Panama vs Croatia | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group L | Tuesday, June 23 | 7PM EST | BMO Field | Toronto
Panama (+550) | Draw (+310) | Croatia (-185)
Over 2.5 Goals (-115) | Under 2.5 Goals (-110)
Panama +0.5 (+155) | Croatia -0.5 (-200)
Both Panama and Croatia suffered defeat on Matchday 1 and go into this match knowing a repeat will likely eliminate them from the competition.
Los Canaleros created several chances throughout and were desperately unfortunate not to take a point, with Cecilio Waterman’s effort kept out by a fine save, Jiovany Ramos skying a good opportunity over the bar and Cristian Martinez dragging an effort wide into the side netting, only to be ruthlessly punished by Ghana’s 95th-minute winner.
Croatia showed plenty of fight in the first half, twice drawing level through Martin Baturina and Petar Musa’s volley just before half-time, but were tactically undone after the break — failing to deal with England’s direct play and intensity as Jude Bellingham and substitute Marcus Rashford sealed a 4-2 defeat. Dalić admitted his side “reacted poorly” to England’s second-half pressure.
With Panama and Croatia both pointless in Group L, Tuesday evening’s clash in Toronto is effectively a knockout game for both sides.
PANAMA TEAM NEWS
Thomas Christiansen has no injury concerns with his squad coming into this game. Needing a result, he could be tempted to change shape, but more likely he sticks with the 3-4-3 that kept Ghana at bay and turns to his bench in the latter stages.
Carlos Harvey and Cesar Blackman both picked up a booking against Ghana and must avoid one here or they’ll miss out on their side’s final group game against England.
Panama Predicted Lineup 3-4-3
Manager: Thomas Christiansen
GK: O. Mosquera
CB: J. Ramos | CB: J. Córdoba | CB: A. Andrade
RWB: A. Murillo | CM: C. Harvey | CM: Y. Bárcenas (C) | LWB: C. Blackman
RW: C. Martínez | CF: C. Waterman | LF: J. L. Rodríguez
CROATIA TEAM NEWS
Zlatko Dalić has no injury or suspension concerns heading into the game after none of his players picked up a yellow card against England.
With Croatia favored, expect Mateo Kovačić to be restored to the starting lineup alongside Luka Modrić in central midfield. Andrej Kramarić will be named as a substitute again, with the younger Martin Baturina keeping his spot after getting on the scoresheet against England — though the 35-year-old offers real quality from the bench, having scored 15 and provided 8 assists across 36 appearances for Hoffenheim this season.
Croatia Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Zlatko Dalić
GK: D. Livaković
RB: J. Stanišić | CB: J. Šutalo | CB: D. Ćaleta-Car | LB: J. Gvardiol
CM: L. Modrić (C) | CM: M. Kovačić
RM: P. Sučić | AM: M. Baturina | LM: I. Perišić
CF: A. Budimir
MATCH BREAKDOWN
For Panama, this is simple: a defeat here books their flight home if England avoid defeat to Ghana. Their only lifeline would be a Ghana win over England – but even then, survival would hinge on Christiansen’s side pulling off one of the biggest results in Panama’s history against one of the tournament favorites.
Against Ghana, Panama showed they’re capable of creating chances – 11 shots and two big chances totaling 0.73 xG – they simply couldn’t convert. They’ll fancy their chances of finding the net here against a Croatia defense that has failed to keep a clean sheet in its last seven games – a run that includes conceding at home to the Faroe Islands.
Against England, Dalić’s side were taken apart, allowing 4 goals, 7 big chances, 22 shots and 3.20 xG. That was largely down to their inability to live with England in the second half, the Three Lions raising the tempo, using their quality and physicality to run away with it.
These are signs that the sun is all but set on this golden generation and it’s difficult to see them repeating the heroics of the 2018 final and 2022 semi-final. That said, the squad still carries a solid blend of veterans and emerging talent that could see them progress to the last 16 if they make it out of the group and land in a favorable bracket.
A draw sends nobody home but suits nobody either. Expect both to take risks.
THE BET
The physical numbers explain why Croatia’s second-half collapse should worry them here. England overran them, covering 102.2 km across the 90 minutes compared to their 98.9 km. Panama, in their own opener, went even further – 106.2 km against Ghana – and they did it at BMO Field with a 7PM local kick-off, the exact venue and time slot awaiting both sides on Tuesday.
The conditions line up too: that June 17 evening was mild and comfortable at 21-23°C, and Tuesday’s forecast is near-identical – sunny, around 23°C, light winds and just a 12% chance of rain per The Weather Network. In other words, Panama have already proven they can run all night in these conditions.
The concern compounds in midfield, where Modrić managed only 58 minutes against England in a closed-roof, climate-controlled stadium. At 40 years old, can we really expect him to last much longer here? Once his influence fades and legs tire, I think we’ll see Panama ask questions of this leaky Croatian defense. Combine that with both sides needing a victory and that’s exactly why I’m backing goals, with both teams to get on the scoresheet.
Pick: Same Game Parlay Both Teams to Score YES and Over 2.5 Goals +136
