MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
Because of the rigorous football work calendar I keep each fall, it is difficult to keep up with regularly updating the MLB Bullpen Systems articles late in the baseball season. However, I try to keep up the series of articles at least every two weeks. I’m going to keep this one a little shorter than usual because I am inundated with college football Week 1 work, but I owe it to my loyal baseball bettors to keep them up to speed. In summary, over the last couple of weeks, there was a huge splash made either way, as the EASIEST system gave back over 7 units, but some of the correlation and streak systems produced big numbers. Hopefully you’ve been keeping up with the daily MLB Analytics Reports, because AJ is posting the daily qualifying teams and logging the records as usual. Keep in mind, with just a month left in the regular season and the playoffs coming fast, this is the time of year when bullpens are more important than ever.
If you recall, a couple of weeks ago in the last MLB Bullpen Systems update, I was oozing with excitement about the change several prominent sportsbooks recently made by going back to dime (or sometimes even better) lines for MLB action. With baseball being such a high-volume sport with up to 15 games available per day, this is a massive boon for bettors, particularly those like me who rely on systematic data that produces many plays per day. I’m happy to say the change appears to be permanent. That has continued to be a major baseball betting highlight for me since just before the All-Star break. Of course, almost all of my go-to bullpen systems have thrived in that time too, so it’s been a really strong eight-week surge in the numbers I am about to present. With that said, before I present all of the updated system numbers, here are some of the best highlights from the last two weeks:
Correlation system #3, the one indicating to back teams with elite starters AND bullpens performed remarkably over the last two weeks, going 26-12 for +9.48 units. Although this one has been a little slower than usual this season, it is based in a solid foundation that the combination of great starting and relief pitching is worth investing in.
A huge fade system angle, Correlation system #4, which is essentially the opposite of #3, suggesting to go against teams with poor starting pitching AND relief pitching in any given game also had a big two-week stretch. In fact, those teams are were almost automatic fades, going 5-22 for -15.34 units. That two-week ROI is a blistering -56.8%. Those bettors playing against them won handsomely.
Better SM rated bullpen teams on three-game winning streaks continued to surge, going 19-11 for +6.2 units over the last two weeks. Perhaps you’ve noticed, but there’s been far more lengthy winning streaks from good bullpen teams since the All-Star break than there was prior.
Better SM rated bullpen teams also snuffed out any longer losing streaks too over the past couple of weeks. Those on three-game losing skids went 11-5 for +6.41 units, bringing back a nice ROI for backers.
It has been a HUGE run out of the All-Star Break for almost every one of the systems we provide for you on a daily basis in our MLB Analytics Reports. I trust that if you are reading this piece, you are also utilizing those daily gold mines to your advantage.
The last thing I wanted to point out is some observations I have made regarding bullpens over the last couple of weeks.
These past two weeks were a good run for bullpens overall as the average team gained about 1.4 points on my ratings. Some of the best teams of late have included Cleveland, Milwaukee, Baltimore, and Kansas City. The three former teams are right in the thick of the playoff picture, so their strong relief performances have bolstered their chances. The Royals, meanwhile, are a very interesting case in that they seemed dead in the water, both overall and from a bullpen perspective, but they managed to rally for nine straight wins. During that torrid stretch, the bullpen looked more like the one that former Manager Ned Yost used to famously utilize about a decade ago in the Royals’ recent heyday. At the same time, teams like the Cardinals and Mariners have fallen out of contention as their bullpens have failed them. The same can be said for the Cubs’ divisional title hopes, as Manager Craig Counsell’s relief corps have been as inconsistent as any in the league recently, and have blown several save opportunities in recent weeks. Chicago hosts the #1 bullpen-rated Brewers in what could be a last-gasp type of series to start the week.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through nearly 140 games of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The EASIEST way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20, went 1,138-1,004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. For ’26, this EASY system has not thrived like usual, and after a big run out of the break, it gave back 7.86 units over the last two weeks. The season-long record is 935-832 in all for -68.45 units, and an ROI of -3.9%.
