MLB schedule today has 4 games
There is a lot of debate as to whether or not MLB or NHL has the best playoffs. Every line rush and every shot have fans and viewers on the edge of their seats in hockey. Every pitch and every bat to ball seems to do the same in baseball. I don’t know the answer, but I do know I miss the stress of having years taken off of my life watching my Guardians in the postseason. If your team is in the playoffs, whether it’s basically an annual thing or only happens once in a while, don’t ever take it for granted.
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We had three Unders and one Over on opening night of the MLB playoffs. Two road teams won and two home teams won. We had some drama, but we didn’t have a ton of it. It will be interesting to see if Night 2 goes differently, especially with four teams staring down the barrel at the end of their seasons.
Rather than re-write what I wrote yesterday, I’m just going to copy and paste my tips from yesterday’s article. I’ll do that again one more time here in the Wild Card Round, unless they all end in sweeps.
Look to live bet – Betting pre-game is a little more difficult in my opinion during the postseason. The massive swings and huge plate appearances in the middle innings often lead to good live betting spots. Managers are quick on the trigger finger with pulling starters and will sometimes roll with high-leverage relievers early in big spots. That can create live betting opportunities on or against a team.
My favorite spot to look for is a starter turning the lineup over for the third time in a tight game. It is the highest-stress environment you can find at the end of a long regular season and starting pitchers will tire out earlier than normal. If a manager isn’t fast enough with the hook, that’s where I like to strike.
Mind the different run environment – In the MLB Playoffs, we typically see a higher share of runs being scored via the home run than we do during the regular season. In general, the pitching is collectively better for the teams that were good enough to make the playoffs. Opportunities to manufacture runs aren’t as commonplace, as hits are usually limited. Home runs are the name of the game and the team that hits more of them often comes out on top. Note how three games have totals of 7.5 today and another has an 8. Expect to see some 6.5s and even 6s as the postseason rolls along.
Handicap the managers – Some guys will be way more skilled at this playoff environment than others. They’ll have a better pulse for the game and will put aside feelings for math. They’ll make better decisions with leveraging relievers and getting starters out of the game.
Bullpen usage is critical – Knowing who is available and who isn’t is an enormous part of the equation in the playoffs. Guys will be asked for multiple innings that typically don’t go more than three outs. You’ll also see guys work with limited rest, especially here in the Wild Card Round, where there are no off days.
Use series prices as starting points – Sometimes you can take a series price before everything begins and use that as a starting point for a bet. For example, if you like an underdog to win Game 1, take the series price and look to either buy back on the other side at a better number or hold the good price that you’ve gotten. Pitching rotations can have a huge impact on the odds, but you can set yourself up with some good positions by attacking those markets.
Lastly, I’ll be doing series previews for the ALDS and NLDS whenever those are decided. If we don’t have any games, I won’t do the daily best bets article, but I will still do the podcast to shed some light on any market moves and handicap what I think about the upcoming series/games.
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Here are some thoughts on the October 4 card (odds from DraftKings):
(odds as of 8:10 a.m. PT)
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-148, 8)
Florida native Nathan Eovaldi and Texas native Zach Eflin are the listed starters for this one, as the Rays face the prospects of elimination following a 4-0 loss in Game 1. The Rays had a runner on third in both the second and third innings, but tried an ill-fated squeeze in the second and popped out to end the third. Those were the only chances they got against Jordan Montgomery, whose spectacular regular season and strong playoff start have definitely earned him some more bread in free agency.
As we look at Game 2, this is where things could get dicey for the Rangers. Montgomery is an unquestioned front-line starter, but without Trade Deadline acquisition Max Scherzer, this rotation is rather pedestrian moving forward. Eovaldi came back from injury on September 5 and allowed 21 runs on 26 hits in 20.1 innings pitched. He allowed 12 runs on 11 hits, including four homers, over his last two starts against the Mariners. Montgomery’s extended start yesterday gives manager Bruce Bochy the luxury of going to the bullpen early if need be, but the Rangers pen has struggled and tomorrow could feature a winner-take-all game.
