MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
This week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update isn’t good for the easiest system, but instead, most of the other drill-down systems that I have encouraged you to follow religiously put in good weeks. That is rare, as the easiest angle typically serves as a barometer for whether or not most of the other more detailed systems will fare. However, as I’ve come to notice this season, there are certain teams that come up as easy angle plays each day, and I cringe, because these teams share one common trait this season…they can’t hit. No matter how good their bullpens are, it hasn’t seemed to matter much, as once they get behind, they have a difficult time catching up. I’ll share more detailed evidence of that, plus the highlights from last week’s bullpen systems in this update for June 22nd, 2026.
I’ve detailed CORELATION SYSTEM #2 quite often this season for its reliability, so hopefully you’ve picked up on it a long time ago. If not, what are you waiting for? This angle suggests that good bullpens aren’t all that valuable when the starting pitcher is poor. They simply can’t make up for the large deficits they inherit. Fading such teams has been a bankroll builder in 2026 as they are -35.59 units in the hole after going after another negative week. Our other two fade correlation angles are also following their usual tendencies.
One of the other highlights this past week is how our angles focused on fading overpriced teams continued to rake. The idea is that if teams are over -190 favorites, they have to have a nice starting pitcher edge (20 or more SM power rating points) and/or be winning >=19% of their games when compared to the opponent. Well, in large part thanks to the always overpriced Dodgers, who lost consecutive games to Baltimore, these angles had big weeks.
The other systems I would encourage you to keep an eye on are the streak angles, as after slow starts, most of them are finally trending in the right direction. I have found that most of these bullpen systems have picked up strength over the course of the season the last few years, so this year’s behavior is nothing new. Hopefully, what we are seeing lately is the start of things for the next few months.
As we approach the halfway point of the 2026 regular season for most teams this week, the last thing I wanted to discuss for this week’s update is the subject of how poor offenses are the archenemy of bullpen edge wagering. Unfortunately, there are a number of teams this season that have relied heavily on their strong bullpens to make up for a lack of offense. Some were reasonably expected, others have proven a complete shock.
In any case, there are currently nine teams in MLB scoring less than 4.2 runs per game. Six of these teams are among the eight biggest loss leaders in baseball right now for our easiest angle. In other words, these teams have lost the most for our system when having a bullpen edge in a game. Collectively, they are 130-163 for -67.4 units and a ROI of -23%. You’ll see below that the easiest angle is currently -66.71 units overall. Had we avoided the six teams at the bottom of the list below, we would be in the black for the season!
What’s the moral of this story…perhaps take the teams with RPG stats noted below with a grain of salt when you’re considering backing them solely because they have a better bullpen than their opponent. In any case, here is a list of the 30 MLB teams and their won-lost records when they have been the qualifier of the EASIEST angle this season.
Team, W-L Record, Units, ROI
1. TAMPA BAY: 23-12 +8.9 units – ROI: +25.4%
2. ATLANTA: 43-25 +8.46 units – ROI: +12.4%
3. MILWAUKEE: 36-22 +7.91 units – ROI: +13.6%
4. CLEVELAND: 35-29 +4.6 units – ROI: +7.2%
5. MIAMI: 23-19 +2.68 units – ROI: +6.4%
6. NY YANKEES: 27-16 +2.58 units – ROI: +6.0%
7. COLORADO: 2-1 +1.7 units – ROI: +56.7%
8. ST LOUIS: 8-6 +1.55 units – ROI: +11.1%
9. BALTIMORE: 14-10 +1.16 units – ROI: +4.8%
10. CINCINNATI: 17-14 +0.73 units – ROI: +2.4%
11. WASHINGTON: 1-1 -0.02 units – ROI: -1.0%
12. PITTSBURGH: 19-16 -0.78 units – ROI: -2.2%
13. CHICAGO CUBS: 27-23 -1.28 units – ROI: -2.6%
14. SAN DIEGO: 36-35 -1.56 units – ROI: -2.2%
15. ATHLETICS: 13-12 -1.59 units – ROI: -6.4%
16. MINNESOTA: 4-6 -2.83 units – ROI: -28.3%
17. PHILADELPHIA: 14-12 -3.13 units – ROI: -12.0%
18. CHI WHITE SOX: 3-6 -3.35 units – ROI: -37.2%
19. ARIZONA: 10-10 -3.41 units – ROI: -17.1%
20. LA ANGELS: 5-9 -4.13 units – ROI: -29.5%
21. LA DODGERS: 31-20 -5.04 units – ROI: -9.9%
22. TORONTO: 16-16 -5.96 units – ROI: -18.6%
23. SEATTLE: 30-28 -6.26 units – ROI: -10.8% (4.13 RPG)
24. KANSAS CITY: 8-13 -7.33 units – ROI: -34.9%
25. HOUSTON: 5-9 -7.33 units – ROI: -52.4%
26. TEXAS: 27-31 -9.22 units – ROI: -15.9% (4.01 RPG)
27. DETROIT: 18-24 -9.42 units – ROI: -22.4% (4.08 RPG)
28. SAN FRANCISCO: 10-19 -10.94 units – ROI: -37.7% (4.12 RPG)
29. NY METS: 26-31 -13.85 units – ROI: -24.3% (4.04 RPG)
30. BOSTON: 19-30 -17.72 units – ROI: -36.2% (3.92 RPG)
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first 2+ months of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20, went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and a ROI of 0%. For 2026, this easy system is off to a slower start this season, 500-463 in all for -66.71 units, and an ROI of -6.9%.