This percentage ROI loss still outperforms the average bettor loss for playing every game, which for this season to date is about -7.2%. That is an “advantage” of almost 3.5% simply by taking the team with a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating every game. Furthermore, we are winning 52.9% of our games. That said, betting almost every game is a tough strategy regardless, even with the new dime lines factored in. It’s usually the case that EASIEST isn’t always best, although the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for bigger edges, and at this point I can’t honestly advise playing every game on the easiest system. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For ’26, these teams are 60-51 for -7.45 units for an ROI of -6.7%.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 81-123 for -45.74 units and an ROI of -22.4%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but have been roaring back recently, including 26-12 for +9.48 units over the last two weeks. For the season, they are 256-191 start for -17.95 units and an ROI of -4.0%. This one has been a disappointment overall, but there’s still a month of games left.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 134-201 start for -27.29 units (-8.2% ROI) after losing about 37 units over the 2-1/2 months. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory, and it continues to fall fast!
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are just over the profitability line at 200-159 for +1.55 units.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 84-46 for -17.7 units, ROI -13.6%!
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 43-21 but for -8.8 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 35-22 start for -15.73 units, and an ROI of -27.6%!
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 280-339 for -22.59 units, and comes off a rough two-week stretch, giving back over 12 units.
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 234-157 for +48.27 units, an ROI of +12.3%.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 173-197 start for -37.84 units (ROI -10.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 74-97 for -23.2 units and a solid ROI of -13.6%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 143-165 for -0.62 units. However, it has lost -13.92 units over the last two months.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It is on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and, with one month left, owns a record of 171-139 for -13.7 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 107-97 for -9.81 units. This angle also has gained solid momentum since the break, however, including 11-5 for +6.41 units over the last two weeks.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 8/30)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. BOSTON: 3.11
2. NY YANKEES: 3.12
3. MILWAUKEE: 3.27
4. ATLANTA: 3.41
5. SAN DIEGO: 3.49
6. NY METS: 3.71
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 5.59
29. KANSAS CITY: 5.07
28. WASHINGTON: 4.91
27. MINNESOTA: 4.86
26. COLORADO: 4.77
25. CINCINNATI: 4.74
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. BOSTON: 1.16
2. NY YANKEES: 1.19
3. TAMPA BAY: 1.2
4. ATLANTA: 1.21
5. MILWAUKEE: 1.23
6. MIAMI: 1.23
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.51
29. MINNESOTA: 1.51
28. ATHLETICS: 1.5
27. COLORADO: 1.48
26. WASHINGTON: 1.45
25. CINCINNATI: 1.45
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.2
2. LA ANGELS: 9.89
3. PHILADELPHIA: 9.88
4. LA DODGERS: 9.74
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.67
6. SAN DIEGO: 9.25
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. KANSAS CITY: 7.43
29. WASHINGTON: 7.53
28. COLORADO: 7.54
27. ARIZONA: 7.64
26. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.81
25. TEXAS: 7.88
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
1. CLEVELAND: 0.87
2. TAMPA BAY: 0.92
3. PHILADELPHIA: 0.98
4. PITTSBURGH: 0.99
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.09
6. MILWAUKEE: 1.11
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
30. MINNESOTA: 1.87
29. SEATTLE: 1.74
28. TEXAS: 1.7
27. WASHINGTON: 1.67
26. TORONTO: 1.65
25. BOSTON: 1.63
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, momentum, and even manager strength of usage.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday (8/17):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. CLEVELAND: +18 points
2. BALTIMORE: +12
2. MILWAUKEE: +12
4. KANSAS CITY: +10
5. ATLANTA: +9
6. PITTSBURGH: +8
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. ST LOUIS: -11 points
2. LA ANGELS: -9
3. SEATTLE: -7
4. TAMPA BAY: -6
4. HOUSTON: -6
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 8/31)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. MILWAUKEE: 38
2. BOSTON: 33
3. NY YANKEES: 29
4. SAN DIEGO: 28
5. TAMPA BAY: 21
6. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 20
7. ATLANTA: 19
8. HOUSTON: 18
9. CLEVELAND: 17
10. BALTIMORE: 15
11. NY METS: 15
12. LA DODGERS: 13
13. PITTSBURGH: 12
14. TORONTO: 11
15. MIAMI: 6
16. DETROIT: 6
17. ARIZONA: 5
18. PHILADELPHIA: 3
19. CHICAGO CUBS: 3
20. LA ANGELS: 1
21. SAN FRANCISCO: 0
22. MINNESOTA: -2
23. SEATTLE: -7
24. COLORADO: -11
25. TEXAS: -12
26. KANSAS CITY: -12
27. WASHINGTON: -12
28. CINCINNATI: -16
29. ST LOUIS: -17
30. ATHLETICS: -25
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
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