I’m not sure if the Rays would rather have Andrew Heaney or Dane Dunning start a potential Game 3, but that’s a decision that they might have to make if Eovaldi struggles. If nothing else, he hasn’t thrown more than five innings or 86 pitches since coming back, so I think he’ll be on a short leash anyway.
Eovaldi has allowed a 53.2% Hard Hit% and a 12.9% Barrel% in his six starts since coming back, so that’s a lot of poor command and hard contact, especially with a 65.8% HH% in his last three starts.
Eflin comes in with a 3.50 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and just 24 walks in his 177.2 innings of work. The season that he has had has been a saving grace for the Rays in light of all of their injury issues. Eflin has been great at home and on the road, but he’s held opposing batters to a .238/.266/.377 slash with a .276 wOBA in 103.2 innings at The Trop this season. Unlike Eovaldi, who has allowed a lot of hard-hit contact, Eflin comes with a 34.9% Hard Hit%.
He does, however, also have a 9% Barrel%, which is north of the league average of 8.2%. As a guy who throws a ton of strikes with a 49.8% GB%, I’ll live with the occasional barrel and won’t think any less of him for it.
Some money hit the board on the Rangers as I was writing and I’m not entirely sure why. With Eovaldi, the Rangers are at much greater risk of having their biggest weakness exposed and that has been the bullpen. This is a good, safe environment for Eflin where he has pitched well and I don’t think the Rays will go quietly into the night. I like them here at this price.
Pick: Rays -148
Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins (-142, 8)
It would seem that Chris Bassit’s home/road splits were enough to scare the Blue Jays away from using him as a starter, as they’ll instead turn to former Twin Jose Berrios in this elimination game. This was a tight, low-scoring affair yesterday, as Royce Lewis hit two early homers for the Twins and the pitchers did the rest.
Jordan Hicks had a rough inning in relief and threw 25 pitches, but he is the only reliever who appears to be a little bit compromised today, so everybody should be good to go.
Outside of the two Lewis homers, the Twins were 3-for-29 with 11 strikeouts. Whether they advance or not here, the strikeout is such a huge issue for the Twins moving forward. They’re a team that didn’t hit for a high batting average as a result and will be reliant on the long ball. They were third with 233 of them during the regular season, so it is clearly an arrow in their quiver, but still bears watching as we go along. The Jays, meanwhile, only struck out seven times in their 33 at bats, but failed to mount many offensive rallies.
Berrios had a 23.5% K% during the regular season, which is still above league average, but not that far. He finished with a 3.65 ERA, 4.51 xERA, and a 3.99 FIP in his 189.2 innings of work. He only allowed 25 homers, which was a decent number for him after allowing 29 in 172 innings last season. That said, he did allow 12 in 81.2 innings in the second half compared to 13 in 108 innings in the first half.
He finished the regular season with a 10.9% SwStr%, which was his best mark since 2020 as a member of the Minnesota roster. He gets ahead in counts, which is good, but I’d expect to see the Twins attack fastballs aggressively with Berrios. His slurve and changeup were his two best pitchers, so the Twins will likely try to swing early in counts to keep him from using those weapons. Berrios can be a BABIP-dependent guy, but he has had his best season by Hard Hit% since 2019 and his best by Barrel% since 2020.
On the Minnesota side, Sonny Gray had a magnificent season with a 2.79 ERA, 3.66 xERA, and a 2.83 FIP. He only allowed eight homers in 184 innings and had 183 strikeouts against 55 walks. Remember that a large part of the playoff run environment is hitting the long ball and Gray was the best starting pitcher in baseball at avoiding those mistakes. Over 32 starts, he allowed more than three runs just three times, with one right before the All-Star Break and one right after on eight days rest.
