MLB Best Bets Today October 24

The long wait is over, as Game 1 of the World Series is tonight between the Dodgers and Blue Jays. It will be Blake Snell and Trey Yesavage, as the Dodgers are big series favorites and also Game 1 favorites. They haven’t played since last Friday after sweeping the Brewers with just one run allowed in each of those NLCS games.

The Blue Jays represent a stiffer test for the Dodgers pitching staff and this has the makings of a very good series, despite the odds saying otherwise. I already wrote up my series thoughts with a World Series Preview, World Series MVP breakdown, and some World Series player prop strategies.

Now, let’s look at Game 1 and see if there are any good wagers to make tonight.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for October 24:

Dodgers (-158, 7.5) vs. Blue Jays

8:00 p.m. ET

Regardless of how tonight or any future starts in this series go for Trey Yesavage, his story is remarkable. The 22-year-old started this season in A-ball as a 2024 MLB Draft pick out of East Carolina. Toronto opted not to have him pitch in pro ball after his final season and he started fresh this season. After carving up minor leaguers at every level, Yesavage made his MLB debut on September 15. And now he’s starting Game 1 of the World Series. And he’ll still be eligible for the AL Rookie of the Year next year.

In three regular season starts vs. the Rays (x2) and Royals, Yesavage allowed five runs on 13 hits with 16 strikeouts against seven walks. His first playoff start was the stuff of legend, as he threw 5.1 no-hit innings against the Yankees with 11 strikeouts. His two starts against the Mariners were less impressive with seven runs allowed on 10 hits with 11 strikeouts against six walks in 9.2 innings, but he did win a pivotal Game 6 to keep the series alive and then Toronto went on to win.

Obviously this is a different kind of animal against a Dodgers lineup where there are seemingly no weaknesses. His splitter could be a tremendous weapon against LA’s lefties. Left-handed batters have hit just .136/.238/.216 against him in 232 plate appearances across all five levels. In the three regular season starts, they hit .161/.257/.194 in 35 plate appearances. In the postseason, lefties are batting .171/.216/.257 in 37 PA. So, we’ll see if he can neutralize Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, which would be a big help in shutting down this potent lineup.

The 32-year-old Snell is about as fresh as he’s ever been in the playoffs, as he only threw 61.1 innings over 11 starts in the regular season. Here in the postseason, he’s worked 21 innings over three starts with just two runs allowed on six hits and a 28/5 K/BB ratio out of 72 batters faced. Snell now owns a 2.58 ERA with a 3.12 FIP in 69.2 career postseason innings.

I’m not sure if it matters or not, but relievers Gabe Speier and Caleb Ferguson are the only lefties that the Blue Jays have seen since Carlos Rodon and Tim Hill in Game 3 of the ALDS back on October 7. With all of the present-day technology and deeply detailed info on every player, it may not be a factor at all. Toronto hit lefties well during the regular season. They only have 64 PA against LHP this month, batting .345/.397/.569.

Snell is a tough one to face. That said, I wrote about this in my player props section how Snell became an extreme ground ball guy this season. He allowed 51 hits in 61.1 innings. He allowed 65 hits last season in 104 innings and just 115 hits in 180 innings in 2023. His .224 BA against was his highest in a non-COVID year since 2019. Because the Blue Jays don’t strike out or walk a lot, and the Rogers Centre carpet plays faster than a normal infield, that could be a factor in this start.

From a side standpoint, I think the line is fair and I believe the total is set pretty accurately, too, though I’d lean Over as opposed to Under.

I’ll follow through on research and my handicapping of Snell and go with Over 4.5 Hits Allowed at +130. We’re likely to see a lot more contact and a lot more balls in play off of Snell than normal. Similarly, I’ll go with Trey Yesavage Over 2.5 Walks Allowed at +135. The Dodgers are a much more disciplined lineup than both the Yankees and Mariners. Yesavage has walked at least three batters in three of his six career starts and this will be the best all-around lineup he has faced in what is a very nervy start to open up the World Series.

Picks: Blake Snell (LAD) Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+130); Trey Yesavage (TOR) Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+135)