MLB Best Bets Today September 24:
The final week of the regular season starts for a lot of MLB teams tonight. We’ve got six games in each league and three interleague games after we only had four games total on Monday. Clinches are possible tonight, as the Yankees clinch the AL East with a win or Orioles loss. The Orioles could also clinch a Wild Card spot with a win and a little help. The Astros clinch the AL West with a win over Seattle.
The Padres are the only NL team that can lock something up. A win will secure at least a Wild Card berth. They can also back their way into the playoffs with help from those chasing the Wild Card spots down. It’s just that time of the year, folks.
Top MLB Resources:
Something to keep in mind as the week rolls along is that playoff teams are going to be trying to set up their pitching rotations for the playoffs, so we may get some shortened starts from certain guys to line them up. That could have some serious player prop impact.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 24:
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians (-162, 8)
6:40 p.m. ET
The Ohio Cup will be on the line this week in Cleveland, as the Reds and Guardians square off. The teams split two games in Cincinnati earlier this season and the winner tonight will be in the driver’s seat for the coveted trophy. It is the only hardware that the Reds have a chance to win this season, as Cleveland has already locked up the AL Central and is now playing for one of the AL playoff byes.
Jakob Junis and Tanner Bibee are the listed hurlers for tonight. Junis joined the Reds just before the Trade Deadline and has been spectacular while getting stretched out to be a starter. He has a 2.75 ERA with a 2.97 FIP in his 36 innings of work, including a 1.14 ERA and a 2.45 FIP over his last 23.2 innings, which includes four starts. He’s allowed a total of two runs on seven hits in his four starts and he’s only issued one walk.
The Guardians are a well below average offense against sliders, which is Junis’ primary pitch. He has a 43.8% SL% over his last five appearances, which includes those four starts. Cleveland also hasn’t swung the bats well for a while now, as they’re missing Steven Kwan at the top of the order and the bottom of the order continues to have a lot of black holes. The Guardians are -16.5 batting runs against sliders, which ranks 19th.
Bibee has not enjoyed home cooking as much this season as in past seasons, but he has a .310 wOBA against and that doesn’t really correlate to a 4.39 ERA. He has a 3.51 FIP at home, so there are some positive regression signs in the profile and the Reds are not exactly a feared offensive team. Here in the second half, he has a .302 wOBA against over 61.2 innings of work.
There will be rain around for this one and I think the teams could be racing the rain late, depending on how the weather system shakes out. Nobody wants to play a doubleheader or resume a suspended game at this time of the year, so there could be a heightened sense of urgency to keep moving.
But, more so than that, these are two starters I trust and two bullpens that have performed well over the course of the season, especially Cleveland’s, which is the best in baseball.
Pick: Reds/Guardians Under 8 (-118)
St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 10) at Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
The Cardinals open up their final road trip of the season against the Rockies. It will be Michael McGreevy for St. Louis and Ryan Feltner for Colorado. McGreevy was St. Louis’s first-round pick in 2021 out of UC Santa Barbara and he posted a 4.02 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 150 innings at the Triple-A level. In one start and one relief effort at the MLB level, he’s allowed one run on seven hits with seven strikeouts against one walk.
McGreevy is a sinker/slider guy and a little bit more of a pitch-to-contact, ground ball type, but I think that plays well at Coors Field. At least that’s the type of pitcher that the Rockies keep trying to find. This will be McGreevy’s first foray into pitching at elevation, at least at the MLB level, so that is a concern, but not one that I’m all that worried about given his arsenal and the opposing lineup.
The Rockies have a 29.3% K% against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. McGreevy is a strike-thrower and the Rockies deal with a lot of strikes. So, I do like McGreevy Over 3.5 Strikeouts at +100.
Pick: Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
I’m also looking at the Cardinals on the money line here. I mentioned the things I like about McGreevy. I also like that the Cardinals have a tangible goal in mind, as they need to go at least 3-3 over the remaining six games to secure a winning record. To some teams, I don’t think it matters, but I feel like it has some meaning to an organization like the Cardinals.
Feltner has pitched well of late, but that’s more batted ball luck than anything else, as he’s not really racking up many strikeouts. He’s also had the benefit of facing some lackluster offenses throughout the second half. Feltner has a 5.76 ERA in 65.2 innings of work at home with a .310/.359/.471 slash and a .358 wOBA.
I also prefer St. Louis’s bullpen here, especially having had a day off after Ryan Helsley and Andrew Kittredge both worked Saturday and Sunday.
Pick: Cardinals -115
