MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for September 15:
The football season keeps us all at VSiN quite busy, but if you follow the VSiN X account or mine, you will see that we are still continuously offering up great betting information for the MLB stretch drive. I am grateful that this remains a focus, because to be quite honest, my baseball betting has been a lot better than my football betting over the last few weeks. In keeping up with the subject of continuing to offer up winning baseball trends, systems, and much more, I have put together another MLB Bullpen Systems report. Hopefully, you’ve continued to follow these great foundational angles from our MLB Analytics Report, because it has been a solid month so far. In fact, this past week was the biggest one of the season for the easiest way to use my bullpen ratings angle, as it enjoyed a 48-32 record for +12.86 units. As usual, when that angle wins, almost every other piece that stems from it also does.
In this report, which I’m going to make a bit shorter cause of a football time crunch, I will detail the highlights of last week, plus update all of the key system records, bullpen stats, and I will reveal my latest team bullpen ratings.
I think one thing you definitely want to consider over the next couple of weeks, as we wrap up the baseball regular season, especially if you’re focused on bullpens, is to keep track of which teams’ relief staffs are possibly getting overworked. I still believe that this is a time of the year when the cream rises to the top, so don’t ignore the overall bullpen numbers, but do consider usage, availability of stars, and recency when looking at the performance data. For the most part, my bullpen ratings do take into account those things, but I consider myself somewhat conservative when moving teams’ ratings. That said, Seattle’s bullpen has gotten red-hot, and you will see that they moved 13 points upward on my scale last week. On the other hand, Washington, which had a team bullpen WHIP of 2.20 over the last week, dropped 17 points. Bullpens are crucial at this time of year, and managers in pennant races will be treating this like the postseason. Stay on top of everything you need to.
Looking quickly at the bullpen systems results of last week and the highlights, since there was a massive return of +12.86 units on the easiest system, a lot of the other angles fell in line. Among the highlights from the past seven days:
– Correlation system #3 had a nice week, the one indicating to back teams with both elite starting pitcher ratings and elite bullpen ratings, as backing these teams would have given you a 13-8 mark for +2.68 units.
– I indicated that this is a time of the year when the cream should rise to the top. Our BP system indicated backing huge favorites of -190 or more with better bullpen ratings and winning >=19% more of their games than their opponents went 6-1 for +3.26 units.
– Conversely, from just above, those huge favorites of -190 or more that had better bullpen ratings but their starting pitcher edge didn’t reach 20 points, those teams have struggled as predicted, 1-5 for -9.62 units in September.
– Teams with worse bullpen ratings and on 3+ game losing streaks kept losing generally last week and gave back -4.66 units.
– Teams with better bullpen ratings looking to extend 3+ game winning streaks brought in +3.03 units.
– Better SM Bullpen teams looking to thwart at least 3-game losing streaks added +5.43 units, continuing their post all-star break surge.
If you’re new to VSiN for the football season, and thus new to this MLB Bullpen Systems Report, to fully implement these bullpen focused strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. Of course, you can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our awesome VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 9/14:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 1040-935 for -27.27 units and a ROI of -1.4% so far in the regular season. We achieved a return of 12.86 units over the last seven days, which turned out to be one of the best weeks of the season. Even with the negative -1.4% ROI, when you consider that almost 2,000 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, the advantage of this angle over simply blindly playing teams is noteworthy. In fact, the average MLB bettor not using it and playing all MLB games this season would theoretically be down over -120 units, or -6.1% ROI. Thus, this methodology, without any other things considered, gives an advantage of 4.7%.
Although I always remind readers that easiest isn’t always best, the slightly negative returns on 1,975 games validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, most or all are still faring very well. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles are new to the bullpen analysis and new to the daily reports, as of about a month ago now. I have named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the updated record of these four angles we are now regularly tracking:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 64-62 for -13.99 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -11.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 169-216 for -44.97 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.7%. Even though we’ve lost some steam on fading these teams lately, it has become a very reliable part of this report.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 330-201 for +17.89 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +3.4%. This angle brought us another +2.68 units last week.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 139-250 for -32.01 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.2%!
