MLB Best Bets Today September 10:
Baseball takes back the spotlight for a couple of days before football gets back on the schedule. All 30 teams are in action on Tuesday night and every game is at night, so there is plenty of time to decide what to do with the card.
As I’ve talked about already, we’re seeing a lot of big favorites these days with more than five months worth of data and teams that have varying motivations. Side bettors will have to take a look at some unpalatable dogs or chalky favorites. The weather is also cooling down, making totals a little bit different to handicap. There are a lot of factors in play at all times of the season, but especially now, as line inflation is a real thing and teams may make some questionable pitching decisions to find out about younger arms or preserve players for the postseason.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for September 10:
Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates (-155, 8.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
It will probably be a friends and family kind of night in the Steel City this evening for Game 2 of the series between the Marlins and Pirates. Adam Oller gets the call for Miami against opener Carmen Mlodzinski for Pittsburgh. It will be a Johnny Wholestaff type of day for the Pirates, as recently-signed left-hander Joey Wentz is expected to bulk relieve.
Oller has made a couple of starts for the Marlins thus far, with two good ones and two bad ones. His bad starts have been against the Diamondbacks and Phillies. His good starts have been against the Cubs and Giants. I’d argue that the Pirates are a whole hell of a lot closer to the Cubs and Giants than they are to the Diamondbacks and Phillies.
Pittsburgh is 24th in wOBA here in the second half with a .300 mark. They rank 26th in wRC+ at 89. If we cut down to the last 30 days, they have a .295 wOBA and an 86 wRC+. Last 14 days? .303 and 91.
The Marlins offense has been better in every single one of those splits, as they’ve actually acquired some really interesting pieces. Mlodzinski has a 3.73 ERA with a 3.62 FIP over 41 innings, but this will be his first start since opening on June 21 against the Rays. He’s given up six runs on 13 hits in 11.2 innings in the second half.
Wentz has only faced five batters as a Pirate. He was waived by the Tigers at the end of August and has a 5.50 ERA with a 4.63 FIP in 55.2 innings of work. Those five batters he faced five days ago are the only batters he’s faced since August 29. I’m not expecting him to be very sharp.
Oller allowed five runs to the D-Backs over 4.2 innings and four runs to the Phillies over 5.1 innings. He had nine walks over those two starts. Against the two lesser lineups, he allowed one run on six hits in 11.2 innings. The Marlins pen is also very well-rested if Oller does get into trouble.
At this price, with a Pirates team that is 13-23 since the start of August, I think the Marlins are a live dog.
Pick: Marlins +130
San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners (-120, 7)
9:40 p.m. ET
It is great to see Yu Darvish back on the Padres roster. The veteran righty went 2.2 innings and 63 pitches six days ago against the Tigers and allowed three runs on four hits with four strikeouts and a couple walks. The month of September is just about getting Darvish to the point where he could potentially be a weapon in the postseason, whether that means coming out of the bullpen or being part of the rotation.
It wasn’t surprising to see a rocky start, as he didn’t make any minor league appearances prior to his return, aside from one start in mid-June before stepping away from the team again. I would anticipate he’s somewhere around 65 or 70 pitches again here, as the Padres have a well-rested relief corps and a lot of time to be patient. It’ll be interesting to see who follows Darvish, as long man Alek Jacob threw 44 pitches on Sunday, which means a lot of guys will likely throw an inning to finish this one out. I do love the San Diego pen, so I’ll try to avoid most exposure to them here.
George Kirby gets the start at home here for the Mariners. He’s struggled in the second half, but he’s made six of his nine starts on the road, where he is definitely a lesser pitcher.
In 70.1 home innings this season, Kirby has a 77/9 K/BB ratio and has only allowed three home runs. He’s given up 17 homers on the road in 96.2 innings. Opposing batters are batting .241/.274/.322 with a .262 wOBA against him at T-Mobile Park. He’s also neutralized both lefties and righties at home, holding them to a .264 and .260 wOBA, respectively.
The Kirby vs. Darvish matchup for the 1st 5 is priced at -135, but the Mariners -0.5 run line for the 1st 5 innings is +110.
The more this game becomes about the Padres vs. Mariners bullpen, the less I like Seattle in that situation. But, for the 1st 5, where I think Seattle’s patient lineup will push Darvish into some long innings, I like their chances of being ahead.
Pick: Mariners 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+110)
