MLB Best Bets Today June 18th
Greetings folks! Our usual baseball maestro Adam Burke is on vacation for a while, so while he is away I’ll be taking over daily MLB best bets.
Despite Adam’s absence, the usual schedule of articles will remain. I’ll have daily best bets Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up the standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays.
Top MLB Resources:
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the First 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB Best Bets today for June 18th:
Boston Red Sox (-123, 7) at Seattle Mariners
4:10 p.m. ET
Boston has played just two games since shipping Rafael Devers off San Francisco, but it is clear that this lineup misses the three-time All-Star.
The Red Sox eked out a win in the series opener against the Mariners, but they were shutout last night. In the two contests without Devers Boston hitters are a combined 6-for-58 (.103) at the plate with 22 strikeouts. This lineup won’t hit .103 all season long with a 34.4% strikeout rate, but it is clearly much weaker without Devers, and that likely continues today.
Luis Castillo is in solid form. He has a 2.72 ERA and a 3.67 FIP over his last nine starts. In 46 innings at home he has a 2.35 ERA and 3.87 FIP. There’s obviously some signs of regression there, but his floor should be raised against this lineup. Castillo isn’t the strikeout machine he once was in his career, but he still gets hitters to chase 28.4% of the time and his whiff rate of 25% is average. That bodes well in a matchup against a lineup with the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball (24%).
On the other side, Garrett Crochet continues to dazzle. He bounced back from an ugly start against the Yankees with 8 1/3 innings of dominance against the Bronx Bombers. He limited New York to just four hits and one earned while striking out seven. It was the eighth time in nine starts he had allowed two earned runs or fewer. It might be foolish to blindly trust players to achieve their baseline, but Crochet has earned that trust.
The market doesn’t expect much offense today. Most books have been bet down to 6.5 for the game total. Instead of dealing the bullpens or a potential third time through the lineup, let’s bank on a quick start for both pitchers today in Seattle.
Pick: Red Sox/Mariners F3 UNDER 1.5 (+115)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (-157, 8)
8:05 p.m. ET
Misiorowski made a brilliant debut against St. Louis last week. He pitched five shutout innings and did not allow a hit. However, the 23-year-old also walked four and not a single batted ball reached. If there was an offense that would make a young pitcher pay for such transgressions, it would be the Chicago Cubs.
Chicago is a great offensive team as a whole, but what it does best works against a pitcher like Misiorowski. The Cubs rank sixth in the league in fastball runs above average per 100 pitches. They are fourth in the same metric against sliders. Chicago is also a disciplined offense. It swings at pitchers outside of the zone just 26.8% of the time – the eighth-lowest rate – and the team is 10th in walk rate (9%). Against Misiorowski’s fastball/slider combo, as well as his lack of command – he walked 12.3% of the batters faced in AAA – the Cubs can generate some offense today.
There are some weather concerns for the game today. Kevin Roth at RotoGrinders believes this game will be delayed to start. The wind is also blowing in slightly, so scoring could be at a premium. But, I like this matchup too much and will lay the runline in the first five and trust Chicago to have a lead after five frames.
Pick: Cubs F5 -0.5 (+100)