Gray mixes his pitches a lot and has been very effective in throwing more of a “kitchen sink” arsenal. Per Statcast, he has not thrown a single pitch more than 27.2% of the time. Righties only posted a .220/.277/.303 slash with a .258 wOBA against him this season and he limited the opposition to a .264 wOBA with a 2.67 ERA at Target Field. As great as his first half was with a 2.89 ERA and a .281 wOBA against, he was even better in the second half with a 2.67 ERA and a .257 wOBA.
Berrios, meanwhile, wasn’t as sharp in the second half and also didn’t have quite as good of numbers on the road, being +4 in BA, +10 in OBP, and +13 in SLG.
That being said, while I think there’s maybe some line value in the Twins in the -130 range, which you can get here locally, the DraftKings inflated number at -142 is a little bigger of a pill to swallow. Minnesota is a hard team to back because of the high probability of strikeouts and the lower probability of manufacturing runs without hitting homers.
The wind is blowing out to dead center today on a sunny day with temps in the 60s. That probably helps the Twins more than the Blue Jays, especially given the pitching matchup. I lean with Minnesota, but I’m not quite feeling strongly enough about it to jump in.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers (-130, 7.5)
The Brewers did not play well yesterday and my 2-0 series ticket went up in flames, as Milwaukee failed to score after Brandon Pfaadt left the game and ultimately dropped a 6-3 decision. The ball was really carrying at American Family Field, as four homers were hit in the game to account for six of the nine runs. I’ll be curious to see if that’s the case today.
I understand the thought process from Craig Counsell to keep it a one-run game, but the fact that Devin Williams struggled with three walks and two runs allowed while throwing 31 pitches is a tough thing to think about today. I’m a bigger proponent than most of using your best relievers in hopes of staving off those insurance runs, but Williams struggled and now he’s compromised for today’s game.
The game will begin with Zac Gallen and Freddy Peralta, as the Brewers deploy Peralta in place of Brandon Woodruff, who suffered a shoulder injury prior to the start of the series. I said this in my series preview, but Peralta was ninth in fWAR among qualified starters in the second half with a 2.81 ERA and a 2.92 FIP over his 13 starts covering 73.2 innings of work. The only pitchers better than him were Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Spencer Strider, Cole Ragans, Sonny Gray, Zack Wheeler, Yusei Kikuchi, and Grayson Rodriguez. That is some pretty elite company.
For the season, Peralta wound up with a 3.86 ERA, 3.33 xERA and a 3.85 FIP. The long ball has been a bugaboo with 26 of them allowed, which drove up his FIP a bit. But, Peralta also has 210 strikeouts in 165.2 innings of work, so he’s been able to limit baserunners to cut down on the damage that the homers did provide.
What we have to try and figure out here is how much of the strikeouts show up against an Arizona lineup that graded well in strikeout avoidance during the season. The Diamondbacks struck out 10 times yesterday, but also drew seven walks. The shocker to me was hitting three home runs. They’re very adept at putting balls in play, but they typically haven’t been a group to hit for a lot of power. In some respects, that cancels out the good and the bad of Peralta.
His second-half Hard Hit% was 36% and his Barrel% was 7.3%, so those are both excellent numbers. The Brewers are a team that has gotten to this point with defense – both in the field and behind the plate with catcher framing metrics. They have had a below average offense all season, so they need to be able to win close games. We’ll see if Peralta and the bullpen can provide that today.
On the Arizona side, things could have gone a little bit better yesterday if Pfaadt had been able to go at least five innings, but they won the game that they had to have to set up Gallen today and Merrill Kelly tomorrow if need be. I am not nearly as much of a Gallen guy as most. He had a 3.47 ERA with a 4.16 xERA and a 4.27 FIP over 210 innings during the regular season. However, he allowed a 46% Hard Hit% and a 9.2% Barrel%. Remember that league average for HH% is 39.2%, so he allowed a ton of hard contact. That was especially true of the second half with a 49.4% Hard Hit% and a 10% Barrel%.