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 193-129 for +43.59 units, and an ROI of +13.5%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 109-54 for -11.39 units. We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual. Last week, these teams lost another -1.9 units.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams have had a very strong season, 126-43 for +18 units, an ROI of +10.7%. Last week, they were 6-1 for +3.26 units.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams finally went negative this past week, 78-37 for -3.54 units for the season. I indicated a couple of weeks ago that September is typically a month where we see more of these plays qualifying daily due to favorite overpricing. So far this month, these qualifiers are 1-5 for -9.62 units!
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. We gained +2.3 units last week to bring the season record to 419-450 for +42.75 units, ROI +4.9%!
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are back in the black, now 340-374 for +3.08 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, after a strangely strong two-week surge, they are 202-199 for +12.03 units (ROI 3.0%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so this year’s results are eye-opening, now 97-93, -0.01 units.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 181-239 for -16.42 units, a R.O.I. of -3.9%. These teams, which we love fading, lost -4.62 units last week.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 229-180 for +8.18 units (ROI 2.0%). We gained +3.03 units here over the last seven days.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has endured an up-and-down season but is now 108-89 for +0.73 units. This angle has been a bit of a disappointment overall, but it has gotten back +13.32 units since the ASB, including +5.43 units on a 6-1 record last week.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind that the bullpen systems are just one small part of a comprehensive handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings and the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams for the week.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 9/14)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 3.13
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 3.4
3. BOSTON: 3.45
4. CLEVELAND: 3.53
5. ST LOUIS: 3.6
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 5.43
29. COLORADO: 5.3
28. ARIZONA: 4.83
27. LA ANGELS: 4.8
26. MINNESOTA: 4.73
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN DIEGO: 1.16
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.22
3. HOUSTON: 1.22
4. TEXAS: 1.23
5. TAMPA BAY: 1.24
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.52
29. WASHINGTON: 1.51
28. MINNESOTA: 1.43
27. BALTIMORE: 1.43
26. LA ANGELS: 1.42
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.32
2. TAMPA BAY: 9.96
3. TORONTO: 9.78
4. NY YANKEES: 9.48
5. SAN DIEGO: 9.44
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. DETROIT: 7.66
29. COLORADO: 7.73
28. KANSAS CITY: 7.83
27. ARIZONA: 7.99
26. SAN FRANCISCO: 8
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. SEATTLE: 0.64
2. CLEVELAND: 0.78
3. CHICAGO CUBS: 0.86
4. SAN DIEGO: 0.92
5. TEXAS: 0.99
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. WASHINGTON: 2.2
29. BALTIMORE: 1.87
28. NY YANKEES: 1.84
27. MINNESOTA: 1.79
26. ARIZONA: 1.63
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday, 9/8:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. SEATTLE: +17 points
2. CHICAGO CUBS: +10
3. ATHLETICS: +7
3. TEXAS: +7
3. TORONTO: +7
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. WASHINGTON: -13 points
2. ARIZONA: -10
3. HOUSTON: -8
4. MINNESOTA: -7
4. BALTIMORE: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 9/15)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. MILWAUKEE: 30
2. SAN DIEGO: 29
3. CLEVELAND: 24
4. CHICAGO CUBS: 21
5. ATHLETICS: 20
6. SEATTLE: 17
7. BOSTON: 17
8. TAMPA BAY: 16
9. ST LOUIS: 15
10. KANSAS CITY: 14
11. LA DODGERS: 13
12. TEXAS: 13
13. SAN FRANCISCO: 9
14. MIAMI: 9
15. HOUSTON: 8
16. LA ANGELS: 8
17. PITTSBURGH: 7
18. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 7
19. ATLANTA: 6
20. DETROIT: 4
21. BALTIMORE: 4
22. PHILADELPHIA: 3
23. NY YANKEES: 3
24. TORONTO: 3
25. ARIZONA: -8
26. NY METS: -9
27. CINCINNATI: -12
28. MINNESOTA: -20
29. WASHINGTON: -23
30. COLORADO: -35
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are four teams on a 3+ game winning streak (TOR, CLE, SEA, ATH), and four teams on a 3+ game losing skid (BAL, CWS, LAA, CIN).