This percentage ROI loss still greatly outperforms the average bettor’s loss for playing every game. However, it does go to prove how crucial it is to get the best lines you can for every wager you make. We are winning 51.9% of our games, but betting almost every game is a tough strategy regardless. It’s usually the case that EASIEST isn’t always BEST, although the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. If you consider that all of the lines I use for this analysis average out to about an 15% average loss per game, this easiest system is still providing users with an advantage of over 8%. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early ‘26 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 23-21 for –5.72 units (ROI -13%).
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 41-74 for -35.59 units and a ROI of -30.9%!
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents a ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 152-112 start for -9.33 units and a ROI of -3.5%.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in ‘25. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For ’26, they are off to a rare positive start, 83-103 for +5.83 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect. However, it has lost almost 4 units in the last two weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 129-102 for -3.08 units and an ROI of -1.3%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The ’26 record is 37-19 for -5.79 units, ROI -10.3%.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 32-19 but for -14.34 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative FADE system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 21-14 start for -10.14 units, and a ROI of -28.9%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 153-190 for -19.31 units. This ROI of -5.6% is still highly advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For ’26 so far, these teams are 128-80 for +32.82 units, a ROI of +15.8%. Upon request, we have begun tracking these on the VSiN Analytics Reports daily.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 97-119 start for -17.02 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 40-56 for -15.82 units and an ROI of -16.5%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in ’26, and it is now 75-80 for +5.51 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 87-79 for -21.85 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 59-60 for -16.78 units. These are lesser numbers, but June could hopefully mark a turning point, as we saw a 17-5 mark over the last three weeks for +12.92 units.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 6/21)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. ATLANTA: 2.9
2. SAN DIEGO: 3.11
3. BOSTON: 3.16
4. MIAMI: 3.36
5. NY METS: 3.4
6. SEATTLE: 3.43
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. MINNESOTA: 5.22
29. COLORADO: 5.13
28. ATHLETICS: 5.02
27. KANSAS CITY: 4.85
26. CINCINNATI: 4.81
25. WASHINGTON: 4.67
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.1
2. BOSTON: 1.17
3. MIAMI: 1.18
4. NY METS: 1.19
5. SAN DIEGO: 1.22
6. LA DODGERS: 1.22
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. MINNESOTA: 1.54
29. CINCINNATI: 1.52
28. KANSAS CITY: 1.51
27. COLORADO: 1.49
26. LA ANGELS: 1.47
25. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.43
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.39
2. PHILADELPHIA: 9.83
3. LA DODGERS: 9.77
4. MIAMI: 9.49
5. MILWAUKEE: 9.49
6. PITTSBURGH: 9.37
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.03
29. TEXAS: 7.44
28. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.82
27. ARIZONA: 7.84
26. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.95
25. ST LOUIS: 8.09
Top 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. MIAMI: 0.67
2. HOUSTON: 0.86
3. BOSTON: 0.94
4. NY YANKEES: 0.96
5. DETROIT: 0.99
6. TAMPA BAY: 1.03
Worst 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. TORONTO: 1.78
29. ST LOUIS: 1.76
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.68
27. COLORADO: 1.65
26. CLEVELAND: 1.56
25. ATHLETICS: 1.55
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (6/15):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. MIAMI: +10 points
2. CINCINNATI: +8
3. DETROIT: +7
4. HOUSTON: +6
5. COLORADO +4
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. ATHLETICS: -14 points
2. CHI WHITE SOX: -6
2. CHICAGO CUBS: -6
2. PITTSBURGH: -6
2. TEXAS: -6
6. ARIZONA: -5
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/22)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. ATLANTA: 30
2. SAN DIEGO: 27
3. LA DODGERS: 23
4. BOSTON: 22
5. MIAMI: 21
6. NY YANKEES: 18
7. MILWAUKEE: 15
8. DETROIT: 14
9. NY METS: 14
10. CLEVELAND: 12
11. SEATTLE: 10
12. PHILADELPHIA: 8
13. TORONTO: 7
14. HOUSTON: 7
15. CHICAGO CUBS: 6
16. TEXAS: 6
17. LA ANGELS: 4
18. TAMPA BAY: 3
19. ARIZONA: 3
20. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 2
21. ATHLETICS: -5
22. ST LOUIS: -6
23. SAN FRANCISCO: -7
24. BALTIMORE: -10
25. KANSAS CITY: -10
26. WASHINGTON: -13
27. PITTSBURGH: -15
28. MINNESOTA: -21
29. CINCINNATI: -23
30. COLORADO: -24
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