Over his final seven starts, Gallen had a 4.93 ERA with a 4.23 FIP, as some of that hard contact came to the forefront. So, I am way more skeptical of Gallen’s profile. Also, he had a 2.47 ERA at home with a .262 wOBA against compared to a 4.42 ERA with a .313 wOBA against on the road. He had a 2.33 FIP at home and a 4.15 FIP on the road. His K% was nearly 8% lower away from home. Interestingly, Kelly had some big home/road splits as well, which we’ll see if I need to talk about for tomorrow or for Game 1 on Saturday.
I’m not sure what happens in the late innings here, but one of the levers for my Brewers 2-0 bet was because I thought there would be equity in fading Gallen. I’m going to follow through on that and take Brewers 1st 5 here. I’m not sure what happens in the late innings, but I like Peralta in a short burst and happen to think that Gallen is overrated. I will say, I am a little bit surprised this line isn’t lower on Milwaukee, as it is only a five-cent discount off of the full-game line at DK, but I still think it’s worthwhile. Shop around here as well. I think you could maybe wait a little here for a better number, as Gallen will probably be valued differently by the market than I value him.
Pick: Brewers 1st 5 (-125)
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (-162, 8)
Game 1 played out pretty much how I expected it to. Zack Wheeler was going to shove and Jesus Luzardo was going to struggle and the Phillies would take down the game. We’ve got a similar line in this one with Braxton Garrett and Aaron Nola. To be honest, I don’t think it warrants a similar line. I think there’s some number equity on the Miami side, but I am not in a hurry to back the Fish.
The Phillies had 14 AB with RISP compared to seven for Miami yesterday. They didn’t hit any homers, but did bang out four doubles. Their offensive profile is just so much more impressive than what Miami brings to the table. As I talked about yesterday on Sharp Money, Miami needs to win games 3-2, 4-2, 4-3, which is a lot tougher for them on the road. They did hold Philly to four runs, but Philly held themselves to four runs by not getting enough big hits. Opportunities were fewer and farther between for the Marlins and that’s about what I expected.
Nola didn’t have the greatest season. He had a 4.46 ERA with a 3.74 xERA and a 4.03 FIP. His main issue was stranding runners, as he posted a 66.4% LOB%. Nola allowed 32 home runs, which was the most of his career, and struggled badly the second time through the order. If Miami had more power, I would find them very live in this game, but the line also wouldn’t be where it is.
Nola allowed 14 HR the first time through the order, so there is a good chance that he gives up an early run and maybe we can get the Phillies at a better live price. I do really like the depth of their bullpen and also trust their offense to hit the team back into games.
Garrett had a good season with a 3.66 ERA, 4.51 xERA, and a 3.68 FIP. The high xERA is a byproduct of allowing a lot of hard contact, but Garrett has a 49.1% GB% and you deal with hard contact when it’s on the ground. You can’t hit a homer on a ground ball. Also, unlike Luzardo, Garrett was shockingly better on the road, where he had a 2.85 ERA and a .275 wOBA against compared to a 4.46 ERA and a .337 wOBA against.
Just like yesterday, the Marlins were a bottom-10 offense all season against righties and the Phillies were a good offense against lefties, including a borderline top-five mark in the second half.
To me, the play here is indeed waiting to see if you can get a better live price on the Phillies. If that means a small comeback, then that’s fine. I like their bullpen and I like their offense like I mentioned, so even if they trail early, I think they’re more than capable of coming out ahead in the end anyway.
I can’t say I have a target number in mind. It’s all dependent on how the game flow is going and how Nola looks. Will Rob Thomson pull the plug sooner rather than later if need be? I don’t know that ahead of time, especially with what I presume is Ranger Suarez going tomorrow if Game 3 is required.
So, that’s my approach. Wait and look for a price you feel is good on the Phillies and attack. If they score first and one doesn’t show up, it is what it is. Don’t force anything.
Look to live bet the Phillies
