solid pitching matchup here between Cole Ragans and Corbin Burnes. The coming-out party for Ragans featured a bump of more than 90 innings in the regular season, but he posted a 3.14 ERA with a 3.27 xERA and a 2.99 FIP in his 186.1 frames. He was pretty much as good in the second half as he was in the first half as well. And even pitched to a 1.08 ERA over 25 innings in September, holding opponents to a .241 wOBA.
The Royals were actually able to avoid using Ragans over the final week of the season, so he, like Valdez in the first game, hasn’t pitched since the 24th. He fired six shutout against the Nationals in that game, but he did walk three batters. It was his fifth start out of the last seven with at least three walks. That has been the one thing I’ve noticed with Ragans. His control isn’t quite what it was earlier in the year. He’s still working deep into games, but he’s walked 26 of his last 234 batters for an 11.1% BB%. His BB% has gone from 8% to 10.1% between the first half and second half, as he had a 10.8% BB% in August and an 11.6% BB% in September.
So, that’s my position with the Orioles here. They only had a 7.9% BB% for the season that ranked 19th. However, their 9.1% BB% in the second half ranked sixth behind the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Mariners, and Yankees.
This is the biggest start of Ragans’ career. It will be on the road. Rain is around, so it’s going to be very humid and getting a grip on the ball in this literal and figurative environment may be tricky.
Pick: Cole Ragans Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+125)
As far as looking at Burnes in this matchup, I was kind of interested in Over 6.5 on the total. I do think Ragans winds up creating some problems for himself. Whether or not Baltimore can cash in remains to be seen, but the run-scoring opportunities may be there.
Burnes has only allowed five earned runs in his last six starts. He hasn’t been super sharp in some of them, but he’s been great in his last three outings, with two against the Tigers and one against a Yankees team trying to close out the AL East. They ultimately did because they jumped all over the O’s bullpen, but Burnes allowed a solo homer and another hit with nine strikeouts over five innings.
Ultimately, I didn’t get there with making this a play, but I could regret it I lean towards Over 6.5 at the extra juice that’s out there.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers (-148, 7.5)
5:32 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Mets got into Milwaukee at 11:18 p.m. CT, so they should have gotten a good enough night’s sleep to avoid a hangover that would knock us mere mortals on our backsides for a few days. New York partied it up pretty hard after yesterday’s doubleheader. The Brewers, meanwhile, have been positioning themselves for Game 1 for a while, as they were never getting a bye and locked up the division last week.
Luis Severino gets the Game 1 call after posting a 3.91 ERA with a 4.21 FIP. He posted a 4.11 ERA and a .327 wOBA against in the second half, where he allowed 11 homers in 72.1 innings. He allowed 12 HR in 109.2 innings in the first half. His K% jumped substantially in the second half, but the long ball was a major bugaboo.
The one upside for Sevy here is that he doesn’t walk a lot of guys. He had an 8.1% BB% in the first half and a 7.5% BB% in the second half. The Brewers have been among the league leaders in drawing walks all season long. The Mets had a 9.2% BB% with Francisco Alvarez behind the plate and a 9.9% BB% with anybody else, so that’s a slight positive with Alvy healthy. Severino, specifically, had a 7.8% BB%.
That said, Alvarez only threw out 14 of 80 base stealers. League average was 21% and Alvarez was at 18%. The Brewers run, run, and run some more. That’ll be a key to watch in this series.
Freddy Peralta has allowed 26 homers this season, but only four over his last seven starts. He got to 200 strikeouts and finished with a 3.68 ERA and a 4.16 FIP over 173.2 innings. He can get a little erratic and has walked at least two batters in every start since the All-Star Break, covering a string of 13 straight. The Brewers defense has bailed him out a lot this season with a 79.6% LOB% and a .278 BABIP against.
I leaned Mets for the series and lean Mets in Game 1 at the price, but the circumstances are tricky with the late arrival and with the Brewers having a well-rested bullpen, which is clearly the strength of the pitching staff. Ultimately, no play for me in this one.
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres (-180, 7.5)
8:38 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
At time of publish, the Braves had not yet named a starter. They may roll with a full-on bullpen day or rock with Max Fried on short rest. What we do know is that the Padres are rolling out Michael King for Game 1 as heavy favorites.
The Braves got into San Diego at about 2:30 a.m. ET last night after winning, celebrating, and taking a four-hour and 15-minute flight. As it is, this team has struggled with right-handed pitching all season long and I don’t think things will be any different today. The long travel and the dragging bats against a guy like King, who posted a 27.7% K% in his first season as a full-time starter make me very worried for Atlanta’s chances of pulling the upset.
Even though King had never experienced this workload before, he was better in the second half than the first. He shaved 32 points off of his wOBA against and more than a run off of his ERA. He also only allowed three homers in 62.2 innings of work after giving up 14 in 111 innings in the first half. He also slightly bumped his K% from 27.6% to 27.9%.
The Braves finished 17th in wOBA and 19th in wRC+ against righties. They also struck out nearly 24% of the time. The Padres bullpen has nothing but flamethrowers, too, so I think we get lots of swings and misses and minimal balls in play off the relievers as well.
So, I like King Over 5.5 Strikeouts at -115. I also like King “Yes To Record A Win” at +170 for a half-unit, with the concern being a high pitch count due to strikeouts and the third time through the order concerns from the manager. If the Braves Team Total Under 3.5 wasn’t so heavily juiced, I’d be interested in that as well. Whether it’s Fried on short rest or somebody else, San Diego is set up very well in this game.
Pick: Michael King (SD) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115); 0.5 Units on “Yes To Record A Win” at +170
